Cabinet withdraws ordinance, bill

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Jan 18: To mark the 30th anniversary of the mass exodus of Kashmiri Pandits from the Valley, members of the community took to social media to post videos of themselves by narrating the "Hum Aayenge Apne Watan" dialogue from an upcoming flick, 'Shikara', with the hope that they would return to their homeland one day.

On January 19, 1990, lakhs of Kashmiri Pandits were forced to leave their homes in the Valley following a genocidal campaign launched by the terrorists.

Theatre actor Chandan Sadhu participated in the campaign and said that Kashmiri Pandits have shown "unimaginable resilience" and hope to return to the Valley soon.

"As Kashmiri Pandits complete 30 years in exile this weekend, let our cry for justice be finally noticed. We have shown unimaginable resilience, and today we resolve to return home. Kashmiri Pandit friends: please record this video statement and put it up with #HumWapasAayenge," Sadhu tweeted.

The #HumWapasAayenge is trending on Twitter as more and more Kashmiri Pandits joined in the campaign to narrate the "Hum Aayenge Apne Watan" dialogue and a pledge to return to their homes.

Noted political commentator Sunanda Vashisht tweeted a throwback image of herself and said that resolve to go back home has strengthened more.

"I don't have many pictures left of my childhood. Choosing between life and family albums is really no choice at all. When lives were rescued, family albums got left behind. 30 years have passed. Resolve to go back home has only strengthened. #HumWapasAayenge," she tweeted.

Radio personality Khushboo Mattoo tweeted a video repeating the dialogue from Shikara and tweeted, "Said this in a BBC interview three years back. And I am saying it again #HumWapasAayenge #Shikara."

Journalist Rahul Pandita also took to his Twitter and captioned his post saying, "30 years of exile from Kashmir. Let us now pledge that we will return home."

'Shikara' chronicles the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits from the Valley on the night of January 19, 1990. Helmed by Vidhu Vinod Chopra, the movie is slated to release on February 7.

Netizens have supported the initiative and have expressed solidarity with the Kashmiri Pandits.

In July last year, Home Minister Amit Shah said in the Rajya Sabha that the central government is committed to bringing Kashmiri Pandits and Sufis back to the Valley saying a time will come when they will offer prayers at the famous Kheer Bhawani temple.

"Kashmiri Pandits were forced to leave Kashmir. Many of their shrines were demolished. Sufism was targeted in Jammu and Kashmir. Sufism used to talk about unity and harmony but they were attacked. No voice was raised in favour of Kashmiri Pandits and Sufis when they were brutally attacked. Sufis used to talk about the unity among Hindus and Muslims but they were forced to leave the Valley. Narendra Modi-led government is committed to bringing back Kashmiri Pandits, he had said.

The Mata Kheer Bhawani temple is one of the holiest shrines of Kashmiri Pandits, located about 14 kilometres east of Srinagar.

Last September, a delegation of the Kashmiri Pandit community met the Prime Minister in Houston and thanked him for the historic decision to abrogate Article 370 that gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir.

Modi acknowledged the hardships endured by the community following their exodus from their ancestral homeland back in 1989-1990 due to militancy.

"You have suffered a lot, but the world is changing. We have to move ahead together and build a new Kashmir," the Prime Minister had told the delegation.

"I had a special interaction with Kashmiri Pandits in Houston," Modi had tweeted following the interaction.

In October, Union Minister Prakash Javadekar announced that the Centre has decided to provide compensation of Rs 5.5 lakh each to 5,300 displaced families from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), who initially opted to move outside Jammu and Kashmir but later on returned.

These families were earlier left out in the rehabilitation package that was approved by the Cabinet on November 30, 2016.

The Prime Minister had announced a reconstruction plan for Jammu and Kashmir in November 2016. His plan included a rehabilitation package for a one-time settlement of 36,384 displaced persons' (DPs) families of PoK-1947 and Chhamb.

New Delhi, Jan 16: United Forum of Bank Unions has decided to observe a two-day strike on January 31 and February 1, demanding early wage revision settlement which has been due since November 1, 2017, said the All India Bank Employees Association.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her second Union Budget on February 1.

Banks will also hold a strike on March 11, 12 and 13. Also, an indefinite strike will be held from April 1.

General Secretary, All India Bank Officers' Confederation West Bengal Sanjay Das has stated that the nationwide strike has been called over several demands.

"The demands include--wage revision settlement at 20 per cent hike on payslip components with adequate loading thereof and scrapping off New Pension Scheme (NPS)," said Das.

There are several demands to hold the strike including the merger of special allowance with basic pay, updation of pension, improvement in the family pension system, five-day banking, allocation of staff welfare fund based on operating profits and exemption from income tax on retiral benefits without a ceiling.

"Other demands include-- a uniform definition of business hours, lunch hour etc in the branches, introduction of leave bank, defined working hours for the officers and equal wage for equal work for the contract employee," said Das.