Hardliner Modi boosts India opposition hopes

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Feb 5: Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Tuesday announced that the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Teertha Kshetra, set up by the government for construction of a temple in Ayodhya, will have 15 trustees and one of them will be from the Dalit community.

The statement comes a little over an hour after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced in Lok Sabha about the constitution of the trust.

"There will be 15 trustees in the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Teertha Kshetra Trust out of which one trustee will always be from the Dalit society," he tweeted.

Shah congratulated Modi "for such an unprecedented decision" that strengthens social harmony.

The home minister said the trust will be independent to take every decision related to the temple and 67 acres of land will be transferred to it.

"I fully believe that the waiting of millions of people for centuries will be over soon and they will be able to pay obeisance to Lord Shri Ram in his grand temple at his birthplace," he said.

London, May 14: Fugitive liquor baron Vijay Mallya on Thursday urged the Central government to accept his offer to repay 100 per cent of his loan dues and close the case against him.

While congratulating the Centre for introducing Rs 20 lakh crore relief package to boost the economy amid the coronavirus lockdown, Mallya, lamented that his repeated attempts to pay back his dues have been ignored by the Indian government.

"Congratulations to the Government for a Covid 19 relief package. They can print as much currency as they want BUT should a small contributor like me who offers 100% payback of State-owned Bank loans be constantly ignored? Please take my money unconditionally and close," he tweeted.

Earlier this month, Mallya had sought permission to appeal against a ruling ordering his extradition to India in Britain's highest court the UK Supreme Court.

The application comes two weeks after the High Court in London - the UK's second-highest court - dismissed Mallya's appeal against a lower court ruling that he be sent to India to face charges of defrauding a consortium of Indian banks of more than Rs 9,000 crores relating to the collapse of Kingfisher Airlines in 2012.