VHP Sankalp Diwas rally: BJP MP, 24 others held

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

Washington, Jul 18: The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the US to India has crossed the $40 billion mark so far this year, reflecting the growing confidence of American companies in the country, the head of an India-centric business advocacy group has said.

The American companies, during the Covid-19 pandemic, which has battered the world economy, have shown great confidence in India and its leadership, said Mukesh Aghi, president of the US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF), which keeps a track of the major US FDIs in India.

“Year to date investment from the US, including the recent ones, is over $40 billion,” Aghi said.

In recent weeks alone, the announcement of the FDI into India has been over $20 billion, he said, referring to the announcements made by some of the top companies like Google, Facebook and Walmart.

“Investors’ confidence in India is high. India still remains a very promising market for global investors. If you look at the $20 billion… not just the US, but (investment) has also come from other geographies such as the Middle East and the Far East.

“So, India still remains a very, very bullish market for the investor community,” Aghi said in response to a question.

The USISPF has been working with New Delhi to bring in FDI into India… playing a key role in encouraging American companies planning to move their bases out of China, he said, adding that the move was going on in the last three years of the Trump administration, but gained momentum during the coronavirus pandemic.

“We feel that Prime Minister (Narendra Modi’s) intention is very high. The challenges lie on the execution side. Efforts are being made to encourage manufacturing… I've never seen it so better. The policy framework is moving in the right direction,” he said.

Early this week, Larry Kudlow, the White House Economic Advisor, told reporters that the US tech giants like Google and Facebook announcing big investments in India shows that people are losing trust in China and India is emerging as a big competitor.

At the same time, he rued that India continues to be a protectionist country.

“The question is how do you define protectionism... the administration here is saying America first and India is saying vocal for local…,” Aghi added.

New Delhi, Apr 22: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday said that The Epidemic Diseases (Amendment) Ordinance, 2020, manifests his government's commitment to protecting healthcare workers braving COVID-19 on the frontline.
"The Epidemic Diseases (Amendment) Ordinance, 2020, manifests our commitment to protect each and every healthcare worker, who is bravely battling COVID-19 on the frontline. It will ensure the safety of our professionals. There can be no compromise on their safety!," Prime Minister Modi tweeted.
The Central government on Wednesday brought an ordinance to end the violence against health workers, making it a cognizable, non-bailable offence with the imprisonment of up to seven years for those found guilty.

"We have brought an ordinance under which any attack on health workers will be a cognizable, non-bailable offence. In the case of grievous injuries, the accused can be sentenced from 6 months to 7 years. They can be penalised from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 5 lakh," Union Minister Prakash Javadekar briefed media after the meeting of the Cabinet.

"Such crime will now be cognisable and non-bailable. An investigation will be done within 30 days. Accused can be sentenced from three months to five years, and penalised from Rs 50,000 up to Rs 2 lakh," said Javadekar.

Moreover, if the damage is done to vehicles or clinics of healthcare workers, then a compensation amounting to twice the market value of the damaged property will be taken from the accused, said Javadekar.