RBI raises repo rate by 25 bps, eases rupee support

October 29, 2013

Mumbai, Oct 29: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its policy interest rate for the second time in as many months on Tuesday, warning that inflation is likely to remain elevated for the rest of the fiscal year, and rolled back an emergency measure put in place to support the slumping rupee.

The RBI lifted its policy repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 7.75 percent, in line with the expectations of most analysts in a recent Reuters poll, despite the risks to an economy beset by sluggish growth.raghuram_rajan

"Overall WPI (wholesale price index) inflation is expected to remain higher than current levels through most of the remaining part of the year, warranting an appropriate policy response," RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said in his review.

With the rupee having stabilised, the RBI lowered its Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate a further 25 bps to 8.75 percent, which eases liquidity in the banking system and returns the gap between the repo and MSF rates to the usual 100 basis points.

Rajan, a high-profile former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, took office in early September and stunned markets in his first policy review just weeks later by raising interest rates to combat fierce price pressures dogging Asia's third-largest economy.

Annual food inflation accelerated to 18.4 percent in September, its highest since mid-2010, pushed up by prices of vegetables including onions and stirring public discontent ahead of national elections which must be held by next May.

India's economy grew at 4.4 percent in the June quarter, the slowest since early 2009. The 5 percent growth rate recorded in the last fiscal year through March was the weakest in a decade.

The RBI said it expects the economy to grow at 5 percent in the current fiscal year that ends in March.

The headline wholesale price index (WPI) unexpectedly hit a seven-month high in September of 6.46 percent as food prices surged, while the consumer price index jumped an annual 9.84 percent, spurring expectations for another rate hike.

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July 2,2020

New Delhi, Jul 2: India's COVID-19 tally breached the 6 lakh cases mark with 19,148 new coronavirus cases being reported in the last 24 hours, informed the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Thursday.

The total cases now stand at 6,04,641 of which there are 2,26,947 active cases while 3,59,860 patients have been cured/discharged/migrated.

434 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours taking the number of COVID-19 deaths in the country to 17,834.

Maharashtra, the worst-hit state, has a total of 1,80,298 cases including 8,053 fatalities. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu has 94,049 cases inclusive of 1,264 deaths.

Delhi has 89,802 coronavirus cases including 2,803 deaths.

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May 28,2020

May 28: Congress President Sonia Gandhi on Thursday asked the central government to unlock its coffers and help the needy affected by the coronavirus-induced lockdown.

In a video message posted as part of the Congress' 'Speak Up India' campaign, she lamented that even though the country is passing through a serious economic crisis with loss of livelihood due to the pandemic and the lockdown, the central government has not heard the cries of pain and trauma of people.

"We again urge the Centre to unlock its coffers and help the needy. Put direct cash of Rs 7,500 per month in the account of every family for the next six months and provide Rs 10,000 immediately; ensure safe and free travel of labourers back home, employment opportunity and rations; and also increase the number of work days under MNREGA to 200 days to facilitate jobs in villages," Gandhi said.

"Instead of loans, provide financial relief to small and medium industry so that crores of jobs are saved and the country progresses," she said in her video message on the party's social media handles.

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July 16,2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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