S&P says it may cut India's sovereign rating after Lok Sabha polls

November 7, 2013

Lok_Sabha_pollsMumbai, Nov 7: Standard & Poor's said on Thursday it may cut India's sovereign rating to below investment grade should the next government fail to provide a credible plan to reverse the country's low economic growth.

Alternatively, the credit ratings agency said it may revise India's outlook back to "stable" should a new government have an agenda to restore growth, improve the country's finances, or allow the implementation of an effective monetary policy.

S&P is the only of the three major credit agencies with a "negative" outlook on India. The country is rated "BBB-minus" or its equivalent by these agencies, or the lowest investment-grade rating, meaning it would fall into so-called "junk" territory with any downgrade.

S&P added it will conduct its next review on India's ratings after the elections, which are due by May 2014, unless the country's fiscal or external standing deteriorates.

"The negative outlook indicates that we may lower the rating to speculative grade next year if the government that takes office after the general election does not appear capable of reversing India's low economic growth," S&P said in a statement.

"If we believe that the agenda can restore some of India's lost growth potential, consolidate its fiscal accounts, and permit the conduct of an effective monetary policy, we may revise the outlook to stable. If, however, we see continued policy drift, we may lower the rating within a year."

The credit agency affirmed India at "BBB-minus" on Thursday, citing its low external debt, ample forex reserves and an increasingly credible monetary policy. S&P had cut its outlook on India to "negative" in April last year.

Still, India's economy has been a key drag on its ratings after growth slowed to a decade low of 5 per cent in the fiscal year ended in March. Analysts have widely attributed the middling growth to the government's lack of decisive policy action and high interest rates.

The current account and fiscal deficits are also seen as leaving the country vulnerable to foreign investor sell-offs, most recently in late August when the rupee fell to a record low.

The Sensex nearly gave up all gains to trade 0.2 per cent up on the day from 1.1 per cent after the S&P report. The partially convertible rupee fell to 62.73 per dollar, its weakest since September 30.

"While the overhang of a potential S&P downgrade is not new, it can introduce higher volatility," said Varun Khandelwal, managing partner and director at Bullero Advisors.

"December to April will be critical and most likely markets will shrug off today's statement," he added.

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News Network
June 15,2020

New Delhi, Jun 15: On Monday, petrol and diesel prices across the country were raised for the ninth consecutive day by 48 paise and 59 paise, respectively.

Petrol price per litre was raised to Rs 76.26 in New Delhi, Rs 83.17 in Mumbai, Rs 79.96 in Chennai, Rs 79.17 in Hyderabad, Rs 78.73 in Bengaluru and Rs 78.10 in Kolkata.

Diesel price per litre was hiked to Rs 74.62 in New Delhi, Rs 73.21 in Mumbai, Rs 72.69 in Chennai, Rs 72.93 in Hyderabad, Rs 70.95 in Bengaluru and Rs 70.33 in Kolkata.

Since 7 June, after ending their 82-day hiatus in daily revision, state-owned oil marketing companies have increased petrol price by Rs 5 per litre and diesel by Rs 5.23 per litre.

These prices are close to levels last seen in October-November 2018 when international oil prices had spiked close to $80 per barrel. In October 2018, petrol price in Mumbai had crossed Rs 90-mark and in Delhi, it was around Rs 83 per litre.

Comparatively, on Monday, Brent crude, the international benchmark for crude oil prices, fell 2.3 percent to $37.84 a barrel over concerns of subdued demand for fuel as new coronavirus infections were reported in China and the US.

The present spike in fuel prices in India could be attributed to the fact that central and state governments, along with oil marketing companies are looking to make up for their loss in revenues due to the lockdown.

Last month, the central government had increased the excise duty on per litre of petrol by Rs 10 and per litre of diesel by Rs 13. Several state governments have also hiked their VAT or cess on fuel in the last month. In fact, now around 70 percent of the retail price of fuel is just some form of tax.

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News Network
March 16,2020

Mar 16: An investigation into Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd., initiated by its board after the death of founder V.G. Siddhartha, is likely to conclude that at least Rs 2,000 crore is missing from its accounts, according to people familiar with the matter.

The months-long probe following the suicide of Siddhartha in July examined the financial transactions of India’s largest coffee chain and its dealings with dozens of private companies owned by the entrepreneur. The draft report, running more than a hundred pages, points to thousands of rupees that have gone missing, said the people, asking not to be named because the details aren’t public. It also details hundreds of transactions between the founder’s listed and personal businesses that were not conducted at arm’s length, they said.

Though the report is in its final stages, the precise details could change before its release, expected as early as this week, the people said. The missing funds could total more than Rs 2500 crore, one person said.

“The investigation report is still a work in progress, and not finalized,” a spokesman for the company said. “The board of directors and the company are unaware of its content at this point of time. Hence it would be premature to speculate on the investigation findings.”

The priority for management and Siddhartha’s family “is to keep the business running in a challenging environment and meet all stakeholder commitments, including 30,000 jobs associated with the group,” the spokesman added.

The disappearance of the 59-year-old founder last year stunned India’s business community. He had last been seen telling his driver he was going for an evening walk along a bridge in southern India; his body was found by local fishermen two days later. A letter delivered to Coffee Day’s board and employees, which appeared to be signed by Siddhartha, described massive debts and complained of pressure from lenders and tax authorities. It claimed he bore sole responsibility for the company’s financial transactions.

The probe began about a month later when the company brought in Ashok Kumar Malhotra, a retired senior official from India’s federal enforcement agency, to investigate. A senior lawyer practicing in India’s top court is assisting, the company said in a regulatory filing at the time.

The publicly traded Coffee Day was supposed to be India’s answer to Starbucks Corp. More than 1,500 of its Café Coffee Day outlets blanketed cities and highways, with affordable options for the country’s aspiring middle classes. The chain’s tagline: “A lot can happen over coffee.”

But the empire has been battered since the founder’s death. Its shares plummeted about 90% and its market value dropped to about $80 million. Trading was suspended in February.

India’s regulators are tracking the situation and may use the company’s final report as part of a deeper dive into its internal affairs, the people said. Coffee Day showed about Rs 2400 crore in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet as of March 2019, the most recent figures the company has issued.

After the death of Siddhartha however, the company faced a severe liquidity crunch and had “zero cash in the bank,” according to one of the people. It struggled with day-to-day expenses and paying salaries has been a strain, the person said.

The draft report details personal guarantees by Siddhartha for loans taken by Coffee Day, and his unsecured loans at high interest rates from local money lenders, the people said. It also probes Coffee Day’s defaults to coffee growers and other vendors, they said.

A related issue is that coffee estates owned by Siddhartha and several employees had been used as collateral for bank loans. The report found that valuations for properties were inflated to get the loans, one person said.

Investigators have examined several theories about what happened to the company’s money, including whether Coffee Day was manipulating its finances to show cash and profit and whether Siddhartha was taking cash out of the listed company to pay off a large investor to whom he had guaranteed a return, the person said. From the filings of his listed and private companies, the entrepreneur’s loans had totaled more than Rs 10,000 crore, and he had been squeezed by borrowing to repay interest on earlier loans, the person said.

In the letter purportedly from Siddhartha, the entrepreneur said he had tried his best but failed as an entrepreneur. “I am solely responsible for all mistakes,” the letter read. “Every financial transaction is my responsibility. My team, auditors and senior management are totally unaware of all my transactions. The law should hold me and only me accountable, as I have withheld this information from everybody including my family.”

As the report nears release, Coffee Day is finalizing a deal with Blackstone Group Inc. for real estate assets. A large tranche of the payment is due in about a week, one person said.

Coffee Day said it is working to reduce its debt load by divesting non-core enterprises.

“The aim is to save employment and preserve this iconic Indian brand,” the spokesman said.

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Agencies
May 4,2020

Mumbai, May 4: Days after Facebook, private equity firm Silver Lake said it will invest 56.56 billion rupees ($746.74 million) in Reliance Industries's digital arm, giving it a valuation of 4.90 trillion rupees. Silver Lake on Monday agreed to pay Rs 5,655.75 crore to buy 1.15 per cent stake in the firm that houses billionaire Mukesh Ambani's telecom arm Jio.

The investment in Jio Platforms comes within days of Facebook investing USD 5.7 billion to buy a 9.99 per cent stake in Jio Platforms. The investment is at a premium of 12.5 per cent to the Facebook deal.

"This investment values Jio Platforms at an equity value of Rs 4.90 lakh crore and an enterprise value of Rs 5.15 lakh crore and represents a 12.5 per cent premium to the equity valuation of the Facebook investment announced on April 22, 2020," Reliance said in a statement.

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