Euro 2012: May the best team win. Or not

June 21, 2012

sports-lead-euro


Paris, June 21: Euro 2012 has been nothing if not entertaining, with plenty of goals, thrills and spills and assorted controversies from racism to goals not being given that should have been -- with Greece adding the surprise factor.


With the quarter-final line-up now known, the football fan might feel entitled to ask a nagging question: "Will the best team win?"

If this season in general has been anything to go by the answer is likely to be: "Probably not."


International football can be a crabbier affair than its domestic equivalent -- witness the difference in pace between the frenetic English Premier League, even with its foreign stars, and an England team which can verge on the pedestrian.

Yet a parallel is emerging between the international games as witnessed by the European championships and the Champions League, widely seen as the pinnacle of what the game has to offer at any level.

For many observers, Barcelona rank in terms of pure talent as the outstanding club team in Europe, with Bayern Munich not too far behind. But it was Chelsea who denied both to land last season's Champions League against all the odds.

Barca may have had 80 percent possession and 42 attempts on goal to 11 for their rivals over two games, yet it was the Londoners who advanced to the final.


There, Bayern cruised home in statistical terms -- but lost on penalties.

At Euro 2012, there are several indications the "best" team doesn't always win.

England topped Group D after beating Ukraine, yet the hosts enjoyed 62.5 percent of second-half possession, as well as a "goal" that wasn't given, despite crossing the line.

France, on the other hand, boasted a 23-game unbeaten run before losing to a Sweden side who showed flashes of brilliance with a lethal Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

But it was England who cruised into the final eight to face Italy instead of Spain.


Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper was confused on Wednesday, asking: "England top of the pile, Spain dodged and Rooney scoring the winner. Who makes this stuff up?"


Group A was another case in point.

On the evidence of the first matches, Russia looked streets ahead of their rivals after swatting the Czech Republic 4-1, only to crash out to a Greek side who, as in their 2004 glory year, most pundits had discounted after they lost to... the Czechs.

The Netherlands came in as one of the sides with the most impressive qualifying records and the pedigree of former champions.

It came as a surprise, then, that the 1988 winners lost all three of their matches, lumping their non-achievement this time round with that of the Republic of Ireland.

Football is not an exact science but quantitative analysis should act as some kind of guide.


After all, have Germany and Brazil, as the "best" teams in history, not tended to re-establish the natural order of things by winning more often than anybody else?

British scientist John Maddox chose a landmark year to carry out a study for Nature magazine.


In 1966, the year England beat West Germany to win their only World Cup, Maddox wrote an article "We wuz robbed" (We were robbed) and established the chances of a draw at just 0.27 -- or statistically 27 in 100 matches.

He then mused on what that meant for the remaining matches.


"In other words, if two teams are equally matched, the chance that the result will be an active injustice to one of them will be 0.73."

One might object that the term "equally matched" is subjective and only relative -- but few fans would stop to reason as much if their team has just lost a close game.

Maddox went further in establishing that "a team which is slightly less skilled than its opponent can nevertheless expect a one in three chance of winning the deciding match" -- what one might today perhaps call the Chelsea factor.

He suggested redesigning certain parameters of the game to flatten the effect of such a perceived "injustice", including a series of matches for finals, as happens in the Major League Baseball World Series.

Failing that, Maddox suggested altering the game itself, "possibly by widening the goalposts or by abolishing goalkeepers".

And UEFA think goal-line technology is controversial.



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News Network
June 1,2020

Jun 1: Premier India pacer Jasprit Bumrah won't miss the hugs and high-fives as part of a wicket celebration but he will certainly miss applying saliva on the ball and feels an alternative should be provided to maintain the red cherry.

The ICC Cricket Committee, led by former India captain Anil Kumble, recommended a ban on using saliva on the ball as an interim measure to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Committee did not allow the use of artificial substances as a substitute move.

The new rule makes life tougher for the bowlers and Bumrah, like many former and current fast bowlers, feels there ought to be an alternative.

"I was not much of a hugger anyway and not a high-five person as well, so that doesn't trouble me a lot. The only thing that interests me is the saliva bit," said Bumrah in a chat with Ian Bishop and Shaun Pollock on ICC's video series 'Inside Out'.

"I don't know what guidelines we'll have to follow when we come back, but I feel there should be an alternative," he added.

Bumrah said not being able to use saliva makes the game more batsman-friendly.

"If the ball is not well maintained, it's difficult for the bowlers. The grounds are getting shorter and shorter, the wickets are becoming flattered and flatter.

"So we need something, some alternative for the bowlers to maintain the ball so that it can do something - maybe reverse in the end or conventional swing."

When former West Indian pacer Bishop pointed out that the conditions have been favorable to the fast bowlers over the last couple of years, Bumrah nodded in agreement.

"In Test match cricket, yes. That is why it's my favorite format because we have something over there. But in one-day cricket and T20 cricket… one-day cricket there are two new balls, so it hardly reverses at the end.

"We played in New Zealand, the ground (boundary) was 50 metres. So even if you are not looking to hit a six, it will go for six. In Test matches I have no problem, I'm very happy with the way things are going."

He finds it amusing that the batsmen keep complaining about the swinging ball.

"Whenever you play, I've heard the batsmen - not in our team, everywhere - complaining the ball is swinging. But the ball is supposed to swing! The ball is supposed to do something! We are not here just to give throwdowns, isn't it? (laughter)

"This is what I tell batsmen all the time. In one-day cricket, when did the ball reverse last, I don't know. Nowadays the new ball doesn't swing a lot as well. So whenever I see batsmen say the ball is swinging or seaming and that is why I got out - the ball is supposed to do that.

"Because it doesn't happen so much in the other formats, it's a new thing for the batsmen when the ball is swinging or seaming," said the 26-year-old.

The Ahmedabad-born pacer finds himself in an unusual position as he has not bowled for over two months due to the lockdown imposed in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.

When India will play next is not clear yet and Bumrah said he is not sure about how his body will hold up when he returns to action.

"I really don't know how your body reacts when you don't bowl for two months, three months. I'm trying to keep up with training so that as soon as the grounds open up, the body is in decent shape.

"I've been training almost six days a week but I've not bowled for a long period of time so I don't know how the body will react when I bowl the first ball.

"I'm looking at it as a way to renew your own body. We'll never get such a break again, so even if you have a small niggle here and there, you can be a refreshed person when you come back. You can prolong your career," he said.

Bumrah has risen rapidly in international cricket despite experts having reservations about his longevity due to his unorthodox action.

The gritty fast bowler sees similarities in his career graph to Swedish football star Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

"Our personalities are different. But the story I could relate to is that not many people thought he would make it big. There was a similar case with me growing up as well.

"Wherever I went, it was the general feedback from people that 'this guy would not do anything, he would not be a top-rated bowler, he won't be able to play for a long period of time with this kind of action'.

"So, having the self-belief is important and the only validation that is required is your own validation. I saw that in his (Ibrahimovic's) story, so that's the thing I could relate to," added Bumrah.

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News Network
April 9,2020

New Delhi, Apr 9: The legendary Kapil Dev on Thursday slammed Shoaib Akhtar's idea of a made-for-television three-match ODI series between India and Pakistan to raise funds for the Covid19 pandemic, saying "India doesn't need the money" and it is not worth risking lives for a cricket match.

Speaking to news agency, Akhtar on Wednesday proposed a closed-door series to jointly raise funds to fight the deadly virus both in India and Pakistan. Dev said the proposal is not feasible.

"He is entitled to his opinion but we don't need to raise the money. We have enough. For us, what is important right now is how our authorities work together to deal with this crisis. I am still seeing a lot of blame game on television from the politicians and that needs to stop," Dev said.

"Anyway, the BCCI has donated a hefty amount (Rs 51 crore) for the cause and is in a position to donate much more if the need arises. It doesn't need to raise funds.

"The situation is unlikely to get normal anytime soon and organising a cricket game means putting our cricketers at risk which we don't need to," said the World Cup-winning former captain.

Dev said cricket should not even matter for at least the next six months.

"It is just not worth the risk. And how much money can you make from three games? In my view, you can't even think of cricket for the next five to six months," he said.

Dev said the focus, at the moment, should only be on saving lives and taking care of the poor who are struggling to make ends meet in a lockdown situation.

"Cricket will resume when things get normal. The game can't be bigger than the country. The pressing issue is to look after the poor, the hospital workers, the police and all other people who are on the frontline of this war," said the 61-year-old.

As an Indian, Dev feels proud that his country is in a position help other nations including the United States.

President Donald Trump has thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for helping the United States with the supply of hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug being touted as a potential cure for Covid19 patients.

"Helping others is in our culture and I feel proud about that. We should not seek credit after helping others. We should strive to become a nation which gives more and more rather than taking from others," he said.

Like everyone else, Dev is at home and practising social distancing.

Asked how he views the current situation, he said: "Nelson Mandela stayed in a tiny cell for 27 years. Compared to that, we are in a privileged position (that we just have to stay at home for sometime)."

"There is nothing bigger than life at the moment and that is what we need to save."

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News Network
January 9,2020

Mumbai, Jan 9: Former India all-rounder Irfan Pathan feels that the Men in Blue have the edge over Australia in terms of talent and confidence ahead of the two teams' three-match ODI series starting January 14 in Mumbai.

"In the past that wasn't the case because they were doing really well. We were trying to match that level. I feel that Indian cricket is a notch ahead in terms of talent, in terms of cricket and in terms of confidence," Star Sports expert Irfan Pathan said. "The only thing that will make it equal is the kind of pitches we are going to play in Australia because we do not have experience playing on those hard and bouncy pitches," said Pathan, who recently called time on his international career.

Recounting his favourite memory of playing against Australia, Irfan said, "It all started in Australia for me. The most memorable moment was getting my first wicket and helping India win a Test match in Australia after 21 years. Winning the Test in Perth and being named the Man of the Match is also a favourite memory for me."

Australia have already announced their team for the three-match ODI series with India. The team will be led by Aaron Finch. The other members of the team are Ashton Agar, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Marnus Labuschagne, Kane Richardson, D'Arcy Short, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Ashton Turner, David Warner, and Adam Zampa.

India are yet to announce their team but in all probability, it will be led by Virat Kohli who has been in phenomenal form over the last few years. All three ODIs are day and night affair. While the first match of the series is on January 14 in Mumbai, the second will be played at Rajkot on January 17 followed by the January 19 clash in Bengaluru.

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