Euro 2012: May the best team win. Or not

June 21, 2012

sports-lead-euro


Paris, June 21: Euro 2012 has been nothing if not entertaining, with plenty of goals, thrills and spills and assorted controversies from racism to goals not being given that should have been -- with Greece adding the surprise factor.


With the quarter-final line-up now known, the football fan might feel entitled to ask a nagging question: "Will the best team win?"

If this season in general has been anything to go by the answer is likely to be: "Probably not."


International football can be a crabbier affair than its domestic equivalent -- witness the difference in pace between the frenetic English Premier League, even with its foreign stars, and an England team which can verge on the pedestrian.

Yet a parallel is emerging between the international games as witnessed by the European championships and the Champions League, widely seen as the pinnacle of what the game has to offer at any level.

For many observers, Barcelona rank in terms of pure talent as the outstanding club team in Europe, with Bayern Munich not too far behind. But it was Chelsea who denied both to land last season's Champions League against all the odds.

Barca may have had 80 percent possession and 42 attempts on goal to 11 for their rivals over two games, yet it was the Londoners who advanced to the final.


There, Bayern cruised home in statistical terms -- but lost on penalties.

At Euro 2012, there are several indications the "best" team doesn't always win.

England topped Group D after beating Ukraine, yet the hosts enjoyed 62.5 percent of second-half possession, as well as a "goal" that wasn't given, despite crossing the line.

France, on the other hand, boasted a 23-game unbeaten run before losing to a Sweden side who showed flashes of brilliance with a lethal Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

But it was England who cruised into the final eight to face Italy instead of Spain.


Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper was confused on Wednesday, asking: "England top of the pile, Spain dodged and Rooney scoring the winner. Who makes this stuff up?"


Group A was another case in point.

On the evidence of the first matches, Russia looked streets ahead of their rivals after swatting the Czech Republic 4-1, only to crash out to a Greek side who, as in their 2004 glory year, most pundits had discounted after they lost to... the Czechs.

The Netherlands came in as one of the sides with the most impressive qualifying records and the pedigree of former champions.

It came as a surprise, then, that the 1988 winners lost all three of their matches, lumping their non-achievement this time round with that of the Republic of Ireland.

Football is not an exact science but quantitative analysis should act as some kind of guide.


After all, have Germany and Brazil, as the "best" teams in history, not tended to re-establish the natural order of things by winning more often than anybody else?

British scientist John Maddox chose a landmark year to carry out a study for Nature magazine.


In 1966, the year England beat West Germany to win their only World Cup, Maddox wrote an article "We wuz robbed" (We were robbed) and established the chances of a draw at just 0.27 -- or statistically 27 in 100 matches.

He then mused on what that meant for the remaining matches.


"In other words, if two teams are equally matched, the chance that the result will be an active injustice to one of them will be 0.73."

One might object that the term "equally matched" is subjective and only relative -- but few fans would stop to reason as much if their team has just lost a close game.

Maddox went further in establishing that "a team which is slightly less skilled than its opponent can nevertheless expect a one in three chance of winning the deciding match" -- what one might today perhaps call the Chelsea factor.

He suggested redesigning certain parameters of the game to flatten the effect of such a perceived "injustice", including a series of matches for finals, as happens in the Major League Baseball World Series.

Failing that, Maddox suggested altering the game itself, "possibly by widening the goalposts or by abolishing goalkeepers".

And UEFA think goal-line technology is controversial.



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Agencies
May 26,2020

Some of the ICC guidelines on resumption of cricket border on the impractical and will need a review when the cricketing world is closer to action, feel former players Aakash Chopra, Irfan Pathan and Monty Panesar.

Last week, the International Cricket Council recommended a host of "back to cricket" guidelines including 14-day pre-match isolation training camps to ensure the teams are free from COVID-19.

The world body issued training as well as playing guidelines which will drastically change the way the game is played.

Among them are regular hand sanitising when in contact with the ball, no loo or shower breaks while training, minimising time spent in the changing room before and after a game, no use of saliva on ball and no handing over of personal items (cap, sunglasses, towels) to fellow teammates or the on-field umpires.

"Social distancing is very doable in individual sport but very tough in a team sport like cricket and football. If you need a slip during the game, would you not employ it?

"If the team is going through a 14-day quarantine and is being tested for COVID-19, I am fine with that process. Now, after that, if we have more guidelines for the players during the game, then you are making things complicated. Then there is no point of a quarantine period," former India pacer Pathan told PTI.

Safety cannot be compromised but regularly sanitising hands during the game will be too much to ask from the players.

"Safety is paramount but we should not make the game complicated. If a bowler or fielder has to sanitise hands every time he touches the ball, then it would be very difficult.

"You can shorten the process of giving the ball to the bowler. Instead of the usual chain (wicket-keeper to cover fielder to bowler), the keeper can straight away give the ball to the bowler but even then the bowler will have to sanitise hands six times in an over," said Pathan seeking more clarity on the guidelines.

Former India opener Chopra said it is still pre-mature to prepare a fixed set of guidelines for resumption of cricket as the situation is evolving "every day".

"That (regular hand sanitisation after contact with ball) is obviously impractical but my big question is when the game happens in a bio secure environment and everyone is quarantined and tested, do these additional measures make a difference?

"On the field, I can still understand but what happens when you go back into the dressing room? How do you practice social distancing there? So it becomes quite complicated.

"To be honest it is all very premature. Once they get closer to resumption, which will take some time, there will be more clarity," said Chopra.

International cricket is likely to resume in July with England hosting West Indies and then Pakistan.

Bundesliga football league has already begun in Germany behind closed doors and by the time cricket resumes, more sporting competitions would have restarted and Chopra feels that will help cricket decide the way forward in post COVID-19 times.

"By the time cricket resumes, more football would have started after Bundesliga. Cricket can take lessons from there, collect data and ideas and see what is practical and what is not."

Former England spinner Panesar foresees the start of the England-West Indies series making things a lot clearer for the entire fraternity than they are at the moment.

"The 14 day quarantine is very much needed and well done to the ICC for including that. I think we will see resumption of international cricket with England hosting West Indies in July. We might have some practical ideas then, the other countries would also be watching keenly and will learn how to go about it.

"But measures like regular hand sanitising is not going to be practical. May be you could sanitise every one hour but it can't be regular during the game," said Panesar.

While Pathan feels the on-field safety measures will make managing over-rate a bigger challenge for teams, Chopra said no loo or shower breaks during training won't be that much of an issue.

"Training is still controllable. You don't have to be there for a long time but you would still have to use the restroom at some stage. You may avoid taking a shower but you will have to use the restroom.

"I think the idea of these guidelines is to make cricketers more aware that you have to take care of yourself and inculcate habits which are in everyone's interest in the current scenario," added Chopra.

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Agencies
June 7,2020

New Delhi, Jun 7: Former Pakistan spinner Danish Kaneria on Sunday said that Sourav Ganguly would be fit to lead the International Cricket Council (ICC), and added there is no reason for respective cricket boards to not support Ganguly if he wants to hold the post.

In an interaction with media, the former spinner said Ganguly has all the qualities of leading the ICC as he has been a reputed cricketer and knows what a player goes through in his life.

"I also think that it would be really helpful if Sourav Ganguly goes on to lead ICC, it will help cricket and the players as a reputed cricketer will hold such a big post, he has played professional cricket, he has led the Indian side and he has also held an administrative post in the Cricket Association of Bengal," Kaneria told media.

"It depends on all of the boards whether they want to support Ganguly or not, if other boards support Ganguly and PCB doesn't, then also Ganguly would have the maximum number of votes, as a cricketer Ganguly is fit to lead the ICC, he had led the Indian side so well and he has earned a name for himself, so I don't see any reason for boards not supporting Ganguly," he added.

Ganguly had become the president of the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) last year, but speculation continued to rise over the former skipper heading the ICC.

"He is currently the president of the BCCI, he knows in and out of everything, he knows what players have to deal with and he is aware of what cricket needs, he knows what support needs to be given to associate nations, players would be able to put forward their point in front of Ganguly," Kaneria said.

In May this year, Cricket South Africa's (CSA) director of cricket Graeme Smith had backed Ganguly to lead the ICC looking at the current scenario.

"Now it is even more important to have someone in a role who can provide leadership who understands and can navigate the challenges in the game today. I think post-COVID with the things that are going to come our way, to have strong leadership is important. I feel that someone like Sourav Ganguly is best positioned for that at the moment," sport24.co.za had quoted Smith as saying.

"I know him well, I played against him a number of times and worked with him as an administrator and in television. I feel that he has got the credibility, the leadership skills, and is someone that can really take the game forward and I think that, more than anything, that is needed right now at an ICC level," he added.

ICC's elections are slated to be held in July this year and current chairperson Shashank Manohar has already clarified that he is not seeking a tenure extension.

Ganguly was exceptional in making India play its first day-night Test last year.

India had played its inaugural day-night Test against Bangladesh at the Eden Gardens last year.

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Agencies
May 22,2020

India's cricket board will not push for the Twenty20 World Cup in Australia to be postponed but would consider staging the Indian Premier League (IPL) in the October/November slot if it becomes available, a senior BCCI official has told Reuters.

This year's IPL, which is worth almost $530 million to the BCCI, has been indefinitely postponed because of the COVID-19 pandemic while the World Cup, which is scheduled to begin on Oct. 18, is also in jeopardy.

Reports in Australian media have suggested India's influential board may look to push for the World Cup to be postponed to open up a window for the IPL.

World Cup contingency plans are on the agenda at next week's International Cricket Council (ICC) board meeting but BCCI treasurer Arun Singh Dhumal said India would not be recommending it be pushed back.

"Why should the BCCI suggest postponing the Twenty20 World Cup?" Dhumal told Reuters by telephone.

"We'll discuss it in the meeting and whatever is appropriate, (the ICC) will take a call.

"If the Australia government announces that the tournament will happen and Cricket Australia is confident they can handle it, it will be their call. BCCI would not suggest anything."

While Australia has seen new infections of the novel coronavirus slow to a trickle and is gradually easing travel curbs and social distancing restrictions, hosting a 16-team World Cup would be a Herculean task for Cricket Australia.

Dhumal questioned whether the tournament should go ahead if it had to be played without spectators and said the Australian government would play a key role in any decision.

"It all depends on what the Australian government says on this - whether they'd allow so may teams to come and play the tournament," he added.

"Will it make sense to play games without spectators? Will it make sense for CA to stage such a tournament like that? It's their call."

Cricket Australia chief executive Kevin Roberts was guarded about the prospects of staging the tournament as scheduled on Friday.

"We don't have clarity on that one, yet. But as the situation continues to improve, you never know what might be possible," he said.

"It's ultimately a decision for the ICC."

The ICC has said it was unlikely to make a final call on the fate of the World Cup until August but some boards are in the process of making contingency plans in the event of a postponement.

While the BCCI recognised an open October-November window would suit the IPL, Dhumal said there was no point in making plans until there was some certainty about the World Cup.

"If we have the window available, and depending on what all can be organised, we'll decide accordingly," he added. "We can't presume that it's not happening and go on planning."

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