Euro 2012: May the best team win. Or not

June 21, 2012

sports-lead-euro


Paris, June 21: Euro 2012 has been nothing if not entertaining, with plenty of goals, thrills and spills and assorted controversies from racism to goals not being given that should have been -- with Greece adding the surprise factor.


With the quarter-final line-up now known, the football fan might feel entitled to ask a nagging question: "Will the best team win?"

If this season in general has been anything to go by the answer is likely to be: "Probably not."


International football can be a crabbier affair than its domestic equivalent -- witness the difference in pace between the frenetic English Premier League, even with its foreign stars, and an England team which can verge on the pedestrian.

Yet a parallel is emerging between the international games as witnessed by the European championships and the Champions League, widely seen as the pinnacle of what the game has to offer at any level.

For many observers, Barcelona rank in terms of pure talent as the outstanding club team in Europe, with Bayern Munich not too far behind. But it was Chelsea who denied both to land last season's Champions League against all the odds.

Barca may have had 80 percent possession and 42 attempts on goal to 11 for their rivals over two games, yet it was the Londoners who advanced to the final.


There, Bayern cruised home in statistical terms -- but lost on penalties.

At Euro 2012, there are several indications the "best" team doesn't always win.

England topped Group D after beating Ukraine, yet the hosts enjoyed 62.5 percent of second-half possession, as well as a "goal" that wasn't given, despite crossing the line.

France, on the other hand, boasted a 23-game unbeaten run before losing to a Sweden side who showed flashes of brilliance with a lethal Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

But it was England who cruised into the final eight to face Italy instead of Spain.


Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper was confused on Wednesday, asking: "England top of the pile, Spain dodged and Rooney scoring the winner. Who makes this stuff up?"


Group A was another case in point.

On the evidence of the first matches, Russia looked streets ahead of their rivals after swatting the Czech Republic 4-1, only to crash out to a Greek side who, as in their 2004 glory year, most pundits had discounted after they lost to... the Czechs.

The Netherlands came in as one of the sides with the most impressive qualifying records and the pedigree of former champions.

It came as a surprise, then, that the 1988 winners lost all three of their matches, lumping their non-achievement this time round with that of the Republic of Ireland.

Football is not an exact science but quantitative analysis should act as some kind of guide.


After all, have Germany and Brazil, as the "best" teams in history, not tended to re-establish the natural order of things by winning more often than anybody else?

British scientist John Maddox chose a landmark year to carry out a study for Nature magazine.


In 1966, the year England beat West Germany to win their only World Cup, Maddox wrote an article "We wuz robbed" (We were robbed) and established the chances of a draw at just 0.27 -- or statistically 27 in 100 matches.

He then mused on what that meant for the remaining matches.


"In other words, if two teams are equally matched, the chance that the result will be an active injustice to one of them will be 0.73."

One might object that the term "equally matched" is subjective and only relative -- but few fans would stop to reason as much if their team has just lost a close game.

Maddox went further in establishing that "a team which is slightly less skilled than its opponent can nevertheless expect a one in three chance of winning the deciding match" -- what one might today perhaps call the Chelsea factor.

He suggested redesigning certain parameters of the game to flatten the effect of such a perceived "injustice", including a series of matches for finals, as happens in the Major League Baseball World Series.

Failing that, Maddox suggested altering the game itself, "possibly by widening the goalposts or by abolishing goalkeepers".

And UEFA think goal-line technology is controversial.



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News Network
May 28,2020

May 28: Former India captain and Kings XI Punjab head coach Anil Kumble is hopeful of the IPL happening this year and is not averse to the idea of conducting the cash-rich event without spectators due to the COVID-19 threat.

It is not official yet but there is speculation that the BCCI wants to hold the IPL in the October window after the tournament was postponed indefinitely earlier this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Yes we are hopeful and optimistic that there is still a possibility (to hold IPL this year) if we can cram in the schedule," Kumble was quoted as saying by Star Sports show 'Cricket Connected'.

"If we are going to have a stadium without spectators, then probably have 3 or 4 venues; there's still a possibility, we are all optimistic," said the former spinner, who is also the chairman of ICC's Cricket Committee.

Former India batsman VVS Laxman said the stakeholders can stage the league in cities which have multiple stadia to reduce travelling by players.

"Absolutely (there is chance to hold IPL this year), and also make sure that all the stakeholders have a say," he said.

"...you should identify one venue, which probably has 3 or 4 grounds; if at all you find that kind of a venue because travel is again going to be quite challenging," said the former stylish batsman.

"You don't know who's going to be where at the airports, so that I'm sure the franchises and the BCCI will be looking into."

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News Network
May 11,2020

Karachi, May 11: Pakistan might play more Test matches during their tour of England if it goes ahead as scheduled in July after the West Indies pulled out of an assignment there in June owing to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Pakistan Cricket Board and the England and Wales Cricket Board officials are due to have a video conference on May 18 to discuss how they should proceed with the tour given the situation because of the pandemic.

"At present we have to play three Tests and three T20 internationals but the number of Tests could be increased and the tour could start a bit early in July," a PCB source said.

The source said that the ECB could offer to organise a four or five Test series against Pakistan if the West Indies tour didn’t go ahead.

Issues that are likely to be discussed in the May 18 meet are a quarantine period for Pakistani players when they arrive in England in July and limiting the venues for the matches and playing before empty stadiums.

PCB CEO Wasim Khan confirmed the video conference but said so far, the ECB has not spoken to them on increasing the number of matches on the tour which is scheduled between July and September.

"Things will be clear after the meeting but whatever decision we take we will consult our captains and head coaches before giving any confirmation," Khan said.

The PCB has so far kept mum on the chances of the series taking place in England because of the COVID-19 situation.

But with the British government due to announce measures to ease the lockdown in the country, it appears Pakistan could be touring on schedule.

Some former players have, however, asked the PCB to tread on the side of caution.

"If the West Indies have decided to postpone their series in June because of safety reasons and because of the situation then the PCB should also be very careful before taking up any offer from the ECB," a former captain said.

The West Indies Cricket Board said its players have to be convinced of their safety for it to commit to the assignment, which "is not possible in June."

"...we will continue our discussions with the ECB and other Internationals Boards on trying to find new dates," it said in a recent press release.

"We will only travel to England to play the series if our players can be assured that it is safe to do so," it added.

Pakistan is also scheduled to play an ODI series against Ireland while in UK but that series could be rescheduled and also be held in England.

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Agencies
May 17,2020

Berlin, May 17: Top-flight football in Germany kicked off again on the weekend, becoming the first major sports league in the world to resume play, as parts of Europe took more tentative steps towards normality after the devastation unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic.

With the worldwide death toll past 310,000 and the global economy reeling from the vast damage caused by lockdowns, the reopenings in some of the hardest-hit countries provided much-needed relief from the pandemic.

The French returned to the beach and Italy announced a resumption of European tourism with outbreaks in Europe slowing, but the rising number of fatalities in the United States and Brazil were a grim reminder of the scale of the crisis, with more than 4.6 million infections reported globally.

With governments trying to reopen their economies while avoiding the second wave of infections that could necessitate more lockdowns, Germany's Bundesliga resumed its season on Saturday with games played in vacant, echoing stadiums.

League heavyweights Borussia Dortmund hosted rivals Schalke at the all-but-empty Signal Iduna Park -- which would usually be packed with more than 80,000 raucous fans.

"It's sad that matches are played in empty stadiums, but it's better than nothing," said 45-year-old Borussia Dortmund fan Marco Perz, beer in hand, as he prepared to watch the game on TV.

Dortmund's Erling Braut Haaland became the first player to score a goal after the two-month shutdown and celebrated by dancing alone -- away from his applauding teammates -- in keeping with the strict hygiene guidelines which allowed the league to resume.

The only noise was the cheering and clapping of players and coaches.

League champions Bayern Munich will play Union Berlin in the capital on Sunday, with the resumption in Germany seen as a test case as other top sports competitions try to find ways to resume play without increasing health risks.

"The whole world will be looking at Germany, to see how we get it done," said Bayern boss Hansi Flick.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of Italy, however, said Saturday he needed more guarantees before the government can give the green light for the resumption of its top football league, which is struggling with logistical difficulties as clubs try to arrange training sessions and quarantine facilities.

With the Northern Hemisphere's summer approaching, authorities are moving to help tourism industries salvage something from the wreckage.

Italy, for a long stretch the world's worst-hit country, announced that European Union tourists would be allowed to visit from June 3 and a 14-day mandatory quarantine would be scrapped.

"We're facing a calculated risk in the knowledge that the contagion curve may rise again," Conte said during a televised address.

"We have to accept it otherwise we will never be able to start up again."

In France, the first weekend after the strictest measures were lifted saw many ventures out into the spring sunshine -- and hit the beach.

In the Riviera city of Nice, keen swimmers jumped into the surf at daybreak.

"We were impatient because we swim here all year round," said retiree Gilles, who declined to give his full name.

With the threat of a second wave of infections on their minds, authorities in many countries have asked people not to throng public spaces like beaches as they are made accessible again.

Officials in parts of England on Saturday warned people to stay away from newly reopened beauty spots and avoid overcrowding.

Germany also saw the latest in a growing wave of anti-lockdown protests in many parts of the world, with rallies in major cities bringing together conspiracy theorists, anti-vaccine activists and other extremists.

There were similar protests in France, Switzerland and Poland.

Since emerging in China late last year, the coronavirus has whipped up a catastrophic economic storm, which has left tens of millions unemployed in the United States and many are wondering when a recovery will be possible.

With more than 88,000 deaths and 1.47 million confirmed coronavirus cases, the United States is the worst-hit country on the planet, and the administration of President Donald Trump has faced intense criticism of the way it has handled the crisis.

Former president Barack Obama took a swipe at the response to the pandemic, telling graduates at a virtual commencement ceremony that many leaders today "aren't even pretending to be in charge" -- a remark widely regarded as a rare rebuke of his successor.

Trump is keen to reopen the US economy -- the world's largest -- despite warnings from experts that infections could flare up again if social distancing measures are eased too quickly.

Forty-eight of the 50 US states have now eased lockdown rules to some extent.

Much like Trump and his political allies, Brazil's far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is also keen to end lockdowns, which he claims have unnecessarily damaged the South American nation's economy over a disease he has dismissed as "a little flu".

But the virus has continued its deadly march in Brazil, where the death toll passed 15,000 on Saturday and it became the country with the fourth-largest coronavirus caseload with 230,000 infections.

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