Pune, November 14: Indian selectors' decision to not pick a single specialist spinner for England's warmup game against India 'A' indicates that it's difficult to expect Zaheer Khan and Umesh Yadav/Ishant Sharma to run through the English batting.
The first Test begins in Ahmedabad from Thursday and the clues are already out. If the wickets are pacy and have some grass, India could well open a huge window of opportunity for England.
Though England beat India 4-0 at home, they lost at home to South Africa earlier this year. They weren't exactly formidable in their own conditions.
England are one of the only three teams to have lost a Test match against India despite not losing 20 wickets in the match (others being Zimbabwe in Delhi 2000-01 and West Indies at Port-of-Spain 1975-76).
Yes, the Chennai chase was India's last Test win over England (2008-09 ) when Sachin Tendulkar and Yuvraj Singh were unbeaten (MOM Sehwag for 83 off 68 chasing 387). KP had 'declared' England's innings at 311/9 in the first Test of the series.
If we look at both teams' comparative compositions, key personnel are missing.
If England are missing Strauss, Collingwood, Flintoff and Harmison, India are without Dravid, Laxman and Mishra. Harbhajan Singh, too, could miss out if Dhoni doesn't play with three spinners.
India's replacement for these spots are stronger than England's re-placements, especially in Indian conditions. For, Ashwin, Ojha, Pujara and Kohli can undoubtedly be dubbed as assets at this point.
England have Trott, Bairstow and Finn. They also have Bresnan, Morgan, Broad, Onions and Compton to choose from. Despite having warriors VVS and Dravid, India were all out under 200 runs five times in home Tests since January 2003 (see box). India won't like a repeat of that. Twelve of India's 19 Test wins at home between January 2003 and VVS-Dravid's retirement came with significant contributions from VVS and Dravid. Only seven home wins in that phase came without the duo doing much.
India would prefer to play on wickets which don't expose their inexperienced middle-order. They also wouldn't want pitches where the pacers have too much bowling to do.
At the moment, India's pace bowling and batting is not watertight under challenging situations. India don't look eager for a skirmish. They will be far more comfortable to grind out the opposition with the possibility of a draw through a batathon.
England can still be optimistic of restricting Indian totals, especially in the first innings.
In the last 20 Tests, India have batted for more than four sessions (120 overs) only four times in either of their first innings (batting first or second).
India have always done well in India when the opposition have played their spinners for the first time on this soil. In that sense, Ashwin and Ojha will always be better bets than Harbhajan.
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