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New Delhi, May 14: India may witness the death of additional 1.2-6 lakh children over the next one year from preventable causes as a consequence to the disruption in regular health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF has warned.

The warning comes from a new study that brackets India with nine other nations from Asia and Africa that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths as a consequence to the pandemic.

These potential child deaths will be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months in the 118 countries included in the study.

The estimate is based on an analysis by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health published in the Lancet.  

This means the global mortality rate of children dying before their fifth birthday, one of the key progress indicators in all of the global development, could potentially increase for the first time since 1960 when the data was first collected.

There were 1.04 million under-5 deaths in India in 2017, of which nearly 50% (0.57 million) were neonatal deaths. The highest number of under-5 deaths was in Uttar Pradesh (312,800 which included 165,800 neonatal deaths) and Bihar (141,500 which included 75,300 neonatal deaths).

The researchers looked at three scenarios, factoring in parameters like reduction in workforce, supplies and access to healthcare for services like family planning, antenatal care, childbirth care, postnatal care, vaccination and preventive care for early childhood. The effects are modelled for a period of three months, six months and 12 months.  

In scenario-1 marked by 10-18% reduction of coverage of all the services, the number of additional children deaths could be in the range of 30,000 plus over three months, more than 60,000 over six months and above 120,000 over the next 12 months.

Coronavirus India update: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths on May 13

The numbers sharply rose to nearly 55,000; 109,000 and 219,000 respectively for scenario-2, which was associated with an 18-28% drop in all the regular services.

But in the worst-case scenario in which 40-50% of the services are not available, the number of additional deaths ballooned to 1.5 lakhs in the three months in the short-range to nearly six lakhs over a year.

The ten countries that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths are Bangladesh, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and Tanzania.

In countries with already weak health systems, COVID-19 is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources.

Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and due to the fear of infection among the communities. Such disruptions could result in potentially devastating increases in maternal and child deaths, the UN agency warned.

Kochi, Apr 14: Reacting to the extension of the nationwide lockdown till May 3, Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Issac on Tuesday maintained that his state needs money more than appreciation for the work it has done to mitigate the impact of the lockdown and contain coronavirus spread.

"The only additional money that Kerala received is mere Rs 230 crore and that too for Covid-19 work. The funds we received to tide over revenue deficit is different -- we would have got it anyways," said Issac, who has been demanding more liberal financial assistance from the Centre.

"The need of the hour now is for the Centre to immediately hold a videoconference meeting with all state Finance Ministers. The Centre should borrow more money from the RBI and give it to the states. Otherise, things will be very bad, as the economy, especially rural economy, is tumbling. It needs to be checked," said the Kerala Minister.

Devasom and Tourism Minister Kadakampally Surendran said the state Cabinet will meet on Wednesday to decide how to go about things till May 3.

"The coronavirus figures reveal that Kerala has done quite well. The Cabinet will decide on how we move forward after looking into the guidelines of the Centre," said Surendran.

Local Self Government Minister A.C. Moideen said that local farm produce has to reach markets as rural economy revolves around this. The Cabinet will look into this issue as well.

Health Minister K.K. Shailaja stressed the need for maintaining social distancing and asked all to see that the lockdown guidelines were strictly followed.

"Our advantage is that we have been able to contain the spread, but we still have a long way to go. Singapore is the best example -- after a slowdown in positive cases, it picked up there. So, let us all continue to maintain strict vigil and wait till Wednesday's Cabinet meet," said Shailaja.

New Delhi, May 3: Union Health and Family Welfare Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan on Sunday said that India's COVID-19 mortality rate of 3.2 per cent is the lowest in the world and over 10,000 coronavirus patients have been discharged from hospitals after recovering from the disease so far.

"Today more than 10,000 COVID-19 patients have been discharged. Those still admitted at hospitals are on the road to recovery. If in last 14 days doubling rate was 10.5 days, then today it is around 12 days," the Minister told ANI after visiting Lady Hardinge Hospital.

"Our mortality rate of 3.2 per cent is the lowest in the world," he said.

With 2,644 more COVID-19 cases and 83 deaths in the last 24 hours, the number of people infected from coronavirus in the country has reached 39,980 including 1,301 deaths, said the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Sunday.

Currently, there are 28,046 active cases while 10,633 COVID-19 positive patients have been cured/discharged.