Washington, Feb 1: The Indian economy experienced some abrupt slowdown in 2019 due to turbulence in non-banking financial institutions and major reform measures such as GST and demonetisation, but it is not in a recession, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has said.
"The Indian economy indeed has experienced an abrupt slowdown in 2019. We had to revise our growth projections, downwards to four percent for last year. We are expecting 5.8 per cent (growth rate) in 2020 and then an upward trajectory to 6.5 percent in 2021," Georgieva told a group of foreign journalists here on Friday.
"It appears that the main reason for this slowdown was the non-banking financial institutions experiencing a turbulence," she said on the eve of Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presenting the annual budget in Parliament on Saturday.
She said India had undertaken some important reforms that over the longer term would be beneficial for the country, but they do have some short-term impact.
"For example, coming with the unified tax system, and the demonetisation that took place. These are steps that over time are beneficial, but of course they might, might be somewhat disruptive over short term," Georgieva said in response to a question.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director said that there is not a lot of fiscal space in India. “But we also recognise that the policies of the government on that side, on the fiscal side have been prudent. We will see how the reading of the budget, the submission of the budget goes, tomorrow,” she said.
In the medium-term, she said, the IMF remains optimistic about India. “This is why we see that upswing potential for the growth in the country,” she said.
Georgieva said that the current economic slowdown cannot be described as a recession. "No.... You're far from that. But it is a significant slowdown, not the recession," she said.
The IMF managing Director noted that the consumption in India also slowed down and that contributed to the overall slowdown in the economy. The IMF would be keen to see what India does to get relatively sound macroeconomic fundamentals to pay off in terms of better growth trajectory, she said ahead of the budget.
One thing that is important for India is that budgetary revenue have been below target. "The country knows that. The finance minister knows it. They need to increase budgetary revenue collection so they can improve their fiscal position. I said it's tight on the spending side, but I also want to stress that there is room to improve collection on the revenue side," she said.
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An Indian Haj subsidy that did not exist!
Thank you Prime Minister Modi for ending Haj subsidy that never existed.
I completely welcome this move making the announcement, minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said: “We believe in empowerment without appeasement.”Naqvi did not elaborate what he meant by “appeasement” but for decades, Haj subsidy remained a whip in the hands of right-wing parties to attack political rivals. Bharatiya Janata Party to embarrass rivals by accusing them of “appeasing” Muslims by subsiding expenses involved in the pilgrimage to Makkah and Madina. Angered by this attack, several Muslims have been demanding an end to the subsidy.
However, it is important to understand what this subsidy was and whether Muslims actually benefitted from it. In 2016-17, the government budgeted Rs 4.5 billion subsidy for around 100,000 Muslims who performed Haj last year. Each pilgrim paid around Rs 220,000 (amount varies each year) for airfare; stay in Makkah and Madina and for miscellaneous expenses. This money is paid to government-managed Haj committees which then transfers this money to other agencies. In other words, each Muslim pays for his/her own Haj expenses.
A significant chunk of money paid by Muslims goes to India’s government-owned national carrier Air India which enjoys a virtual monopoly on Haj circuit. The airline picks up passengers from around a dozen cities and flies them to Jeddah. The Air India inflates India-Jeddah tickets during the Haj season. This so-called government subsidy is used to pay for tickets that are always higher than the prevailing airfare charged by other airlines. A breakdown would show that an Air India ticket to Jeddah would cost more than a trip to Los Angeles from India. Essentially, the government takes money from one pocket and puts it back in another. Muslim have always demanded global tenders for Haj flights and for providing accommodation in Makkah and Madina..
However, while Naqvi sought to take a high moral ground by claiming that his party appeases no section of the society, his own government spends billions of rupees on organizing Hindu pilgrimages every year
Naqvi saab, this is what you learnt in Madrasa? U r Back-Stabbing Muslims. There is no 1% quality of muslim in you. After joining BJP you have lost it. First learn humanity. Almighty will give answers for all problems you have created for others.
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