New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.
According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.
"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.
The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.
Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.
Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.
Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.
He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.
The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.
The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.
India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31.
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An Indian Haj subsidy that did not exist!
Thank you Prime Minister Modi for ending Haj subsidy that never existed.
I completely welcome this move making the announcement, minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said: “We believe in empowerment without appeasement.”Naqvi did not elaborate what he meant by “appeasement” but for decades, Haj subsidy remained a whip in the hands of right-wing parties to attack political rivals. Bharatiya Janata Party to embarrass rivals by accusing them of “appeasing” Muslims by subsiding expenses involved in the pilgrimage to Makkah and Madina. Angered by this attack, several Muslims have been demanding an end to the subsidy.
However, it is important to understand what this subsidy was and whether Muslims actually benefitted from it. In 2016-17, the government budgeted Rs 4.5 billion subsidy for around 100,000 Muslims who performed Haj last year. Each pilgrim paid around Rs 220,000 (amount varies each year) for airfare; stay in Makkah and Madina and for miscellaneous expenses. This money is paid to government-managed Haj committees which then transfers this money to other agencies. In other words, each Muslim pays for his/her own Haj expenses.
A significant chunk of money paid by Muslims goes to India’s government-owned national carrier Air India which enjoys a virtual monopoly on Haj circuit. The airline picks up passengers from around a dozen cities and flies them to Jeddah. The Air India inflates India-Jeddah tickets during the Haj season. This so-called government subsidy is used to pay for tickets that are always higher than the prevailing airfare charged by other airlines. A breakdown would show that an Air India ticket to Jeddah would cost more than a trip to Los Angeles from India. Essentially, the government takes money from one pocket and puts it back in another. Muslim have always demanded global tenders for Haj flights and for providing accommodation in Makkah and Madina..
However, while Naqvi sought to take a high moral ground by claiming that his party appeases no section of the society, his own government spends billions of rupees on organizing Hindu pilgrimages every year
Naqvi saab, this is what you learnt in Madrasa? U r Back-Stabbing Muslims. There is no 1% quality of muslim in you. After joining BJP you have lost it. First learn humanity. Almighty will give answers for all problems you have created for others.
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