New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.
The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.
The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.
Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.
In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.
Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.
The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.
Capital Investment Drop
In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.
However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.
“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.
Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.
“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.
Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.
A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.
Comments
Haj subsidy was used to fleece the Muslim Pilgrims. I am sure the Haj tickets are much cheaper.
dear Hassan, dont bother yourself with airfare calcuations. This Naqwi is a stupid parallysed minister of BJP-RSS group. Though he has tongue but he cant speak his own, he has to be feeded by his superiors and spit the same. who the hell he to decide the number of piligrims to perform Hajj, is KSA is fathers property? he is thinking we Indian Muslims are stupid? i doubt he is a muslim (he is not). for your info, dont calculate airfare and expenses which is bound to occur during this holy deed. Islam has clearly emphasized "Hajj shall be performed for healthy and wealthy slaves" lets Ask Allah to all of us blesssed to reach that holy place and paerform our Hajj in sha Allah. Government subsidy is my foot....
He think he and his party fool people in each and every occations. What ever the quota saudi government provides, that much people will go to Hajj every year depend upon the Quota.
Record number of pilgrims ...without subsidy is a slap on you and Modi government.....
Mr mininster, We dont want Subsidy But please compare the air fare now and during HAj season. If you control on that then people will realise that you had did something positive. Airfare regular price from mumbai to jeddah is around Rs 25000/- But during Ramadan and Hajj seoson its crosses more then Rs 75000/- Differrence is more then what government was giving Susidy. So dont fool the nation. Keep control on Air fare. Jai hind
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