Note ban just a short-term pain; more 'reforms' ahead: Modi

The World Bank says that a lack of credit and drop in private consumption have led to a gloomy growth outlook for India with a steep cut in growth rate for the current fiscal year and only a modest gain projected for the next year.

India's growth rate is forecast to be only 5 per cent for the current fiscal year, weighed down by a growth of only 4.5 per cent in the July-September quarter, according to the 2020 Global Economic Prospects report released on Wednesday.

"In India, [economic] activity was constrained by insufficient credit availability, as well as by subdued private consumption," the Bank said.

The growth rate is forecast by the Bank to pick up to 5.8 per cent in the next fiscal year and to 6.1 per cent in 2021-22.

India's growth rate was 6.8 per cent in 2018-19.

The 5 per cent growth rate projection for the current financial year is a sharp cut of 2.5 per cent from the 7.5 per cent forecast made by the Bank in January last year, toppling it from the rank of the world's fastest growing economy.

India's performance follows a global trend of lowered growth weighed down by developed economies.

The report estimated world economic growth rate to be only 2.4 per cent last year and forecast it to edge up 0.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the current year.

Even with the lower growth rate of 5 per cent in the current fiscal year and 5.8 per cent forecast for the next, India holds the second rank among large economies, behind only China with an estimated growth rate of 6.1 per cent for 2019 and 5.9 per cent this year.

The report blamed "weak confidence, liquidity issues in the financial sector" and "weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies" for India's slowdown.

The Bank predicated India's recovery to 5.8 per cent in the coming financial year for India but "on the monetary policy stance remaining accommodative" and the assumption that "the stimulative fiscal and structural measures already taken will begin to pay off."

It also warned that sharper-than-expected slowdown in major external markets such as United States and Europe, would affect South Asia through trade, financial, and confidence channels, especially for countries with strong trade links to these economies."

The Bank said that the growth of advanced economies was 1.6 per cent last year and "is anticipated to slip to 1.4 per cent in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing."

In contrast the growth of emerging market and developing countries is expected to accelerate from 3.5 per cent last year to 4.1 per cent this year, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is estimated to have the highest growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year, although down from 8.1 per cent last fiscal year.

But its higher regional growth rates are coming off a lower base with a per capital gross domestic product of $1,698 compared to $2,010 for India.

Bangladesh is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the next financial year.

Pakistan's growth rate is estimated at only 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and is projected to rise to 3 per cent in the next, according to the Bank.

The Bank blamed monetary tightening in Pakistan for a sharp deceleration in fixed investment and a considerable softening in private consumption for the fall in growth rate from 3.3 per cent in the 2018-19 fiscal year.

Sri Lanka's growth rate was estimated to be 2.7 per cent last year and forecast to grow to 3.3 per cent this year.

Nepal grew by an estimated 6.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and will rise to 6.5 per cent in the next.

New Delhi, Jun 10: Petrol price on Wednesday was hiked by 40 paise per litre and diesel by 45 paise, the fourth straight daily increase in rates after oil PSUs ended an 82-day hiatus in rate revision. Petrol price in Delhi was hiked to Rs 73.40 per litre from Rs 73, while diesel rates were increased to Rs 71.62 a litre from Rs 71.17, according to a price notification of state oil marketing companies.

Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending on the incidence of local sales tax or VAT.

This is the fourth daily increase in rates in a row since oil companies on Sunday restarted revising prices in line with costs, after ending an 82-day hiatus.

In four hikes, petrol price has gone up by Rs 2.14 per litre and diesel by Rs 2.23.

Latest petrol, diesel prices in top cities:

New Delhi: Petrol ₹73.40. Diesel ₹71.62

Gurgaon: Petrol ₹72.86. Diesel ₹64.90

Mumbai: Petrol ₹80.40. Diesel ₹70.35

Chennai: Petrol ₹77.43. Diesel ₹70.13

Hyderabad: Petrol ₹76.20. Diesel ₹70b

Bengaluru: Petrol ₹75.77. Diesel ₹68.09

The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has prepared a draft for guidelines for home quarantine, as well as for the use of masks by public, in view of coronavirus.

What to do in Home Quarantine?

The government says, for those taking refuge to home quarantine should stay in a well-ventilated single-room preferably with an attached or separate toilet. It adds that if another family member needs to stay in the same room, it's advisable to maintain a distance of at least 1 metre between the two.

The government advised, coronavirus patients to stay away from elderly people, pregnant women, children and persons with co-morbidities within the household as their immune system may be low. The health minister also suggested to restrict the patient's movement within the house. "Under no circumstances attend any social/religious gathering e.g. wedding, condolences, etc, said the guideline.

It also instructed the corona virus infected person to avoid sharing household items like dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, bedding, or other items with others at home. The guideline also demanded that even though home quarantine, the patient should wear a surgical mask at all times. "The mask should be changed every 6-8 hours and disposed off. Disposable masks are never to be reused, it added.

"Masks used by patients/ caregivers/ close contacts during home care should be disinfected using ordinary bleach solution (5 per cent) or sodium hypochlorite solution (1%) and then disposed of either by burning or deep burial," instructs the government.

Even for family members of a patient, the health ministry clearly instructs to use disposable gloves when cleaning the surfaces or handling soiled linen. No visitors, under any circumstances will be allowed, said the guideline.

"In case the person being quarantined becomes symptomatic, all his close contacts will be home quarantined (for 14 days) and followed up for an additional 14 days or till the report of such case turns out negative on lab testing," states the draft.

How to wear & dump masks?

There is a specific and elaborate do's and don'ts also released by the ministry. For those unsure in which mask to choose, it says, "Medical masks of different sizes and shapes are available in the market. The common ones are flat pleated masks of woven fabric which covers the nose and mouth and affixed behind the head with straps/ elastic fasteners. There are also conical or duck bill shaped masks with valves (or without valves) that fit in the contour of face over the nose and mouth, but are costlier."

However, the ministry warns, medical masks should not be used by healthy persons who are not having any symptoms "because it creates a false sense of security". Instead, it suggests to refrain from touching face, mouth, nose and eyes as well as washing hands regularly with soap for 20 seconds each time.

However, when a person develops a cough or fever, the suspected patient needs to switch to medical masks. "Use of medical three layer masks when ill, will prevent your infection from spreading to others. However you also need to wash your hands frequently to avoid spreading infection to others," read the guideline.

Even if one is not tested positive but showing symptoms, they are advised to wear masks while visiting a healthcare facility. "Close family contacts of such suspect/confirmed cases undergoing home care should also use Triple layer medical mask," it warns.

The ministry has also given point by point guideline on how to use a mask like to make sure that they are facing down while unfolding or for that matter to ensure there are no gaps on either side of the mask.

It even warns, "Fit flexible nose piece (a metallic strip that can easily be located) over nose-bridge" to ensure no one else are infected. The government also warns against simple dumping of the masks once used. Instead one should disinfect "using ordinary bleach solution (5 per cent) or sodium hypochlorite solution (1 per cent) and then disposed of either by burning or deep burial," says the Health Ministry.

COVID-19 emerged in early December 2019 in China's Wuhan province and has now spread to over 100 countries. As on March 9, 2020, India has reported 42 cases mostly among those who had travelled from affected countries.

However the government says, "It causes a minor illness in majority of patients with symptoms of fever and or cough. A small proportion of such persons may progress to severe disease with difficulty in breathing."