Now, climate-based system could predict dengue spread in India

Agencies
September 3, 2017

London, Sept 3: Scientists have developed a system that can predict the spread of dengue in different parts of India, based on climatic factors, an advance that may help take preventive measures against the deadly infection.

Researchers from the University of Liverpool in the UK identified the climatic risks for dengue disease outbreaks in different climatic zones in the country through the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Kerala. The team, in collaboration with researchers from Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (IICT) in Hyderabad and National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research

(NIPER) in Guwahati, focused on changes in a factor called 'extrinsic incubation period (EIP)' of the dengue virus by taking into account daily and monthly mean temperatures in these areas.

EIP is the time taken for incubation of the virus in the mosquito. During this period, after the mosquito draws a virus-rich-blood meal, the virus escapes the gut, passes through the mosquito's body and reaches it salivary glands. Once this happens, the mosquito is infectious and capable of transmitting the virus to a human host. It has been found that climatic conditions play an important role in EIP.

Lower temperatures (17-18 degrees Celsius) result in longer EIPs thereby leading to decreased virus transmission. With increasing temperatures, feeding increases because of enhanced metabolism of the mosquito, leading to shorter EIPs. Even a five-day decrease in the incubation period can hike transmission rate by three times, and with an increase in temperature from 17 to 30 degrees Celsius, dengue transmission increases fourfold.

However, a further increase in temperature beyond 35 degrees Celsius is detrimental to the mosquito survival. Researchers observed that except for Gujarat which comprises of arid regions, there was a strong correlation between rainfall and dengue disease burden.

They propose an increase in breeding grounds for mosquitoes as a major reason for this finding. The study found that Kerala being warm (temperature range 23.5-30 degrees Celsius) and wet and with short EIPs (9-14 days) experiences the highest number of dengue cases.

It has been found that EIP is the shortest during the monsoon season in most states and therefore there is an enhanced risk of dengue during this time. It is important to take into account the dynamic EIP estimates in different regions in assessing disease burden. "This climate-based dengue forecasting model could help health authorities to assess the disease intensity in a geographic region, based on that they can plan disease control operations well in advance and optimise the use of resources meticulously," said Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni of IICT, who led the study.

Changes in temperature affecting the extrinsic incubation period of the virus, future changes in the climate might have a substantial effect on dengue and other vector-borne disease burden in India.

"Though such methods are in vogue for disease control operations, we are still in the initial stages of implementation of such strategic control methods," Rao said. "Factors such as population density and migration also need to be included for future risk assessment studies," he said.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
May 11,2020

Panaji, May 11: Amid the COVID-19 outbreak, most of the people are more concerned about the health of their near and dear ones than their own well-being, says a study conducted by a leading business school in Goa.

People are now more conscious about any bodily changes, and even mild cold, cough and sneezing, it says.

The study, on public's reaction towards COVID-19 outbreak by gauging their psychological response in terms of anxiety and their coping behaviour, was conducted by the Goa Institute of Management's Dr Divya Singhal and Prof Padhmanabhan Vijayaraghavan.

It took into account inputs from 231 respondents residing in various parts of the country.

"Nearly 82.25 per cent of the respondents were more worried about the health of their loved ones than their own well-being," Singhal said.

"Majority of the respondents have become conscious of any bodily changes, sensations, a mild cold, cough, sneezing and experience concern, and attribute those changes to the symptoms of COVID-19," she said.

Besides, more than 50 per cent of the respondents said their social media usage has gone up as well as their time spent on watching movies and shows through online medium, the official said.

The respondents agreed that their technology usage to connect with friends and relatives has gone up, she said.

The study also indicated that a large group of respondents found it "depressing" to read forwarded messages on the deadly disease.

"An overwhelming majority of the respondentsagreed that they discourage unverified forwarded messages about COVID-19 on social media," says the study.

It also found that 41 per centof the respondents were not doing any physical activity, like yoga, during the lockown period, while another 19 per cent were not sure about engaging themselves in physical activities.

Besides, 57 per cent of the respondents were not engaged in any mind-calming practices like meditation, and 18 per cent were not sure about taking up meditative practices, the study said.

The respondents included 145 men and 86 women, aged 18 and above, with nearly 60 per cent of them residing in non- metro cities and rest from metros.

About 47.62 per cent of the respondents were employed in private or government sectors, and the remaining included students, retired persons and homemakers.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
Agencies
June 23,2020

The record levels of new daily COVID-19 cases are due to the fact that the pandemic is peaking in a number of big countries at the same time and reflect a change in the virus' global activity, the World Health Organisation said.

At a media briefing on Monday, WHO's emergencies chief Dr Michael Ryan said that the numbers are increasing because the epidemic is developing in a number of populous countries at the same time.

Some countries have attributed their increased caseload to more testing, including India and the US But Ryan dismissed that explanation.

We do not believe this is a testing phenomenon, he said, noting that numerous countries have also noted marked increases in hospital admissions and deaths neither of which cannot be explained by increased testing.

There definitely is a shift in that the virus is now very well established, Ryan said. The epidemic is now peaking or moving towards a peak in a number of large countries.

He added the situation was definitely accelerating in a number of countries, including the US and others in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
Agencies
April 14,2020

There is no evidence that the Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine, which is primarily used against tuberculosis, protects people against infection with the novel coronavirus, the World Health Organization (WHO) said.

The WHO therefore didn't recommend BCG vaccination for the prevention of COVID-19 in the absence of evidence, according to its daily situation report on Monday, Xinhua news agency reported.

"There is experimental evidence from both animal and human studies that the BCG vaccine has non-specific effects on the immune system. These effects have not been well characterized and their clinical relevance remains unknown," WHO stated.

Two clinical trials addressing the question are underway, and WHO will evaluate the evidence when it is available, it noted.

BCG vaccination prevents severe forms of tuberculosis in children and diversion of local supplies may result in an increase of disease and deaths from the tuberculosis, it warned.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.