Number of 'crorepatis' has risen by 60% in last four years: CBDT

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

New Delhi, Feb 23: Hailing the role of first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in shaping India a modern nation state, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday hit out at the Narendra Modi-led Central government, saying "nationalism" and the slogan of 'Bharat Mata Ki Jai' are being misused to construct a militant and purely emotional idea of India.

Speaking at the launch of a book on Jawaharlal Nehru's works and speeches, Singh said: "I am extremely happy that this book makes an effort to revisit Pandit Nehru. He had led this country in its volatile, formative days when we adopted democratic way of life, accommodating divergent social and political views."

The former Prime Minister said that Nehru, who was very proud of Indian heritage, "assimilated it", and harmonised them into the needs of a "new modern" India.

"A great visionary, Nehruji laid the foundation for shaping India as a modern nation state," he said.

Highlighting the works of the first Prime Minister, Singh said: "If India is recognized in the comity of nations as a vibrant democracy and, if it is considered as one of the important world powers, it was Nehru, who should be recognised as its main architect."

He said Nehru was not only a statesman of high international standing, but a great historian and literary figure too.

"With an inimitable style, and a multi-linguist, Nehru laid the foundation of the universities, academies and cultural institutions of Modern India. But for Nehru's leadership, Independent India would not have become what it is today," he said.

Taking an apparent dig at the BJP government, he said: "But unfortunately, a section of people who either do not have the patience to read history or would like to be deliberately guided by their prejudices, try their best to picture Nehru in a false light.

"But I am sure, history has a capacity to reject fake and false insinuations and put everything in proper perspective," he said.

He said the book "Who is Bharat Mata" is such an attempt to set the narrative in the right direction.

Singh said that selecting appropriate pieces from Nehruji's works, the book justifies its title "Who is Bharat Mata?"

"As this book contains a timely collection of writings by and on Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru- the leader, who shaped India and the Icon whose legacy is the subject of intense and often angry reaction today.

The book also comprises reminiscences and assessments of Nehru by some of his contemporaries and near contemporaries-among them, including Mahatma Gandhi, Bhagat Singh, Sardar Patel, Maulana Azad, Aruna Asaf Ali, Sheikh Abdullah, Ramdhari Singh Dinkar, Ali Sardar Jafri, Baldev Singh, Martin Luther King Jr, Richard Attenborough, Lee Kuan Yew and Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

"It is a book of particular relevance at a time when nationalism and the slogan of ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai' are being misused to construct a militant and purely emotional idea of India that excludes millions of residents and citizens," Singh said attacking the BJP government.

The two time Prime Minister further said that in the pages of the carefully complied anthology-which also carries illuminating introductions by the authors Nehru emerges as a "remarkable man of ideas and action", who had an instinctive understanding of India's civilisational spirit and as a visionary with clear commitment to the promotion of scientific temper, who despite the compulsions of politics, remained a true democrat.

"His legacy continues to be of immense significance-perhaps more today than at any other time in our history," he said.

He also warned that "Nehru makes a very significant and time relevant remark on the dangers of leaderships falling into a trap and getting removed far away from the common people whom they are supposed to serve".

"In an atmosphere, when emotions are deliberately get provoked and the gullible are misled by false propaganda, misusing communication technology, this book makes a refreshing break through," Singh added.