Oil gains on Saudi supply disruption, Mideast tensions

Jerusalem, May 17: The Chinese ambassador to Israel was found dead in his home north of Tel Aviv on Sunday, Israel's Foreign Ministry said.

No cause of death was given and Israeli police said it was investigating.

Du Wei, 58, was appointed envoy in February in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. He previously served as China's envoy to Ukraine.

He is survived by a wife and son, both of whom were not in Israel.

Israel enjoys good relations with China.

The ambassador's death comes just two days after he condemned comments by visiting U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who denounced Chinese investments in Israel and accused China of hiding information about the coronavirus outbreak.

Dubai: There aren’t that many job vacancies right now – but be prepared for a 15-20 per cent cut in salary expectations even for those positions that are still open. Businesses in the UAE are definitely not in a generous mood when it comes to hiring, with salary cuts now part of the new normal.

And they are definitely not willing to take on new hires without extracting some cost benefit from them. “We have seen major [salary] cuts across the board in hospitality, real estate, professional services and in retail,” said Vijay Gandhi, regional head at Korn Ferry Digital, the recruitment consultancy.

“And once the headcount correction is complete in [the local] financial services and energy sector, we may see more cuts in rewards and benefits in these categories as well.”

The salary cuts are slowly extending their way into the healthcare sector as well – just about every non-COVID-19 facing medical category is coming across cuts in the number of working hours and, by extension, their take home packages.

By end of June, more businesses and sectors in the UAE will have a better understanding of their short-term revenue prospects. By then, they will also have a better reading on what their staff strength should be – and whether there should be more trimming of the workforce. Or whether they should consider a few hires as well.

A long summer
So, realistically, it could be September before such decisions need to be taken. The coming weeks will then prove to be laden with anxiety for those who are expecting to land a job option after being laid off at their current employers.

There are multiple instances of recruitment decisions having been made in February/March, and then the companies rescinding those offers to the chosen candidates citing the business uncertainty.

“The decision to hire is taking longer – so job creation is now 4-6 weeks from interview and selection compared to 4-6 days in the past,” said Gandhi.

The lucky ones
Recently, free zones and other entities had made it easier for personnel on the visa of one entity being able to smoothly transfer to another if they are likely to be made redundant. “We are seeing more flexibility being offered by the authorities given the circumstances, and the visa transfer process is happening,” said Gandhi.

“But in the vast majority of cases, businesses are going to wait and watch before normal hiring activity starts. Organizations will look to hire from September.”

A few hires are still happening
Even in the business turmoil set off by COVID-19, a few categories are still offering jobs. At the entry level, logistics services personnel and drivers with experience remain in demand.

Not just “routine jobs, there have been confirmations in more technical roles such as procurement and operations in healthcare and e-commerce,” said Gandhi. “Employers should keep an eye for good talent and have the talent acquisition team actively looking for good profiles.

“As such, organizations are not only looking at “right sizing” in numbers but also “future proofing” on what kind of skilled talent will help them in the post-COVID-19 world.”

But for the candidates, the present will be about waiting around for the call to come.

Riyadh, Jul 1: Saudis braced Wednesday for a tripling in value added tax, another unpopular austerity measure after the twin shocks of coronavirus and an oil price slump triggered the kingdom's worst economic decline in decades.

Retailers in the country reported a sharp uptick in sales this week of everything from gold and electronics to cars and building materials, as shoppers sought to stock up before VAT is raised to 15 percent.

The hike could stir public resentment as it weighs on household incomes, pushing up inflation and depressing consumer spending as the kingdom emerges from a three-month coronavirus lockdown.

"Cuts, cuts, cuts everywhere," a Saudi teacher in Riyadh told AFP, bemoaning vanishing subsidies as salaries remain stagnant.

"Air conditioner, television, electronic items," he said, rattling off a list of items he bought last week ahead of the VAT hike.

"I can't afford these things from Wednesday."

With its vast oil wealth funding the Arab world's biggest economy, the kingdom had for decades been able to fund massive spending with no taxes at all.

It only introduced VAT in 2018, as part of a push to reduce its dependence on crude revenues.

Then, seeking to shore up state finances battered by sliding oil prices and the coronavirus crisis, it announced in May that it would triple VAT and halt a cost-of-living monthly allowance to citizens.

The austerity push underscores how Saudi Arabia's once-lavish spending is becoming a thing of the past, with the erosion of the welfare system leaving a mostly young population to cope with reduced incomes and a lifestyle downgrade.

That could pile strain on a decades-old social contract whereby citizens were given generous subsidies and handouts in exchange for loyalty to the absolute monarchy.

The rising cost of living may prompt many to ask why state funds are being lavished on multi-billion-dollar projects and overseas assets, including the proposed purchase of English football club Newcastle United.

Shopping malls in the kingdom have drawn large crowds in recent days as retailers offered "pre-VAT sales" and discounts before the hike kicks in.

A gold shop in Riyadh told AFP it saw a 70 percent jump in sales in recent weeks, while a car dealership saw them tick up by 15 percent.

Once the new rate is in place, businesses are predicting depressed sales of everything from cars to cosmetics and home appliances.

Capital Economics forecast inflation will jump up to six percent year-on-year in July, from 1.1 percent in May, as a result.

"The government ended the country's lockdown (in June) and there are signs that economic activity has started to recover," Capital Economics said in a report.

"Nonetheless, we expect the recovery to be slow-going as fiscal austerity measures bite."

The kingdom also risks losing its edge against other Gulf states, including its principal ally the United Arab Emirates, which introduced VAT at the same time but has so far refrained from raising it beyond five percent.

"Saudi Arabia is taking massive risks with contractionary fiscal policies," said Tarek Fadlallah, chief executive officer of the Middle East unit of Nomura Asset Management.

But the kingdom has few choices as oil revenue declines.

Its finances have taken another blow as authorities massively scaled back this year's hajj pilgrimage, from 2.5 million pilgrims last year to around a thousand already inside the country, and suspended the lesser umrah because of coronavirus.

Together the rites rake in some $12 billion annually.

The International Monetary Fund warned the kingdom's GDP will shrink by 6.8 percent this year -- its worst performance since the 1980s oil glut.

The austerity drive would boost state coffers by 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), according to state media.

But the measures are unlikely to plug the kingdom's huge budget deficit.

The Saudi Jadwa Investment group forecasts the shortfall will rise to a record $112 billion this year.