Oil prices pull Tadawul down

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Dubai, Apr 27: Saudi Arabia has reported 1,289 new Covid-19 cases on April 27, its Ministry of Health tweeted.

Of the newly diagnosed cases, Jeddah recorded 294 infections, followed by Makkah (218) and Madinah (202).

The ministry also confirmed five additional coronavirus-induced deaths, spiking the total death toll to 144.

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Since the outbreak of the virus strain in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year, Saudi Arabia has reported a total of 18,811 Covid-19 infections.

As many as 2,531 patients have till now recovered from the virus.

Oman
The sultanate registered 51 new Covid-19 cases on April 27, including 37 nationals and 14 expatriates, spiking the total number of infections to 2,049, Oman News Agency tweeted.

Meanwhile, 10 coronavirus-related deaths have been confirmed in the country.

Qatar
The Ministry of Public Health has reported 957 Covid-19 cases among the 3,420 people tested in the last 24 hours.

As many as 85,709 people have been tested for the virus across the country.

The total number of Covid-19 infections since the outbreak has now risen to 11,244.

Abu Dhabi, Jan 16: The number of people being killed by terrorism activities worldwide has decreased significantly over the recent years, according to the latest Global Terrorism Index.

The 2019 Global Terrorism Index, which was presented at a forum in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday also showed that the UAE improved its ranking in the index by coming down to 130th rank among the 163 countries. The terrorism impact in the UAE is categorised as 'very low'. In the UAE, only two terrorism incidents were reported over the past decade - one in 2010 and another in 2014 - and there were no casualties.

Commenting on the report, Mansour Al Mansouri, director of the UAE National Media Council (NMC) said: "These findings rightly show the UAE as one of the safest countries in the world in terms of terror threat."

The index showed that the total number of deaths from terrorism declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2018, falling by 15.2 per cent to 15,952 deaths. This represents a 53 per cent reduction since its peak in 2014 when 33,555 people were killed in terrorist attacks.

The index published for the seventh year in a row, ranks 163 countries across the globe according to the relative impact of terrorism. This takes into account the number of terrorist incidents, deaths caused by terror and total value of property damage.

The latest results saw three Middle East countries - Iraq, Syria and Yemen - continue in the top 10 positions of the index.

The findings also showed Taleban overtaking Daesh as the deadliest terrorist group in the world, accounting for 38 per cent of all terrorist deaths. This is an increase of 71 per cent. Afghanistan is the country most affected by terrorism in 2018 followed by Iraq, Nigeria, Syria and Pakistan, according to the report. The least impacted nations were Belarus, Guinea-Bissau, Oman, The Gambia and North Korea.

During his presentation of the key findings of the index at the Foreign Correspondent's Club of the UAE (FCC), Serge Stroobants, director of Europe and Mena at the Institute of Economics and Peace, said lesser people were now being killed in terrorism activities.

"There have been long-term trends in global terrorism, with deaths caused by terror down by 52 per cent compared to high point of 2014, which saw Daesh and Boko Haram at their peak," said Stroobants attributing the decrease in the deaths to the increase in security measures and cooperation among nations in the fight against terrorism.

In contrast to this, there has been a 320 per cent increase in far-right terrorist incidents in the West, with political ideology being the driving force behind an increased proportion of terror motivation.

"There has been an increase in far-right terrorism in Western Europe, North America and Oceania for the third consecutive year," said Stroobants.

Terrorism still remains a global security threat, according the index, with 71 countries recording more than one death - the second highest number of countries since 2002.

Stroobants said conflicts remain the main cause of terrorism with 90 per cent of terrorist incidents occurring in places where there are conflicts or insurgencies.

The report said the global economic impact of terrorism was $33 billion in 2018, a substantial decrease of 38 per cent from the previous year.

Boko Haram was responsible for 80 per cent of all female suicide attacks, said the terrorism index.

Global Terrorism Index: Most affected countries

>Afghanistan (7379 deaths)

>Iraq (1,054 deaths)

>Nigeria (2,040 deaths)

>Syria (662 deaths)

>Pakistan (537 deaths)

>Somalia (646 deaths)

>India (350 deaths)

>Yemen (301 deaths)

>The Philippines (297 deaths)

>Democratic Republic of the Congo (410 deaths)