Oil slips on record Saudi output; markets eye G20 and OPEC meetings

Agencies
November 27, 2018

Singapore, Nov 27: Oil slipped on Tuesday, pulled down by record Saudi Arabian production even as OPEC's top producer pushes for supply cuts ahead of the group's meeting in Austria next week.

International Brent crude oil futures (LCOc1) briefly dipped below $60 per barrel before rising back to $60.33 at 0520 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were at $51.33 per barrel, down 30 cents, or 0.6 percent.

Saudi Arabia raised oil production to an all-time high in November, an industry source said on Monday, pumping 11.1 million to 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) during the month.

Oil prices have lost almost a third of their value since early October, weighed down by an emerging supply overhang and widespread financial market weakness.

"The oil price correction has become a rout of historic proportions," U.S. investment bank Jefferies said in a note on Tuesday.

"The negative price reaction is as severe as the 2008 financial crisis and the aftermath of the November 2015 OPEC meeting, when the group decided not to act in the face of a very over-supplied market," it added.

Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer, said the weak sentiment "follows a surprisingly swift and pronounced change in the market mood from shortage fears to glut concerns," while the world economy was also slowing down.

Traders said they were awaiting the outcome of the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Buenos Aires and also the result of a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The leaders of the G20 countries, which make up the world's biggest economies, meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, with the trade war between Washington and Beijing atop the agenda. But with top crude producers Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia all present, oil policy is also expected to be discussed.

The G20 meeting will be followed by OPEC's annual meeting at its headquarters in Vienna on Dec. 6, when the producer cartel will discuss its output policy together with some non-OPEC producers, including Russia.

Saudi Arabia has been pushing for an OPEC cut, indicating it may reduce supply by 500,000 bpd.

"If this is from a November level of 11 million bpd, it is not particularly heroic," Jefferies said.

In favour of low oil prices for consumers, U.S. President Donald Trump has put pressure on his political ally Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de-facto leader, not to cut production.

Despite this, most analysts expect OPEC to start withholding some supply soon.

"We suspect that producers will start to withhold exports in the coming months, putting a floor under prices," said Capital Economics in a note, adding that it expected Brent to be around $60 per barrel by end-2019.

Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of energy consultancy FGE, warned that a failure by OPEC and Russia to significantly cut supply would mean crude prices would "fall further, perhaps to Brent at $50 per barrel and WTI of $40 per barrel or less."

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News Network
May 11,2020

May 11: Saudi Arabia will triple its value-added tax rate and suspend a cost of living allowance for state workers, it said on Monday, seeking to shield finances hit by low oil prices and a slump in demand for its lifeline export worsened by the new coronavirus.

Historic oil output cuts agreed by Riyadh and other major producers have given only limited support to prices after they sank on oversupply caused by a war for petroleum market share between the kingdom and its fellow oil titan Russia.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is also being hit hard by measures to fight the new coronavirus, which are likely to curb the pace and scale of economic reforms launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

"The cost of living allowance will be suspended as of June 1, and the value added tax will be increased to 15% from 5% as of July 1," Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in a statement reported by the state news agency. "These measures are painful but necessary to maintain financial and economic stability over the medium to long term...and to overcome the unprecedented coronavirus crisis with the least damage possible."

The austerity measures come after the kingdom posted a $9 billion budget deficit in the first quarter.

The minister said non-oil revenues were affected by the suspension and decline in economic activity, while spending had risen due to unplanned strains on the healthcare sector and the initiatives taken to support the economy.

"All these challenges have cut state revenues, pressured public finances to a level that is hard to deal with going forward without affecting the overall economy in the medium to long term, which requires more spending cuts and measures to support non-oil revenues stability," he added.

The government has cancelled and put on hold some operating and capital expenditures for some government agencies, and cut allocations for some reform initiatives and projects worth a total 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), the statement said.

Central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20 years and to their lowest since 2011, while oil revenues in the first three months of the year fell 24% from a year earlier to $34 billion, pulling total revenues down 22%.

"The reforms are positive from a fiscal side as greater adjustment is essential. However, the tripling of VAT is unlikely to help that much in 2020 revenue wise with the expected fall in consumption," said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

She said she kept unchanged her deficit forecast of 16.3% of GDP for this year, which already factors in a greater than previously announced spending cut.

About 1.5 million Saudis are employed in the government sector, according to official figures released in December.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia's King Salman ordered a monthly payment of 1,000 riyals ($267) to every state employee to compensate them for the rising living costs after the government hiked domestic gas prices and introduced value-added tax.

DIFFICULT TIMES

A committee has been formed to study all financial benefits paid to public sector employees and contractors, and will submit recommendations within 30 days, the statement said.

In late 2015, when oil prices fell from record highs, the kingdom slashed lavish bonuses, overtime payments and other benefits once considered routine perks in the public sector.

In a country without elections and with political legitimacy resting partly on distribution of oil revenue, the ability of citizens to adapt to such reforms is crucial for stability.

"Tripling the VAT will test the limits of the balance between revenues and consumption as the economy dives into a deep recession. The move will impact consumption and could also lower the expected revenues," said John Sfakianakis, a Gulf expert at the University of Cambridge.

"These are pro-austerity and pro-revenue moves rather than pro-growth ones," he said.

Hasnain Malik, head of equity strategy at Tellimer, said the VAT rise could bring about $24-$26.5 billion in additional non-oil fiscal revenue. The rise would hit consumer spending further but was a needed step towards fiscal sustainability, he said.

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News Network
May 5,2020

Dubai, May 5: Saudi Arabian prosecutors have ordered the arrest of a Saudi citizen for insulting an Asian expatriate and abusing him for not embracing Islam.

A video went viral online showing the expat, apparently with little knowledge of the Arabic language, being insulated by an Arabic-speaking man who does not appear in the clip, for having not embraced Islam and for not fasting.

A monitoring centre affiliated with the public prosecution examined the video the content of which “shows the citizen’s use of abusive words against the Asian resident on the pretext of inviting him to Islam,” the prosecution source said.

“The public prosecution closely follows up whatever infringes rights of citizens and residents including harm to their dignity and legal rights regardless of pretexts of such infringement,” the source added.

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News Network
May 19,2020

Dubai, May 19: In a heart-warming decision to reunite families that have been split by anti-Covid travel restrictions, the UAE has announced that residents with valid visas stranded outside the country can return from June 1.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Federal Authority for Identity and Citizenship said they will begin the process on Monday, June 1, by allowing the return of those residency holders currently stranded outside the country who have relatives in the UAE. Residents who meet this criteria must apply for a Resident Entry Permit on smartservices.ica.gov.ae.

The ministry and the authority said the decision was taken to reunite families that have been affected by the anti-coronavirus measures taken due to the exceptional circumstances.

"The UAE is keen to facilitate the procedures for holders of UAE residency visas who are stuck outside the country and reunite them with their families who were affected by the precautionary measures taken by the country in light of the current exceptional circumstances to combat Covid-19," the federal authorities were quoted by state news agency Wam.

Hundreds of UAE residents are currently stuck abroad and are separated from their families due to the unexpected freeze on air travel imposed by many countries as precautionary measures to curb the spread of coronavirus.

The #BringBackUAEresidents hashtag was trending on Twitter on Monday as several residents and families requested the government to expedite their return to the UAE.

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