OROP row: Burning medals insult to nation, says Parrikar; Kejriwal backs veterans

New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

London, May 11: Fugitive diamond merchant Nirav Modi's five-day extradition trial over the nearly USD2 billion Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud and money laundering case is set to begin in London's Westminster Magistrates' Court today.

The London High Court rejected Nirav Modi's bail plea in Punjab National Bank (PNB) bank fraud case for the fifth time in early March.

Modi, the prime accused in the PNB fraud case, is currently lodged at Wandsworth prison in south-west London and is wanted for his alleged role in the Rs 13,570 crore loss caused to the Punjab National Bank (PNB) along with his uncle, Mehul Choksi.

Modi, 48, was arrested in March last year by Scotland Yard in connection with the case.

Modi was remanded in custody till February 27, 2020, after he appeared before a UK court on Thursday via video link from his London prison.

The latest bail hearing followed further assurances by Modi, including an increase in the amount of security he had offered as a guarantee as well as stricter bail conditions.

On his last bail application, Modi offered USD 4 million as a security guarantee in return for bail, an offer that was rejected by judges who ruled that there was a real risk that Modi would flee the UK to a country which has no extradition treaty with India.

At the same hearing, the judge ruled that there was "strong evidence" that Modi had engaged in "witness intimidation" and destroying evidence.

Given the seriousness of such allegations, it was all but certain that the latest bail application would be rejected.

Modi's lawyers had contended that their client was being held in difficult conditions at Wandsworth prison and had also claimed that his mental health was deteriorating as a result of his incarceration.

However, ruling at the High Court today, Justice Ian Dove said there was a "clear need for this application to be refused in the present circumstances."

It comes just days after the second sale of assets belonging to Modi valued at millions of dollars.

The items include a luxury Rolls Royce car, a Patek Philippe watch and a painting by the renowned Indian artist Amrita Sher-Gil valued at USD 2.5 million but expected to fetch considerably more.

Meanwhile, Nirav's brother Neeshal Modi, who is also one of the co-conspirators in the PNB scam, has written to Enforcement Directorate, distancing himself from his brother's actions and said that he had no knowledge of it.

New Delhi, Jul 25: The Indian Air Force (IAF) has made key appointments in its different commands all across the country including formations that look after operations along the borders with China and Pakistan.

Air Marshal Vivek Ram Chaudhari has been appointed as the head of the Delhi-based Western Air Command (WAC) which looks after both the crucial borders, with China in Ladakh and all along Pakistan from Ladakh up to Bikaner in Rajasthan.

Chaudhari would be assuming charge of the new office on August 1, replacing Air Marshal B Suresh who is superannuating after a brief tenure of nine months there.

In the Shillong-based Eastern Command, incumbent Air Marshal RD Mathur would be moving to the Bangalore-based Training Command on October 1, he will be replaced by Air Marshal Amit Dev. The Eastern Command looks after the entire Northeastern region including the border with China from Sikkim to Arunachal Pradesh.

As per the new appointments issued on July 24, Kargil war gallantry awardee Air Marshal Dilip Kumar Patnaik would be taking over as the Senior Air Staff Officer (SASO) at the Prayagraj-based Central Air Command.

On October 1, the Air Force would also get a new in-charge of personnel in Air Marshal RJ Duckworth who is presently the SASO in the WAC.

Air Marshal Vikram Singh would be the next SASO of the WAC. Air Marshal J Chalapati-- the officer who had briefed the Supreme Court on the Rafale issue last year, would be the SASO of the Trivandrum-based Southern Air Command.