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New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

Mumbai, Jan 30: The Shiv Sena on Thursday endorsed Union home minister Amit Shah's view that alleged inflammatory statements made by Sharjeel Imam, an anti- Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) activist, were dangerous.

No politics should be done on the issue, and such "pest" afflicting the country should be finished off, it said.

Imam was arrested on Tuesday in connection with his speeches at Jamia Millia Islamia University in Delhi and in Aligarh during anti-CAA protests.

He has been booked for sedition, among other offences.

In an editorial published in its mouthpiece `Saamana', the Sena, a former ally of the BJP, said, "We agree with union home minister's comments that Sharjeel Imam's alleged words of separation are more dangerous than that of Kanhaiya Kumar."

Kumar, former student leader from Jawaharlal Nehru University, had been arrested over alleged separatist slogans shouted during a protest on varsity campus.

The Sena, which has formed alliance with the Congress and NCP to come to power in Maharashtra, is often seen walking a tightrope to preserve its credentials as a pro-Hindutva party.

"The union home ministry, while initiating action against Imam, should not indulge in politics and try to finish off this pest that is afflicting our country," the editorial said.

"One must find out why such language of breaking up this country into pieces is being used by the educated youth of this country more and more frequently. Who is spewing such venom into the mind of Sharjeel who did his graduation from IIT-B and now pursuing PhD from JNU?" the Sena asked.

"Even people involved in Elgar Parishad at Pune are facing sedition charges and these people have been known as intellectuals and are well-known personalities," said the party.

"A conspiracy to bring about a conflict between Hindus and Muslims and ensure continuance of anarchy and civil war as in Iraq and Afghanistan exists. The boost for such activities is coming from a 'political laboratory'," the editorial said.