Over 10 million Indian tourists expected to visit Thailand annually by 2028

Agencies
July 8, 2019

Jul 8: Thailand's struggling tourism industry is finding support with visitors from the population colossus to its west, just as the years of bumper arrivals from the giant to its north are beginning to wane.

At a beachfront hotel on the tropical island of Phuket, the occupancy rate from Chinese clientele has stalled, while bookings from India have begun to rise. The Vijitt Resort is one of many in Thailand that has more cause for optimism.

"We're starting to see new growth," said Kongsak Khoopongsakorn, Vijitt's general manager and vice president of the Thai Hotels Association. "Indians are now driving industry growth like the Chinese had previously done."

What's happening to Thai tourism could prove a canary in the coal mine for the leisure sector in other Asian economies as China matures and a new India emerges. The Thai industry had been expanding at about 10 per cent a year on escalating inbound Chinese arrivals, but a 2018 boat accident in Phuket that killed dozens of mainlanders and a slowing economy at home have triggered a drop in numbers.

In contrast, Indian arrivals accelerated in recent months due to more direct flights, a visa waiver and, most importantly, increasing wealth.

The rapid expansion of the middle class among India's 1.3 billion people has prompted Thai authorities to upgrade their estimates of Indian visitors. At least 10 million are now expected to arrive in 2028, a more than five-fold increase on 2018 visits. That sort of growth trajectory would mimic the rise of Chinese tourists, who jumped from 800,000 in 2008 to more than 10 million last year.

Although China will remain an important market, it is likely to offer less growth potential in the years ahead. India, meanwhile, is set to become the new expansion story in Thai tourism, an industry that accounts for about 20 per cent of gross domestic product.

Chinese visitors currently make up 28 per cent of total foreign arrivals, well ahead of Indians at 4 per cent. But within a decade, Indian arrivals are forecast to surge to about 15 per cent of the total, while Chinese are predicted to edge up to about 30 per cent.

"The Indian inbound market could potentially rival that of China," said Pisit Puapan, executive director of the Finance Ministry's Macroeconomic Policy Bureau. Pisit said high growth from India has also helped offset a decline from markets like Europe.

Thailand received about 180,000 Indian tourists in June, a record, the Tourism Ministry reported last week. It also said Indians spend 11 per cent more per trip than average foreign visitors.

Chinese arrivals could actually fall this year from 2018 as the yuan has weakened against the baht, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That might deter more cost-conscious Chinese tourists, or see them spend less if they do make the trip.

A cooling tourism market and dividend repatriation combined to help produce Thailand's first current account deficit since 2014. The country's forecast economic growth has already been revised down to the lowest level in four years as exports also fizzled.

Frequent flyer

There are more direct flights between Indian and Thai cities, one reason for the jump in visitors to Bangkok, Phuket and surrounding areas. They are drawn by Thailand's food and shopping, and its beaches are emerging as significant attractions.

India's fifth-largest airline GoAirlines India Pvt currently connects three Indian cities to Phuket, and plans to add seven more. InterGlobe Aviation Ltd's IndiGo launched services to the tropical island late last year.

Thai AirAsia Co Ltd, the kingdom's largest low-cost carrier, recorded 20 per cent growth in passengers traveling between India and Thailand in the first quarter of 2019 from a year earlier. It now operates 47 flights a week from Bangkok to nine Indian cities, and said it plans to add an additional destination.

With India projected to overtake China as the world's most populous nation in eight years, and its middle class forecast to keep expanding, Thai Hotels Association's Kongsak is cautious but hopeful about the future.

"We expect the industry will continue to grow," he said. "But it's important to spread the risk and have a good nationality mix in the market. We can't rely on any single market."

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Agencies
May 28,2020

More than one in six youths were jobless since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic while those who remain employed have seen their working hours cut by 23 per cent, according to a report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

According to the 'ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work: 4th edition' published on Wednesday, youths are being disproportionately affected by the pandemic, and the substantial and rapid increase in youth unemployment seen since February is affecting young women more than young men, reports Xinhua news agency.

The pandemic is inflicting a triple shock on young people.

Not only is it destroying their employment, but it is also disrupting education and training, and placing major obstacles in the way of those seeking to enter the labour market or to move between jobs, said the report.

At 13.6 per cent, the youth unemployment rate in 2019 was already higher than any other group.

There were around 267 million young people not in employment, education or training worldwide.

"If we do not take significant and immediate action to improve their situation, the legacy of the virus could be with us for decades," said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder.

"If their talent and energy is sidelined by a lack of opportunity or skills, it will damage all our futures and make it much more difficult to re-build a better, post-COVID economy."

The report called for urgent, large-scale and targeted policy responses to support youth, including broad-based employment/training guarantee programs in developed countries, and employment-intensive programs and guarantees in low- and middle-income economies.

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News Network
April 12,2020

Apr 12: India and other South Asian countries are likely to record their worst growth performance in four decades this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, the World Bank said on Sunday.

The South Asian region, comprising eight countries, is likely to show economic growth of 1.8 per cent to 2.8 per cent this year, the World Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus report, well down from the 6.3 per cent it projected six months ago.

India's economy, the region's biggest, is expected to grow 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent in the fiscal year that started on April 1. The World Bank has estimated it will grow 4.8 per cent to 5 per cent in the fiscal year that ended on March 31.

"The green shoots of a rebound that were observable at the end of 2019 have been overtaken by the negative impacts of the global crisis," the World Bank report said.

Other than India, the World Bank forecast that Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will also see sharp falls in economic growth.

Three other countries - Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Maldives - are expected to fall into recession, the World Bank said in the report, which was based on country-level data available as of April 7.

Measures taken to counter the coronavirus have disrupted supply chains across South Asia, which has recorded more than 13,000 cases so far - still lower than many parts of the world.

India's lockdown of 1.3 billion people has also left millions out of work, disrupted big and small businesses and forced an exodus of migrant workers from the cities to their homes in villages.

In the event of prolonged and broad national lockdowns, the report warned of a worst-case scenario in which the entire region would experience an economic contraction this year.

To minimize short-term economic pain, the Bank called for countries in the region to announce more fiscal and monetary steps to support unemployed migrant workers, as well as debt relief for businesses and individuals.

India has so far unveiled a $23 billion economic plan to offer direct cash transfers to millions of poor people hit by its lockdown. In neighbouring Pakistan, the government has announced a $6 billion plan to support the economy.

"The priority for all South Asian governments is to contain the virus spread and protect their people, especially the poorest who face considerable worse health and economic outcomes," said senior World Bank official Hartwig Schafer.

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Arab News
February 9,2020

London, Feb 9: A US court has rejected a Turkish attempt to dismiss civil cases brought by protesters who were violently attacked in Washington by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s security officers.

The incident took place in May 2017 during a visit to the US by the Turkish president. About a dozen bodyguards beat-up a group demonstrating outside the Turkish ambassador’s residence in Washington.

The attack, which was caught on video, left nine people injured and further strained US relations with Turkey.

While criminal charges against the security guards were dropped within a year, around the same time Turkey released a US pastor, the victims pressed ahead with a civil case.

On Thursday, a federal court denied Turkey’s request to have the two cases thrown out on the grounds that it should have sovereign immunity from legal proceedings.

US District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly said the protesters had not posed a threat and were merely gathered on a sidewalk outside the residence at Sheridan Circle when Erdogan’s security burst through a police line and attacked them.

“The Turkish security forces did not have the discretion to violently physically attack the protesters, with the degree and nature of force which was used, when the protesters were standing, protesting on a public sidewalk,” she said. “And, Turkish security forces did not have the discretion to continue violently physically attacking the protesters after the protesters had fallen to the ground or otherwise attempted to flee.”

The judge said Turkey “has not met its burden of persuasion to show that it is immune from suit in these cases.”

The ruling was welcomed by the victims of the attack, which Erdogan stopped to watch as he made his way from his car to inside the residence.

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