Over 40 trapped in Mumbai building collapse

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

New Delhi, Mar 5: Retirement fund body EPFO on Thursday lowered interest rate on provident fund deposits to 8.5 per cent for the current financial year, said Labour Minister Santosh Gangwar on Thursday.

The EPFO had provided 8.65 per cent rate of interest on EPF for 2018-19 to its around six crore subscribers. The decision was taken at a meeting of the the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) apex decision making body -- the Central Board of Trustee.

"The EPFO has decided to provide 8.5 per cent interest rate on EPF deposits for 2019-20 in the Central Board of Trustees (CBT) meeting today," Gangwar told reporters after the meeting here.

Now, the labour ministry requires the finance ministry's concurrence on the matter. Since the Government of India is the guarantor, the finance ministry has to vet the proposal for EPF interest rate to avoid any liability on account of shortfall in the EPFO income for a fiscal.

The finance ministry has been nudging the labour ministry for aligning the EPF interest rate with other small saving schemes run by the government like the public provident fund and post office saving schemes.

The EPFO had provided 8.65 per cent rate of interest to its subscribers for 2016-17 and 8.55 per cent in 2017-18. The rate of interest was slightly higher at 8.8 per cent in 2015-16.

It had given 8.75 per cent rate of interest in 2013-14 as well as 2014-15, higher than 8.5 per cent for 2012-13.

Srinagar, May 21: Two Border Security Force (BSF) personnel were killed and their weapons snatched by militants in the Pandach area on the outskirts of Srinagar yesterday.

According to IGP Kashmir Vijay Kumar, the two BSF jawans, who were on road surveillance deployment, were fired upon by two of the three terrorists on a motorcycle around 5:15 pm on the 90-Ft Road at Pandach, near Soura. 

They were critically injured and later succumbed to injuries. The terrorists escaped after taking away one AK rifle and one INSAS. Efforts were underway to trace the terrorists.

He said that two jawans, Constable Rana Mandol and Constable Ziaul Haque of ‘C’ company of 37th battalion, were injured and they later succumbed.

“The terrorists managed to take away the weapons of the martyrs. Area has been cordoned off and the search for the terrorists is on”, he said.

Residents around the spot said that the two soldiers were buying chicken for Iftar from a mutton dealer, around 300 meters away from their deployment location when three militants on a motorcycle stopped and opened fire on them.

Medical Superintendent SKIMS Dr Farooq Jan said that both the jawans were brought dead to the tertiary care hospital.

Senior Police officials said it was a “clear case of security lapse” as the two jawans had left their spot of deployment on Srinagar-Kargil-Leh road and gone to a shop 500 metres away on a different road.

They said that possibility of terror attacks and subsequently claims by the new outfit TRF had been flashed to all forces earlier this week.

The terror strike in the capital city has occurred a day after an encounter in downtown Srinagar, where two Hizbul Mujahideen militants, including the top wanted Junaid Sehrai, had been killed on Tuesday.

In the last one month, five Army and Police personnel and two militants had got killed in an encounter in Handwara area of Kupwara, a day before three CRPF men were killed in another attack.