Over 600 global academicians write to PM Modi, blame him for 'terrible state of affairs'

Chennai/New Delhi, Jan 14: India's annual electricity demand in 2019 grew at its slowest pace in six years with December marking a fifth straight month of decline, government data showed, amid a broader economic slowdown that led to a drop in sales of everything from cars to cookies and also to factories cutting jobs.

Electricity demand is seen as an important indicator of industrial output in the country and a sustained decline could mean a further slowdown in the economy.

India's power demand grew at 1.1% in 2019, data from the Central Electricity Authority showed, the slowest pace of growth since a 1% uptick seen in 2013. The power demand growth slowdown in 2013 was preceded by three strong years of consumption growth of 8% or more.

In December, the country's power demand fell 0.5% from the year-earlier period, representing the fifth straight month of decline, compared with a 4.3% fall in November.

But in India's western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, two of India's most industrialised provinces, monthly demand increased.

In October, power demand had fallen 13.2% from a year earlier, its steepest monthly decline in more than 12 years, as a slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy deepened.

Industry accounts for more than two-fifths of India's annual electricity consumption, while homes account for nearly a fourth and agriculture more than a sixth.

The slower demand growth is a blow for many debt-laden power producers, who are facing financial stress and are owed over $11 billion by state-run distribution companies.

India's overall economic growth slowed to 4.5% in the July-September quarter, government data released in November showed, the weakest pace since 2013 as consumer demand and private investment fell.

The government has estimated growth in the current financial year that runs through to March will be the slowest since the 2008 global crisis.

"This reflects overall economic slowdown, because if you look at other high frequency data like diesel consumption, everywhere you are seeing contraction," Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at L&T Financial Holdings.

But India's central bank will not have much scope to cut rates to stimulate the economy because inflation has been rising sharply and reached 7.35% in December compared with 1.97% in January last year.

Economists say India's growth will continue to hover around 4.5% levels in the Oct-Dec quarter.

"In the Oct-Dec quarter as well growth (GDP) will be around the same level as July-September. My estimate for the full year is around 4.7% growth," Nitsure said.

May 11: Saudi Arabia will triple its value-added tax rate and suspend a cost of living allowance for state workers, it said on Monday, seeking to shield finances hit by low oil prices and a slump in demand for its lifeline export worsened by the new coronavirus.

Historic oil output cuts agreed by Riyadh and other major producers have given only limited support to prices after they sank on oversupply caused by a war for petroleum market share between the kingdom and its fellow oil titan Russia.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is also being hit hard by measures to fight the new coronavirus, which are likely to curb the pace and scale of economic reforms launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

"The cost of living allowance will be suspended as of June 1, and the value added tax will be increased to 15% from 5% as of July 1," Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in a statement reported by the state news agency. "These measures are painful but necessary to maintain financial and economic stability over the medium to long term...and to overcome the unprecedented coronavirus crisis with the least damage possible."

The austerity measures come after the kingdom posted a $9 billion budget deficit in the first quarter.

The minister said non-oil revenues were affected by the suspension and decline in economic activity, while spending had risen due to unplanned strains on the healthcare sector and the initiatives taken to support the economy.

"All these challenges have cut state revenues, pressured public finances to a level that is hard to deal with going forward without affecting the overall economy in the medium to long term, which requires more spending cuts and measures to support non-oil revenues stability," he added.

The government has cancelled and put on hold some operating and capital expenditures for some government agencies, and cut allocations for some reform initiatives and projects worth a total 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), the statement said.

Central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20 years and to their lowest since 2011, while oil revenues in the first three months of the year fell 24% from a year earlier to $34 billion, pulling total revenues down 22%.

"The reforms are positive from a fiscal side as greater adjustment is essential. However, the tripling of VAT is unlikely to help that much in 2020 revenue wise with the expected fall in consumption," said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

She said she kept unchanged her deficit forecast of 16.3% of GDP for this year, which already factors in a greater than previously announced spending cut.

About 1.5 million Saudis are employed in the government sector, according to official figures released in December.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia's King Salman ordered a monthly payment of 1,000 riyals ($267) to every state employee to compensate them for the rising living costs after the government hiked domestic gas prices and introduced value-added tax.

DIFFICULT TIMES

A committee has been formed to study all financial benefits paid to public sector employees and contractors, and will submit recommendations within 30 days, the statement said.

In late 2015, when oil prices fell from record highs, the kingdom slashed lavish bonuses, overtime payments and other benefits once considered routine perks in the public sector.

In a country without elections and with political legitimacy resting partly on distribution of oil revenue, the ability of citizens to adapt to such reforms is crucial for stability.

"Tripling the VAT will test the limits of the balance between revenues and consumption as the economy dives into a deep recession. The move will impact consumption and could also lower the expected revenues," said John Sfakianakis, a Gulf expert at the University of Cambridge.

"These are pro-austerity and pro-revenue moves rather than pro-growth ones," he said.

Hasnain Malik, head of equity strategy at Tellimer, said the VAT rise could bring about $24-$26.5 billion in additional non-oil fiscal revenue. The rise would hit consumer spending further but was a needed step towards fiscal sustainability, he said.

New Delhi, Apr 12: With 34 deaths and 909 new positive COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, the total number of coronavirus cases in India on Sunday climbed to 8356, including 716 cured and discharged and 273 deaths, said the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

At present, there are 7367 active COVID-19 cases in the country.

"A total number of COVID-19 positive cases rises to 8356 in India, including 716 cured/discharged, 273 deaths and 1 migrated," said the Health Department.

The highest number of positive cases of coronavirus was reported from Maharashtra at 1761, including 127 deaths, followed by Delhi (1069 and 19 deaths), Tamil Nadu (969 and 10 deaths) and Rajasthan (700 and 3 deaths).

There are 452 coronavirus positive cases in Uttar Pradesh, including 45 cured and discharged and 5 deaths.

The states which have crossed 200-mark for COVID-19 positive cases also include Madhya Pradesh (532), Telangana (504), Gujarat (432), Andhra Pradesh (381) and Kerala (364).

While 19 people were detected positive for coronavirus in Chandigarh, 207 cases were confirmed from Jammu and Kashmir and 15 from Ladakh.

In North-East, Assam has confirmed the highest number of corona positive cases at 29, followed by Manipur and Tripur at two each and Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh at one each.