PM Modi shares pic with Priyanka and Nick, wishes them ‘happy married life'

Washington, Apr 8: Choosing stethoscope over the crown, Miss England 2019, Bhasha Mukherjee, has returned to work as a doctor as the world battles with coronavirus pandemic.

According to CNN, she was a junior doctor with a specialisation in respiratory medicine, before being crowned as Miss England in August last year. The beauty queen, who has her roots in India's Kolkata city, had taken a career break from the medical field.

She had paused her medical career for some humanitarian work that she was offered by several charities and was on a tour to different countries including India.

"I was invited to Africa, to Turkey, then to India, Pakistan and several other Asian countries to be an ambassador for various charity work," CNN quoted her as saying.

She had been in India at the beginning of March for four weeks. During her stay as an ambassador of the Coventry Mercia Lions Club, the 24-year-old had visited several schools and had donated stationery and other items to the needy.

Mukherjee then returned back UK as the situation worsened there with the coronavirus spreading at a fast rate. She then contacted the hospital and asked them that she wanted to rejoin.

According to CNN, the Miss England beauty pageant winner said that she felt wrong to be wearing the crown while people around the world were dying from the virus.

"When you are doing all this humanitarian work abroad, you're still expected to put the crown on, get ready... look pretty. I wanted to come back home. I wanted to come and go straight to work," CNN quoted her as saying.

"I felt a sense of this is what I'd got this degree for and what better time to be part of this particular sector than now. It was incredible the way the whole world was celebrating all key workers, and I wanted to be one of those, and I knew I could help," she added.

As the beauty queen has a recent travel history, she is currently in self-isolation and will return to work once her quarantine period is over.
She was crowned as Miss England 2019 in August last year.

According to World Health Organisation, 13,53,361people have been affected by coronavirus and over 80,000 people have lost their lives to it.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Mumbai, Jun 16: Filmmaker Dibakar Banerjee remembers Sushant Singh Rajput as a dance loving 'chhokra' from an engineering college who, having made it in Bollywood, was “enthused, sincere and totally focused” on his craft.

Banerjeee said the actor always had “a book or two” with him and took pride in the fact that he had an “inner intellectual life away from the shallower aspects of showbiz”.

Rajput was found dead in his Bandra apartment on Sunday at the age of 34, leaving his friends, colleagues and collaborators in a state of shock.

The Patna-born actor and the director worked together in 2015 film "Detective Byomkesh Bakshy!" when Rajput was a relative newcomer in the industry. Banerjee says it was Rajput's vulnerability and willingness to do different that made him stand out for the role.

In an interview with news agency, the filmmaker looks back at Rajput's sincerity, his love for science and astronomy and how an outsider has to work harder than a "mediocre, unmotivated and entitled establishment elite" to succeed in Bollywood.

Excerpts:

You worked with Sushant when he was less than two-year-old in the film industry. What struck you the most in him to cast as Detective Byomkesh Bakshy?

Banerjee: His vulnerability and intensity and the ambition to do different things than the usual Bollywood stuff.

What were your memories of Sushant- the actor and the person?

Banerjee: As an actor he would tense himself up for the scene and then completely plunge in take after take. He would put a lot of value on preparation. He would be up the previous night of the shoot, reading the scene and making notes and land up on the sets all raring to go.

He would be on, ready and give his hundred per cent throughout the shoot of Byomkesh - no matter how hard or long the day. The unit did not really have to worry about him - considering he was the star. That's what I remember - a total pro, enthused, sincere and totally focused.

As a person, he seemed to me a happy dance loving 'chhokra' from an engineering college who had made it in showbiz and now was serious about acting. He was deeply nostalgic about his carefree student days in Delhi. We used to laugh a lot - I remember that quite clearly.

Sushant's friends say that he spoke more about books and his love for astronomy than films and their fate, which is rare for an actor in the industry. Do you also remember him that way?

Banerjee: Totally true. He was a science and astronomy nut. Always had a book or two with him - and was proud of the fact that he had an inner intellectual life away from the shallower aspects of showbiz. I recognized it as a reflex, protective action to prevent the Bollywood swamp sucking him in totally. And also an identity he wanted to protect and project.

Sushant's death has brought to the fore the struggles of outsiders and the alienation they often face from the nepotistic culture of the industry. Did you feel that Sushant was also fighting this battle despite being a successful actor?

Banerjee: We all fight it, day in and out - whether successful or failing. But the trick is to define that success and failure ourselves and not let the narrative constantly forced by the establishment to get to you. Those who know this weather the storm and ultimately survive and thrive.

The biggest unfairness in all this is that it takes double the talent, energy and hard work for an outsider to convince the audience and the industry that he or she is as safe a box office bet as a mediocre, unmotivated and entitled establishment elite.

The media colludes in this by wallowing in family, coterie and celebrity worship. This leads to deep anger and frustration. Those who can let this slide survive. Those who can't - those who hurt a little more or are vulnerable and impressionable - they are at risk.