PM Modi's cashflow woes just got more bearable thanks to RBI switch

Agencies
December 18, 2018

Dec 18: Facing cash flow problems just months before a national election, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could have a savior in the country’s new central bank chief.

India’s spending is exceeding its revenue, leaving the government looking for funds to help an ailing banking sector -- key to boosting loans and investment and creating jobs. Finance ministry officials estimate the Reserve Bank of India has at least 3.6 trillion rupees ($50 billion) more capital than it needs, which they say can be used to help bolster the banks.

“It will be difficult for the government to meet its targets absent substantial new revenue from asset sales or as a transfer from the RBI,” said Sasha Riser-Kositsky, an analyst with Eurasia Group. “The government could also seek to defer some payments into the next fiscal year in order to paper over the deficit.”

Keeping the economic engines firing ahead of a general election next year is crucial for Modi, whose party was rocked by defeats in key regional elections last week. While using the RBI’s surplus capital to support the banks was a point of contention with former governor Urjit Patel, it may not be the case now.

Shaktikanta Das, a former bureaucrat picked by Modi to steer the RBI after Patel’s exit, is open to hearing the government out on its concerns about the economy -- whose growth slowed in the three months through September. Getting the RBI to share its capital will help the government boost growth without missing its budget deficit goal of 3.3 percent of gross domestic product.

While the government has denied having asked for any specific amount from the RBI, the central bank has agreed to form an expert panel to decide on the appropriate level of reserves it should hold.

The government plans to infuse about 420 billion rupees ($5.9 billion) to recapitalize some state-run banks this month. It also has to pay for a health care program and purchase crops from farmers at guaranteed prices.

Everyone agrees that more needs to be done to recapitalize state-run banks, but not all approve of how the administration is going about it. The government’s increasing involvement in the central bank’s affairs could undermine gains in the country’s banking system, S&P Global Ratings said.

Still, with the fiscal deficit having touched 104 percent of budget estimate in October and revenue from tax and asset sales trailing estimates, the RBI may be Modi’s best hope of swaying voters. Here’s why:

Revenue

With total revenue in April to October accounting for 45.7 percent of the full-year target and lower than last year’s 48.1 percent, pressure is mounting on tax authorities and the asset sales department to make good on goals.

Monthly collections of the new goods and services tax have trailed the 1.1 trillion rupees target, and the finance ministry is banking on direct tax to make up for the shortfall. Sales of stakes in state-run companies have also lagged, with only 42 percent of the targeted revenue realized so far.

Expenditure

Spending in April to October was 59.6 percent of the budget estimate. A program to provide guaranteed prices to farmers for crops is expected to add to the food subsidy bill, while fuel subsidy has risen on higher oil prices.

The cost of a 120 billion-rupee health care program, which kicked off in September, is expected to be reflected in the fiscal second half.

Meeting budget goals may require cutting expenditure, but that may be easier said than done in an election year.

"With an election on the horizon, I suspect sparking a bit more growth will take precedence over meeting fiscal obligations," said Richard Rossow, an Indian policy expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Modi thinks he has a very real chance at serving a second term, so he may moderate any inclination to break the bank too severely."

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News Network
February 12,2020

Feb 12: China on Wednesday reported another drop in the number of new cases of a viral infection and 97 more deaths, pushing the total dead past 1,100 as postal services worldwide said delivery was being affected by the cancellation of many flights to China.

The National Health Commission said 2,015 new cases had been reported over the last 24 hours, declining for a second day. The total number of cases in mainland China reached 44,653, although many experts say a large number of others infected have gone uncounted.

The additional deaths raised the mainland toll to 1,113. Two people have died elsewhere, one in Hong Kong and one in the Philippines.

In the port city of Tianjin, just southeast of Beijing, a cluster of cases has been traced to a department store in Baodi district. One-third of Tianjin’s 104 confirmed cases are in Baodi, the Xinhua state news agency reported.

A salesperson working in the store’s small home appliance section became the first individual in the cluster to be diagnosed on Jan. 31, Xinhua said. The store was already closed at that point, then disinfected on Feb. 1. Nevertheless, several more diagnoses soon followed.

The next to have their infections confirmed were also salespeople at the store. They had not visited Wuhan recently and, with the exception of one married couple, the patients worked in different sections of the store and did not know one another, according to Xinhua.

Japan’s Health Ministry said that 39 new cases have been confirmed on a cruise ship quarantined at Yokohama, bringing the total to 174 on the Diamond Princess.

The U.S. Postal Service said that it was “experiencing significant difficulties” in dispatching letters, parcels and express mail to China, including Hong Kong and Macau.

Both the U.S. and Singapore Post said in notes to their global counterparts that they are no longer accepting items destined for China, “until sufficient transport capacity becomes available.”

The Chinese mail service, China Post, said it was disinfecting postal offices, processing centers and vehicles to ensure the virus doesn’t spread via the mail and to protect staff.

It said the crisis is also impacting mail that transits China to other destinations including North Korea, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.

The World Health Organization has named the disease caused by the virus as COVID-19, avoiding any animal or geographic designation to avoid stigmatization and to show the illness comes from a new coronavirus discovered in 2019.

The illness was first reported in December and connected to a food market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak has largely been concentrated.

Zhong Nanshan, a leading Chinese epidemiologist, said that while the virus outbreak in China may peak this month, the situation at the center of the crisis remains more challenging.

“We still need more time of hard working in Wuhan,” he said, describing the isolation of infected patients there a priority.

“We have to stop more people from being infected,” he said. “The problem of human-to-human transmission has not yet been resolved.”

Without enough facilities to handle the number of cases, Wuhan has been building prefabricated hospitals and converting a gym and other large spaces to house patients and try to isolate them from others.

China’s official media reported Tuesday that the top health officials in Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been relieved of their duties. No reasons were given, although the province’s initial response was deemed slow and ineffective. Speculation that higher-level officials could be sacked has simmered, but doing so could spark political infighting and be a tacit admission of responsibility.

The virus outbreak has become the latest political challenge for the party and its leader, Xi Jinping, who despite accruing more political power than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, has struggled to handle crises on multiple fronts. These include a sharply slowing domestic economy, the trade war with the U.S. and pushback on China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies.

China is struggling to restart its economy after the annual Lunar New Year holiday was extended to try to curb the spread of the virus. About 60 million people are under virtual quarantine and many others are still working at home.

In Hong Kong, the diagnosis of four people living in an apartment building prompted worried comparisons with the deadly SARS pandemic of 17 years ago.

More than 100 people were evacuated from the building after a 62-year-old woman diagnosed with the virus was found living 10 floors directly below a man who was earlier confirmed with the virus.

Health officials called it a precautionary measure and sought to assuage fears of an epidemic, dismissing similarities to the SARS community outbreak at the Amoy Gardens housing estate in 2003.

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Agencies
May 30,2020

New Delhi, May 30: The Congress on Friday described the first year of the Modi government as a "year of disappointment, disastrous management and diabolical pain".

Congress leader K C Venugopal said the six years of the Modi dispensation have seen fraying of bonds of empathy, fraternity and brotherhood with increase in acts of communal and sectarian violence.

Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Surjewala said that at the end of six years, it appears the Modi government is at war with its people and is inflicting wounds on them, instead of healing them.

"It is inflicting wounds on Mother India," he said.

"This government is trying to fill coffers of the select rich and is inflicting pain on the poor," Surjewala said.

On the BJP's charge of the Congress playing politics over the COVID-19 crisis, Venugopal said the opposition party did not indulge in any politics and gave suggestions instead.

"Being a responsible opposition, it is our duty to raise the problems faced by the common people. As opposition, we highlighted the failures of the government," he said.

Venugopal said the government "is totally insensitive" to the plight of migrant labourers and farmers.

Surjewala also demanded that a virtual session of Parliament be convened immediately to discuss pressing issues and the due process be set in motion for holding of meetings of various parliamentary committees.

Modi and his cabinet had taken oath on this day last year for a second term in office.

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News Network
April 4,2020

Mumbai, Apr 4: As many as six Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) personnel stationed at Mumbai airport in Maharashtra have tested positive for coronavirus, taking the total number of positive cases among the central force to 11. The first case of a CISF jawan being diagnosed with the viral disease was reported on March 28. 

After the first case, the armed police force reported four more cases of COVID-19 among the personnel stationed at the airport on Thursday. On the same day, the CISF collected samples of 146 staff and sent them to Kasturba hospital for testing. The results, which arrived on Friday, recorded six more COVID-19 cases among, reported news agency.

The personnel were posted at Kharghar adjoining Mumbai, a senior official told news agency.

As of now, there are 14 COVID-19 cases in Panvel Municipal Corporation (PMC) area in Mumbai. Kharghar comes under the civic body's jurisdiction.

All the 146 CISF personnel were shifted to a quarantine centre at a facility at Kamothe reported the Times of India.

Maharashtra reported 67 new COVID-19 cases, taking the total tally to 490. A total of 26 deaths have been reported in the state.  

In the meantime, the Centre on Friday said there is no shortage of medical supplies across the country to fight COVID-19 outbreak.

"The government of India is making sure that all the essential medical supplies are in place to fight COVID-19. Sixty-two lifeline Udan flights transported over 15.4 tons of essential medical supplies in the last five days," Union Minister for Chemical and Fertilisers DV Sadanada Gowda said in a tweet.

The government is also paying full attention to the manufacturing activities of essential items like pharmaceuticals and hospital devices. For this, over 200 units in Special Economic Zones (SEZs)  are operational, he added.

"A Central Control Room has also been set up for close monitoring of the distribution of essential medical items and to address logistic related issues," Gowda said.

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