PM Modi’s goal of a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is at risk

Agencies
September 20, 2019

Sept 20: India’s slowdown and a simmering shadow banking crisis is putting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of crafting a $5 trillion economy by 2025 at risk.

The nation entered 2019 as the world’s sixth-biggest economy poised to become the fifth. Instead, it has slipped a notch to seventh place as a collapse in consumption slowed gross domestic product growth to the weakest in six years. External shocks from trade wars to surging oil prices are exacerbating that pain.

Troubled by the grim prospects, the central bank has lowered interest rates to a nine-year low and Governor Shaktikanta Das wants other stakeholders -- from the government to banks to the private sector -- to step up. But with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman facing lower revenue prospects that threaten her budget gap goal, the heavy lifting on stimulus appears to lie with the Reserve Bank of India.

Das may be able to ease a financing squeeze, but it’ll take delivery on big bang reforms to unlock the productivity gains needed to power the economy toward Modi’s goals. While his return to office this year with a bigger mandate stoked expectations among investors for bolder reforms, that hope is fading 100 days into his second term as global investors head for the exit.

Unemployment at a 45-year high has hurt demand for everything from soaps to 7-cent cookies, while car sales have slumped the most on record and new investments have been sluggish as a lingering shadow banking crisis curbs lending. That’s caused growth to decelerate for five straight quarters to 5% in the three months to June -- the weakest since March 2013 -- and well below the 8% plus annual expansion needed to achieve the goal.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“We expect the first-term reforms of the Modi government, including a clean-up of the banking sector, a new bankruptcy law, and a new indirect tax structure, to mark a transition to a faster-growth trajectory. These should lift potential growth to 8% from around 7.4% now. At the same time, we expect a recovery in actual growth, picking up from an estimated 6.2% in fiscal 2020 to 8.5% in fiscal 2025."

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

“For the economy to reach $5 trillion, it will take the types of reform that were long promised: massive reductions in regulations, streamlining of labor laws, privatization of state entities, investments in infrastructure," said Vivek Wadhwa, a distinguished fellow and professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s College of Engineering at Silicon Valley. “Yet little happened," he said.

That laundry list needs to be implemented quickly as India, according to most economists, faces a structural as well as a cyclical slowdown. New measures announced so far by the government to bolster growth are seen falling short of addressing the pain points.

Underpinning the target of $5 trillion is the government’s forecast of 8% average GDP growth, according to Shilan Shah, senior India economist with Capital Economics in Singapore. “That is setting a very high bar," he said.

Oil Prices

Volatile oil prices following the attack on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia are an added risk to the economy that imports 80% of its crude oil needs, while slowing global growth spawned by trade tensions have subdued demand for its exports.

“There is clearly a demand recession going on right now," said Girija Pande, chairman of Singapore-based Apex Avalon Consulting Pte. and a former CEO of Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. “One has to boost aggregate demand and one of the ways of doing that is by lowering rates."

Another way is by attracting large dollops of foreign investments into fresh projects and be part of trading blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. While India has jumped in the ease of doing business rankings, it has not been enough to attract significant foreign capital to become part of global supply chains despite some initial hopes that businesses might relocate to shield themselves from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

While Modi has seen through far-reaching reforms -- giving RBI an inflation targeting mandate, introducing a nationwide consumption tax and passing an insolvency law -- in his first term, he’s fallen short of overhauling the banking system. Besides, large parts of the economy are yet to recover from his decision to ban high-value bills in 2016.

“Investors should await clarity in the coming months on what steps the government will take to ease labor laws, reform the banking system and privatize state-owned enterprises," said Amitabh Dubey, an analyst at TS Lombard.

“But at the same time they should be prepared for a continuation of past policies: namely, a mix of reform, state control and populism."

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News Network
May 21,2020

Bengaluru, May 21: The COVID-19-induced lockdown saw a spurt in crybercrimes in India with Kerala recording the highest number during the period, according to an analysis of IT security solutions provider K7 Computing.

The report analyses various cyberattacks within India during the pandemic and reveals that threat actors targeted the States with COVID-19-themed attacks aimed at exploiting user trust.

The sudden surge in the frequency of attacks witnessed from February 2020 to mid-April 2020 indicates that scamsters across the world were exploiting the widespread panic around coronavirus at both the individual and corporate level, the company said in a statement.

These attacks aimed to compromise computers and mobile devices to gain access to users confidential data, banking details and cryptocurrency accounts.

The key threats seen during this period ranged from phishing attacks to rogue apps disguised as COVID-19 information apps that targeted users sensitive data.

Phishing attacks were noticed more in Tier-II and Tier-III cities while the metros fared better.

Smaller cities saw over 250 attacks being blocked per 10,000 users.

Users from Ghaziabad and Lucknow seem to have faced almost six and four times the number of attacks, respectively, as Bengaluru users.

In Kerala, regions like Kottayam, Kannur, Kollam, and Kochi saw the highest hits with 462, 374, 236, and 147 attacks respectively, while the state as a whole saw around 2,000 attacks during the period, the highest thus far in the country.

This was followed by Punjab with 207 attacks and Tamil Nadu at 184 attacks, the statement said.

A majority of the recorded attacks were phishing attacks with sophisticated campaigns that could easily snare even the most educated users, it said.

These attacks were aimed at heightening users fears and creating a sense of urgency to take action.

The report noted phishing attacks where scamsters posed as representatives of the United States Department of the Treasury, the World Health Organisation, and the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

Users were encouraged to visit links that would automatically download malware on the host computer such as the Agent Tesla keylogger or Lokibot information-stealing malware, infamous banking Trojans such as Trickbot or Zeus Sphinx, and even disastrous ransomware.

Other attacks included infected COVID-19 Android apps like CoronaSafetyMask that scam users with promises of masks for an upfront payment; the spyware app Project Spy; and seemingly genuine apps that are infected with dangerous malware like banking Trojans such as Ginp, Anubis and Cerberus, it was stated.

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News Network
February 13,2020

Feb 13: Two Indian crew on board a cruise ship off the Japanese coast have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, the Indian Embassy in Japan said on Wednesday as authorities confirmed that 174 people have been infected with the deadly disease.

The cruise ship Diamond Princess with 3,711 people on board arrived at the Japanese coast early last week and was quarantined after a passenger who de-boarded last month in Hong Kong was found to be the carrier of the novel virus on the ship.

A total of 138 Indians, including passengers and crew, were on board the ship.

“Due to the suspicion of novel coronavirus (nCoV) infection, the ship has been quarantined by the Japanese authorities till February 19, 2020,” the embassy said in a statement.

“Altogether 174 people have been tested positive for nCoV, including two Indian crew members,” it said.

All the infected people have been taken to hospitals for adequate treatment, including further quarantine, in accordance with the Japanese health protocol, it said.

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Agencies
January 12,2020

Mumbai, Jan 12: Thousands of citizens on Sunday congregated in Mumbai's suburban Jogeshwari to oppose the new citizenship law, the proposed NRC and NPR.

They also condemned last Sunday's violence on the JNU campus in Delhi, where masked men ran riot and attacked students. Leftist organisations had claimed RSS-affiliated ABVP's role in the attack, a charge denied by the students' body.

Former Tata Institute of Social Science (TISS) general secretary Fahad Ahmed told PTI that they assembled under the aegis of 'Hum Bharat Ke Log' in Millat Nagar area.

"Prime minister Narendra Modi should call 56 students from across the country to debate on the CAA, NRC and NPR," Ahmed said in an apparent jibe at Modi's "56 inch chest" remark, which the latter had made ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

"Why the PM is not talking to us? Why is he not communicating? Even the Britishers used to talk to Indians whom they ruled, but our PM is not talking to poor people," he alleged.

Bollywood actor Sushasht Singh also spoke on the occasion.

"We are people of this country and such acts (CAA) are tarnishing the image of our country," he said.

At the gathering, people waved banners with slogans like "I Am From Gujarat, My Documents Burned in 2002", "No CAA, Boycott NRC, Stop Dividing India, Don't Divide us", "Save Constitution", written on them.

A large number of police personnel were present at the venue.

The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which was notified on January 10, grants Indian citizenship to non-Muslim minorities migrated to India from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh till December 31, 2014, following persecution over their faith.

Massive protests were witnessed against the CAA, mainly by the student community, since its passage by Parliament in December last year.

Opposition parties have been dubbing the CAA an "anti-Muslim" legislation, a charge being debunked by the government.

The Congress and other parties like the TMC have also opposed the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the National Population Register (NPR).

Union home minister Amit Shah has said that the government won't rest until persecuted refugees are granted Indian citizenship.

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