Power centralisation in PMO behind poor economy: Sena

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Coronavirus lockdown in India has been extended till June 30 with more relaxations.

While the lockdown has been extended in containment zones, relaxations outside containment zones include reopening of religious places for public  from June 8. 

Hotels, restaurants and shopping malls also to open from June 8. Decision on opening educational institutions to be taken in July.
 

New Delhi, Jun 22: India's COVID-19 cases per lakh people is one of the lowest in the world despite its high population density, and the recovery rate has now reached almost 56 per cent, the Union Health Ministry said on Monday.

For every one lakh population, there are 30.04 coronavirus cases in India, while the global average is over three times at 114.67, the ministry said, referring to the WHO Situation Report 153, dated June 21.

“This low figure is thus a testimony to the graded, pre-emptive and pro-active approach the Government of India along with the states and UTs took for prevention, containment and management of COVID-19," the ministry said in a statement.

Citing the WHO Situation Report, the ministry said the US has 671.24 cases per lakh population, while Germany, Spain, Brazil and the UK have 583.88, 526.22, 489.42 and 448.86 cases per lakh population, respectively.

It said Russia has 400.82 cases per lakh people, while Italy, Canada, Iran and Turkey have 393.52, 268.98, 242.82 and 223.53, respectively.

Coming back to India, as on Monday morning, the total number of coronavirus cases stood at 4,25,282 and the death toll at 13,699, according to figures issued by the ministry.

In its update issued at 8 AM Monday, the ministry said 9,440 COVID-19 patients recovered in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of recoveries to 2,37,195, a recovery rate of 55.77 per cent.

Presently, there are 1,74,387 active cases and all are under medical supervision, it said.

"The difference between the recovered patients and the active COVID-19 cases continues to widen. Today, the number of recovered patients has crossed the number of active patients by 62,808," the ministry said.

The COVID-19 testing infrastructure is continuously being ramped up and number of government labs has been increased to 723 and the private labs to 262, adding up to a total of 985, it said.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research, a total of 69,50,493 samples have been tested up to 21 June, 1,43,267 of them just on Sunday.

On Monday, the country added 14,821 new COVID-19 cases in a single day, pushing the tally to 4,25,282, while the death toll rose to 13,699 with 445 new fatalities reported till 8 am.

The country breached the four lakh-mark on Sunday, eight days after crossing three lakh COVID-19 cases. It has recorded 2,34,747 infections since June 1.

Monday was the 11th day in a row when the country registered over 10,000 cases.