Previous govts hated development, says PM Modi

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

New Delhi, April 5: The number of coronavirus cases in India has surged past 3500 with 505 new cases in the last 24 hours from across the country.

According to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the total number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country has gone up to 3,577 as on Sunday. So far, 83 people have died of the coronavirus.

Among States, the tally in Maharashtra stood at 690. According to Maharashtra Health Minister Rajesh Tope, till now Mumbai has reported 29 positive cases, Pune 17, PCMC 4, Ahmednagar 3, Aurangabad 2 among others.

Here are the top developments of the day related to the pandemic.

1) Four new COVID-19 positive cases reported in Uttarakhand today, taking the total number of positive cases in the State to 26. Four persons have been treated and discharged till date, according to the Directorate of Health Services, Uttarakhand.

2) Prime Minister Narendra Modi today called up two former Presidents -- Pranab Mukherjee and Pratibha Patil and had a discussion on COVID-19 related issues. He also called up two former Prime Ministers -- Manmohan Singh and HD Deve Gowda -- to discuss COVID-19 situation.

3) The Prime Minister also called up leaders of various political parties like Sonia Gandhi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, K Chandrashekar Rao, MK Stalin, Parkash Singh Badal and Mayawati.

4) Total coronavirus positive cases rose to 68 in Punjab after three more cases were reported today --- one each in Ludhiana, SAS Nagar and Barnala. The person found positive in Ludhiana had attended the Tablighi Jamaat event in Delhi.

5) No evidence of COVID-19 being airborne yet, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

7) With 14 new cases in Kashmir division, the total number of positive cases in Jammu and Kashmir now at 106. Active cases in Kashmir -- 82 and Jammu -- 18, said Rohit Kansal, Principal Secretary, Planning, UT of Jammu and Kashmir.

8) "There is an insufficiency of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) kits and N95 masks. We are in touch with the Centre and other agencies for supply. Receiving 15,000 PPE kits today. Requested Centre for 5 lakh PPE kits received 4,000 only," said Bihar's Principal Secretary, Health, Sanjay Kumar.

9) The total number of positive cases in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, till now is 122 after 9 more positive cases were found today, according to Indore Chief Medical and Health Officer Dr Praveen Jadia.

10) Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan visits AIIMS dedicated centre for COVID19 in Jhajjar, Haryana. He said: "All 162 patients admitted here are in stable condition."

11) 86 COVID-19 positive cases reported in Tamil Nadu today out of which 85 had attended the Tableeghi Jamaat event at Markaz Nizamuddin, Delhi, according to Beela Rajesh Tamil Nadu Health Secretary. There are 571 COVID positive cases in Tamil Nadu out of which 522 cases are from the people who had attended the religious function in Delhi, she said.

12) The Congress party on Sunday posed nine questions to the Centre, demanding compensation to the family of those, who died after battling with the coronavirus.

13) 47 new coronavirus positive cases reported in Rajasthan today, taking the total number of positive cases in the state to 253.

14) 8 new COVID-19 cases reported in Kerala, which include 6 imports and 2 contact cases, said Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

15) "PPE kits are imported. So there was a shortage initially in the country but the government started taking action in this regard from January. Domestic manufacturers have started production. We have also started procuring PPE kits from other countries," said Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secy, Health Ministry. 

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 14: The Kerala government on Monday requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to arrange special flights to the Gulf to bring back non resident Keralites stranded there due to the lockdown.

In a letter to Modi, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said many Keralites who had gone on visit visas and in search of employment were finding it difficult to continue there without jobs.

"While we appreciate the constraints faced in allowing international travel as the threat of COVID-19 has not yet receded, it is requested that special consideration to their needs be given and at an earliest opportune time, the Government of India consider arranging special flights to bring these people back," Vijayan said in the letter.

All International health protocols can be followed while extending this facility, he said and assured that testing and quarantine needs of Keralites who are returning would be undertaken by the state government. During the video conferencing the Prime Minister had with Chief Ministers on April 11, this matter had been broght to Modi's notice, Vijayan said.