To protest is our democratic right, but keep emotions under control: Shahi Imam

Bengaluru, May 27: Amid uncertainty caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has disrupted school education in Karnataka, the state government is seeking the help of the Union Ministry of Information and Broadcasting to televise classes, a state minister said on Tuesday.

"We request you to provide minimum three channels on the Doordarshan network exclusively for the Department of Public Instruction, Government of Karnataka," Primary and Secondary Education Minister Suresh Kumar said in a letter to Union I&B Minister Prakash Javadekar.

Suggesting co-branding the channels under DD and the state education department, he asked for the channels to be mandatorily transmitted by the cable and DTH operators under the Cable Act.

The state education department has already discussed with Prasar Bharti officials, who, according Kumar, have assured 3+3 hours of timeslots on the education channel Chandana on cost basis.

"We have also made all the necessary arrangements for content creation by the teachers," he said.

Meanwhile, the minister has revealed that television is the best medium for the students as a home learning mode in these challenging times.

"The department of public instruction reviewed various technological options and considered TV as one of the best means for home learning," Kumar said.

In a survey conducted by the education department, it was found out that 95 per cent households had television sets.

Kumar said the state operates government schools in nine languages, including Kannada, English and Urdu.

"To cater to all the students, and considering a long-term strategy to run schools by maintaining social distancing, we are in immediate need of minimum three exclusive channels to teach through TV," he said.

According to Kumar, the Karnataka government is facing hardships to meet the capital expenditure requirements, hence, it is seeking help from the I&B Ministry.

New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

Bengaluru, Mar 4: Seeking to allay fear among the citizens in the wake of Coronavirus scare, Karnataka Health Minister B Sriramulu on Wednesday made an appeal to the people not to pay heed to rumours spreading on social media.

In a series of tweets, Mr Sriramulu assured people that the government has taken adequate measures to ensure that the disease does not spread further. "Don't lend your ears to rumours about the Coronavirus in the social media. Rely only on the authentic information," he tweeted.

The minister's tweet came as Bengaluru reported the first case, after a techie from the city with a travel history to Dubai and interaction with Hong Kong-based people there, was admitted to a hospital in Hyderabad.

As panic gripped the city, Mr Sriramulu said the apartment where the software engineer was staying has been sanitised. Besides, his 25 colleagues have been identified. One of them has been admitted to the hospital as a precautionary measure and his blood sample has been sent for lab test.

"So far 40,207 people have been screened at the International airport. 251 blood tests have been done, of which 238 were found negative, while the rest of the reports are yet to come," Mr Sriramulu tweeted.

The health department said three people have been admitted to the isolation ward at the Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases (RGICD).

Meanwhile, a parent appealed to people not to panic about the Coronavirus in the techie's apartment, where his son too resides. "My son is from the same apartment. To update everyone, there is absolutely nothing wrong here. It was more of panic on social media that created this," he said in a message.

He said that the man who is in Telengana and testedpositive stayed in this building on February 21. "His roommate was taken to hospital and has tested negative," he said. It is been two weeks since the incident. The virus cansurvive only for 48 hours under optimal conditions, he noted. "Everyone in this building is safe. Please educate yourself. Refrain from spreading panic and misinformation." he added.