Rahul Gandhi's two-day UAE visit begins

Washington, Jan 2: The number of people killed in large commercial airplane crashes fell by more than 50% in 2019 despite a high-profile Boeing 737 MAX crash in Ethiopia in March, a Dutch consulting firm said on Wednesday. Aviation consulting firm To70 said there were 86 accidents involving large commercial planes - including eight fatal incidents - resulting in 257 fatalities last year. In 2018, there were 160 accidents, including 13 fatal ones, resulting in 534 deaths, the firm said.

To70 said the fatal accident rate for large airplanes in commercial passenger air transport was just 0.18 fatal accident per million flights in 2019, or an average one fatal accident every 5.58 million flights, a significant improvement over 2018. The fatality numbers include passengers, air crew such as flight attendants and any people on the ground killed in a plane accident

Large passenger airplanes in the study are aircraft used by nearly all travelers on airlines worldwide but excludes small commuter airplanes in service, including the Cessna Caravan and some smaller turboprop airplanes, according to To70.

On Dec. 23, Boeing's board said it had fired Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg after a pair of fatal crashes involving the 737 MAX forced it to announce it was halting output of its best-selling jetliner. The 737 MAX has been grounded since March after an October 2018 crash in Indonesia and the crash of a MAX in Ethiopia in March killed a total of 346 people.

To70 said the aviation industry spent significant effort in 2019 "focusing on so-called 'future threats' such as drones." But the MAX crashes "are a reminder that we need to retain our focus on the basics that make civil aviation so safe: well-designed and well-built aircraft flown by fully informed and well-trained crews."

The Aviation Safety Network said on Wednesday that, despite the MAX crash, 2019 "was one of the safest years ever for commercial aviation." The 157 people killed in March on Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 accounted for more than half of all deaths last year worldwide in passenger airline crashes.

Over the last two decades, aviation deaths around the world have been falling dramatically even as travel has increased. As recently as 2005, there were 1,015 deaths aboard commercial passenger flights worldwide, the Aviation Safety Network said.

Last week, 12 people were killed when a Fokker 100 operated by Kazakh carrier Bek Air crashed near Almaty after takeoff. In May, a Russian Sukhoi Superjet 100 aircraft caught fire as it made an emergency landing at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport, killing 41 people.

The figures do not include accidents involving military flights, training flights, private flights, cargo operations and helicopters.

When it comes to the economy, dark days do loom large over India. May it be growth (lowest since 2008), inflation (highest in the last six years), or revenue collection (lowest in 10 years), the Indian economy is faltering. Hence, there is little leeway that can be assumed in the incumbent Union Budget 2020 (the first of the decade) if the economy needs to be boosted.

While presenting the decade's first Budget for India, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday in Parliament:

Taxation

•             AADHAR based tax verification introduced

•             Review of customs duty exemptions in September 2020

•             GST refund process simplified

•             Electronic invoice implementation in phases

•             New digital scheme for tax litigation

•             PAN to be instantly allotted online against Aadhar

•             Vivaad se Vishwas Scheme: Defaulter to pay only disputed tax and no penalty or interest by 31 March 2020, post which additional amount can be paid till June 2020

•             Measure to promote affordable housing - tax holiday extended for developers

•             Concession on real estate transactions

•             Turnover threshold for audit raised to Rs 5 crore from 1 crore

•             Company audit requirements eased

•             Taxes on ESOPs (employee stock ownership) in start-ups deferred by 5 years

•             100% per cent tax exemption

•             Corporate Tax at 15%

•             Dividend Distribution Tax removed, dividend taxed only for recipients

•             No tax for 0-5 lakh

•             30% above 15 lakh

•             25% for income between Rs 12.5-15 lakh

•             20% for income between Rs 10-12.5 lakh

•             15% for income between Rs 7.5-10 lakh

•             10% for income between Rs 5-7.5 lakh, against the prevailing 20%

•             A new, optional simplified personal income tax regime for those not seeking exemptions

Major steps and initiatives taken by the government in finance

•             3.8 percent fiscal deficit estimated

•             GDP nominal growth expected at 10 per cent

•             Govt to sell part of holding LIC via IPO (initial public offering)- partial LIC disinvestment

•             Partial credit guarantee for NBFCs

•             New law for netting of financial contracts

•             Mechanism to end liquidity crisis

•             NRIs (non resident Indians) can invest in certain govt securities

Aspirational India: Caring society

•             App-based invoice financing loans for MSMEs

•             Amendment to Factoring Regulation Act to aid MSMEs

•             Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDI) Act amendments

•             No criminal liabilities for civil acts

•             Auto-enrolment in universal pension scheme

•             5958 cr allocated for Ladakh

•             30757 cr allocated for J&K

•             Insurance for depositors raised to 5 lakh from 1 lakh

•             Robust mechanisms in place to monitor all PSU banks

•             Depositors’ money safe

•             100 cr for hosting G20 in 2022

•             National Recruitment Agency to be set up

•             Tax payers’ charter to be enshrined in statutes

•             Amendments for Companies Act

•             Tax payer charter proposed to free citizens from tax harassment

•             Businesses should have confidence that system is fair

•             4400 crore allocation for clean air and climate change policy

•             Aim to reduce carbon footprint - Warning to old thermal plants

•             Committed to preserve environment, tackle climate change

•             23150 crore for culture ministry

•             2500 crore for tourism sector

•             Institute of Heritage and Conservation to come up soon

•             Aim to set up more museums

•             5 archaeological sites to be made iconic

•             Proposal to end manual scavenging

•             53700 crore for welfare of STs

•             85000 crore for SCs and OBCs for 2021

•             35600 crore for nutritional schemes

•             Gross enrollment ratio of girls higher than boys in elementary level

•             Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao - tremendous results

Aspirational India: Infrastructure and economic development

•             Further reforms for transparent price discovery for natural gas

•             22000 crore for power sector

•             8000 crore for quantum technology in next 6 years

•             Two national level science schemes

•             Expand Jan Aushadhi Scheme

•             1 lakh gram panchayats to be connected via Bharat Net

•             6000 crore for Bharat Net

•             Data Centre parks to be set up across the country

•             National Gas Grid to be expanded

•             Reforms to help stressed DISCOMS (distribution companies)

•             Delhi-Mumbai Expressway by 2023

•             100 more airports by 2024

•             Plans to energise economic activity along river banks

•             Need to enhance sea ports

•             High Speed Mumbai-Ahmedabad train

•             More Tejas-type trains

•             4 station redevelopment projects under PP model

•             2000 km of strategic highways to be built, 11000 km of track electrification

•             Accelerated development of highways

•             National Logistics Policy to be released soon

•             Big push on infrastructure - 100 lakh crore

•             National Technical Textiles Mission to be set up

•             1480 crore outlay for textile sector

•             27300 crore for industrial development by 2021

•             Digital refund of duties for exporters

•             Boost domestic manufacturing - electronic equipment, mobile phone, medical devices

•             5 new smart cities in collaboration with states

•             Investment clearance cell to be set up for end to end facilitation

•             Entrepreneurship has been the strength of India

Aspirational India: Education and skills

•             High need for medical teachers and paramedics

•             Internships for engineers in panchayats

•             Rs 99300 cr for education sector

•             Large hospitals to be encouraged to start PG courses

•             Attach medical colleges to district hospitals

•             National police university to be set up

•             IND-SAT programme for overseas students for studying in India

•             New courses in 159 universities by 2026

•             Focus on education for jobs

•             Propose a fresh education policy

•             Urban local bodies should give opportunities to new engineers

•             Education needs more finances

Aspirational India: Healthcare

•             AI (artificial intelligence) to be used for Ayushman Bharat Scheme

•             69000 crore for health sector

•             Propose to set up more hospitals

•             Holistic vision for national healthcare

Aspirational India: Agriculture, Irrigation and rural development

•             Need to liberalise farm markets

•             108 million metric tonne milk production by 2021

•             2.83 lakh cr allocation for agriculture and irrigation

•             Propose raising fish production to 200 lakh tonne

•             Zero budget national farming

•             NABARD refinance scheme to be expanded

•             Village credit card scheme

•             Agriculture credit target for 2020 set at Rs 15 lakh crore

•             Village storage scheme for farmers, zero budget natural farming

•             Dhanya Lakshmi scheme for women in villages

•             Krishi Udaan by civil aviation ministry for air transport of such commodities over longer distances

•             Indian railways to set up 'kisan rail'

•             Govt to provide help to geo-tag warehouses

•             Financial inclusion has helped raise farm incomes

•             Plan for 100 water stressed districts

•             Scheme for 20 lakh farmers to set up solar pumps

•             Doubling farm income - model agricultural land leasing act, balanced use of fertilisers, solar pumps for 20 lakh farmers

Budget 2020 and its three focuses

•             Budget's first focus is 'Aspirational India'. Second focus: economic development for all. Third focus: building a caring society.

•             FDI at 284 billion dollars, achieved 7.84% growth

•             GST formalised the economy

•             Efficiency gained in logistics

•             16 lakh new tax payers added

•             Fundamentals of economy hold strong

•             Scaled up implementation of pro-poor schemes

Key challenges FM faces

•             India needs to grow by 9 per cent to 10 per cent a year to become the $5 trillion economy by 2024, as projected by the government. The government is now forecasting growth will come in at 5 per cent

•             The IMF, which had originally predicted 6.1 per cent growth for India in 2019, has revised that downwards to 4.8 per cent

•             The government’s likely to miss its fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal year of 3.3 per cent and hike its target to as much as 4 per cent for the next financial year

•             India will struggle to achieve 5 per cent GDP growth in 2020 - Economist Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University

•             Investment is forecast to grow at less than 1 per cent -- the lowest since 2004-05

•             India's unemployment rate rose to 7.5 per cent during September-December 2019 quarter, according to data released by think-tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy

The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said.