Rains, floods kill 269 in Tamil Nadu, 54 in Andhra

New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

Gurugram, Jul 12: Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday said that the whole world was appreciating India's successful fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Speaking ahead of the mega tree plantation drive of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) at the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Officers' Training Academy in Kadarpur village here, the Home Minister also lauded the contribution of security forces in the battle against COVID-19 in the country.

"India is one of the most populous countries. Everyone thought how will a country like India battle COVID-19, there were apprehensions but today the whole world is witnessing how one of the most successful battles against COVID-19 has been fought here," the Home Minister said.

"In India's battle against COVID-19, all of our security forces are playing a huge role, nobody can deny it. Today, I salute these corona warriors. They have proved that they not only know how to fight terrorism but also against COVID with help of people," he added.

The Union Home Minister said that many jawans have given up their lives during the COVID-19 crisis phase and paid tributes to them.

"I have talked to families of those jawans and today once again I thank them, your sacrifice will not go waste. Whenever the history of the human race's fight against COVID-19 is written, the contribution of India's security forces will be mentioned in golden ink," he said.

He also hailed the plantation drive and said that trees planted today should be taken care of by the jawans till they reach maturity, he added the trees chosen for plantation today consisted mostly those which had a long life and would help the generations to come.

Together the CAPFs have targeted to plant around 10 lakh tree saplings across the country today. Heads of all the CAPFs or their representatives were present in the event held at Gurugram. 

Ujjain, Jul 9: Kanpur encounter main accused Vikas Dubey has been arrested at a police station here on Thursday, as per sources in the Uttar Pradesh government.

"Vikas Dubey, the main accused in Kanpur encounter case, has been arrested at a police station in Ujjain," said UP government sources.

Dubey is the main accused in the encounter that took place in Kanpur last week, in which a group of assailants allegedly opened fire on a police team, which had gone to arrest him.

Eight police personnel were killed in the encounter.

Earlier today, Bahua Dubey and Prabhat Mishra, close aides of the main accused, were killed in separate encounters in Etawah and Kanpur respectively.

Whereas, Shyamu Bajpai, also an aide to Dubey, has been arrested by Chaubeypur police following an encounter. He carried a reward of Rs 25,000. Uttar Pradesh's Special Task Force (STF) had gunned down Vikas Dubey's close aide Amar Dubey in Hamirpur district, earlier on Wednesday.