Rains lash parts of Karnataka, bring smiles and tears

New Delhi, Jun 26: With looming uncertainty and no likelihood of an early economic recovery in sight, the bull run in gold prices is here to stay. Analysts expect domestic futures to touch ₹ 52,000 per 10 grams in the next few months, till Diwali.

Experts also predict that with the current trend, gold may reach historic levels around ₹ 65,000 per 10 grams in two years time.

Futures of the yellow metal have touched new highs in India off late. On Wednesday, the August contract of gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched an all-time high of Rs 48,589 per 10 grams.

It has, however corrected since and is currently trading at ₹ 48,057 on the MCX, higher by ₹ 116 or 0.24 per cent from its previous close.

Market experts are of the view that both domestic and international gold prices are yet not done breaching records and will touch new highs in days to come.

The resurgence in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection across the globe has added to the uncertainty and fears.

Speaking to media persons, Anuj Gupta, DVP for Commodities and Currencies Research at Angel Broking, noted: "In short term we are expecting it to reach ₹ 48,800-49,000 and for long term, we are expecting ₹ 51,000-Rs 52,000 till Diwali."

On the prices in the international market, he said that it may reach around $1,790 per ounce in the near term from the current levels of $1,762 and the long term, it is likely to be around $1,820-1,850 per ounce.

Gupta noted that with International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest downward revision of economic outlook, both global and of India, and the rising number of cases and high demand by gold exchange traded funds (ETF) have led to this record breaking rise in gold prices.

Covid-19 battered India's economy is projected to contract by 4.5 per cent this fiscal, according to the IMF and the global output is projected to decline by 4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the IMF's April forecast.

Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Financial Services, said that gold's safe haven appeal will remain on the higher side as there is little hope of a quick global economic recovery amid rising virus cases across the world.

"Increased geopolitical instability and an under-performing dollar also lift the metal's sentiments," he added.

According to Prathamesh Mallya, AVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currencies at Angel Broking, said that with the global output to contract and the economies in a deeper recession than most anticipate, gold as an asset class is a safe bet for investors across the globe.

"Although, the physical demand has declined drastically due to the restrictions and lockdowns, the activity of global central banks and their net purchases of gold signal that uncertainty will continue for most of 2020," he said.

He was also of the view that in the international market price of the metal may move towards $1,850 per ounce and in the domestic market it is likely to move higher towards Rs 50,000 per 10 grams.

"The investment demand as seen in the net additions of ETF holdings also signals that gold will shine for a much longer time even if the pandemic is under control. Till then, keep buying gold, if not in physical form, but in digital form," Mallya added.

Industry insiders like Aditya Pethe, Director, WHP Jewellers said: "I basically feel that the current trend for the gold is bullish and for the coming next 2 years, it is likely to move upwards. No one can predict the exact price as currently the trend is on rise but it might change after 6 months. In general for the coming 6 months to one year, the gold prices are likely to cross $2,000 which comes to roughly Rs 55,000. For a temporary moment it may reduce, basically fluctuate as well but overall trend of gold is going to be bullish."

On his part, Ishu Datwani, Founder, Anmol Jewellers said: "Yes - it's very likely that the gold price could easily go up to Rs 60,000-Rs 65,000 in the next two years. There is also a possibility of it going up even more."

"A lot of banks have been buying gold and there is also a possibility that the Indian rupee will depreciate against the dollar. This and geopolitical reasons will cause bullishness in gold."

Bengaluru, Jan 8: The second instalment of flood relief funds from the Centre, announced on Monday, has left BS Yediyurappa less than cheerful, with the chief minister insisting that it is barely adequate. The CM on Tuesday said he will urge the Union government to release more.

On Monday, the Centre announced it will release Rs 669.8 crore in addition to the Rs 1,200 crore it had released earlier towards flood relief and rehabilitation. The total sum is a small fraction of the loss, which the government pegged at a staggering Rs 38,000 crore.

“The Centre has released assistance in two instalments so far, but it is inadequate given the magnitude of the damage. I will request for more funds and I am confident the Centre will oblige,” Yediyurappa told reporters.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited the state last week, Yediyurappa had urged him — even openly at a function — to release funds. This followed several pleas over the past four months, which barely drew a response from the Centre. Now, the CM himself suggests it’s barely a drop in the ocean.

The opposition has been criticizing both Yediyurappa and the Centre for their handling of the situation and on Tuesday, leader of the opposition Siddaramaiah of the Congress criticised the CM for “misguiding people” on the sum released by the Centre.

Siddaramaiah tweeted, “Reports from State govt officials say only Rs 669 cr of addl funds are released in 2nd instalment as opposed to the claim of Rs 1,870 cr by Karnataka BJP leaders. At a time when manufacturing industries are closing, BJP’s fake news factory is running at full potential ".

In another tweet, he said, “Moved by the plea of chief minister, Yediyurappa, Prime Minister Narendra Modi released an additional Rs 669.8 crore, taking the total amount to Rs 1,869.8 crore. BJP leaders, who are devotees of the god of lies, attempts to depict the total relief amount as 1200+1869.85 = Rs 3,069 cr is ridiculous.”

A high-level committee chaired by Union home minister Amit Shah had sanctioned the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) funds on Monday. While the Press Information Bureau claimed Rs 1,869 crore was approved on Monday, state government officials clarified that the figure included the Rs 1,200 crore released in October.

Meanwhile, sources say the two instalments is all the assistance the state can expect from the Centre towards flood relief. Sources say the Rs 1,870 crore is roughly 60% of the funding — Rs 3,000 cr— which was supposed to be allocated for Karnataka, based on an inter-ministerial team’s assessment of losses in the state.

“Compared to other states for the same period, Karnataka has received the highest amount in flood relief. We cannot expect more,” said a revenue department official, who said the government will not approach the Centre for a special package.

However, revenue minister R Ashoka said the state will pitch for the entire Rs 3,000 crore. “The state government will pursue the matter with the Centre until it releases the entire Rs 3,000 crore. The state government will cover the remainder of the Rs 38,000 crore loss. We will not go back on our word,” Ashoka said. Incidentally, the state has spent about Rs 6,000 crore on relief and rehabilitation so far.