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The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said. 

Washington, Feb 21: Days ahead of his India visit, US President Donald Trump on Thursday said the two countries could make a "tremendous" trade deal.

"We're going to India, and we may make a tremendous deal there," Trump said in his commencement address at the Hope for Prisoners Graduation Ceremony in Las Vegas.

Trump, accompanied by First Lady Melania Trump, is scheduled to travel to Ahmedabad, Agra and New Delhi on February 24 and 25.

Ahead of the visit, there have been talks about India and the United States agreeing on a trade package as a precursor to a major trade deal.

During his commencement address, Trump indicated that the talks on this might slowdown if he did not get a good deal.

"Maybe we'll slow down. We'll do it after the election. I think that could happen too. So, we'll see what happens," he said.

"But we're only making deals if they're good deals because we're putting America first. Whether people like it or not, we're putting America first," Trump said.

Bilateral India-US trade in goods and services is about three per cent of the US' world trade.

In a recent report, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) said the trading relationship is more consequential for India -- in 2018 the United States was its second largest goods export market (16.0 per cent share) after the European Union (EU, 17.8 per cent), and third largest goods import supplier (6.3 per cent) after China (14.6 per cent) and the EU 28 (10.2 per cent).

"The Trump Administration takes issue with the US trade deficit with India, and has criticised India for a range of 'unfair' trading practices," the CRS said.

"Indian Prime Minister Modi's first term fell short of many observers' expectations, as India did not move forward with anticipated market opening reforms, and instead increased tariffs and trade restrictions," it said.

"Modi's strong electoral mandate may embolden the Indian government to press ahead with its reform agenda with greater vigour. Slowing economic growth in India raises concerns about its business environment," CRS said.

As per a fact sheet issued by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), trade in goods and services between the two countries from 1999 to 2018 surged from $16 billion to $142 billion.

India is now the United States' eighth-largest trading partner in goods and services and is among the world's largest economies.

India's trade with the United States now resembles, in terms of volume, the US' trade with South Korea ($167 billion in 2018) or France ($129 billion), said Alyssa Ayres from CFR.

"The United States for two years now has set out in stone pretty clearly the things that they wanted to see to try to get an agreement, and it's basically then on India's doorstep on whether they want to take those steps," Rick Rossow, Wadhwani Chair in US-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank told reporters during a conference call.

"The list of US asks has been pretty static all throughout. Not to say that any of these things are easy for India to do, but the United States to my knowledge didn't change the goalposts just because we now consider India to be a middle-income country. The things that we wanted to see happen to get this trade agreement have been pretty static all throughout, no matter how difficult they are," he said in response to a question.

Bengaluru, Feb 29: A Lingayat seer on Friday threatened to get 10 BJP MLAs to quit if Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa does not make MLA Dattatreya Patil Revoor a minister soon.

"If Yediyurappa does not make BJP's Gulbarga South MLA Dattatreya Patil Revoor a minister, I will get 10 ruling party legislators resign and reduce the government to a minority, forcing the Chief Minister to resign," said Srishaila Saranga mutt seer Deshikendra Swami at a meeting in Kalaburagi on Friday.

Addressing a gathering of the Lingayat community, to which Revoor belongs, the seer said although he wanted Yediyurappa to complete the remaining 3-year term in office and the BJP to return to power after the next elections, it would be difficult for Yediyurappa to continue if Revoor is not made a minister.

"Yediyurappa will be in office for the next three years if he makes Revoor minister. If not, I will ask him (latter) also to resign, as does not need to be in politics anymore because he has a house, many acres of agricultural land and is very rich," the seer told the gathering in Kannada.

In his nomination to contest in the May 2018 assembly elections, Revoor (37) declared in an affidavit Rs 17-crore assets, including immovable properties.

Wishing Yediyurappa to remain in office for the next three years and return as Chief Minister, the seer said if Yediyurappa is forced to quit, then the Lingayat community would not get an opportunity to have its leader as Chief Minister again for at least 30 years.

Yediyurappa, whose constituency is Shikaripura in Shivamogga district, is considered the tallest Lingayat leader of the politically powerful community, which accounts for 18% of the 6.5-crore state's population.

Though a dozen BJP legislators won from the erstwhile Hyderabad-Karnataka region in the May 2018 Assembly elections, only Prabhu Chauhan from the adjacent Bidar district was made minister for animal husbandry.

The Saranga mutt seer’s threat comes a month after Veerashaiva Lingayat Panchamasali seer Swami Vachananda, dared Yediyurappa to make 3 of the community legislators ministers ahead of the second cabinet expansion on February 6.

At a Lingayat gathering in the state's Davengere district on January 15, Vachananda told Yediyurappa to make party's Bilgi legislator Murgesh Nirani Minister, failing which the community would withdraw its support to the ruling party.

Hiryur is about 300km northwest of the southern state's capital Bengaluru.

Ticking off the young seer, a defiant Yediyurappa, however, threatened to walk out of the meeting if he was blackmailed for making Lingayat MLAs ministers.

"You cannot threaten me saying your sub-sect (Veera Shaiva) community would not support the BJP in the next assembly or Lok Saba elections, due in 2023 and 2024," retorted Yediyurappa, reasserting his status as the community's strongman in the state.

In the second cabinet expansion, only 10 newly elected legislators who defected from the Congress and the Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) were made ministers, leaving 6 posts vacant in the 34-member ministry.

In the first cabinet expansion on August 20, 2019, 17 party legislators were made ministers. Nirani and others, who were present on the dais, pacified Yediyurappa to take his seat and requested the seer to avoid making political speech on such occasions.

"The chief minister threatened to resign than succumb to pressures from religious or community followers," a party official told media.