Rape and murder of girl in temple is a small issue: New J&K Deputy CM

New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

New Delhi, Jun 23: In an unexpected development, the pump price of diesel is all set to surpass the petrol price in the capital, making it the most expensive transport fuel for the first time in a long time.

Globally, diesel is priced slightly above petrol prices due to the very nature of the product that has a higher cost of production. But in India, due to the lopsided taxation structure, diesel attracts lesser of the tax between the two auto fuels keeping its prices lower than petrol for last several years.

Diesel is currently priced at Rs 79.40 a litre in the Capital, just 36 paise short of petrol price that is being retailed at Rs 79.76 a litre. Going by the trend of price movement in the two products for the last few days where diesel prices have consistently increased by 50-60 paise per litre while the daily increase in petrol prices have fallen to just 20 paise on Tuesday, it is set to surpass petrol prices in next few days.

"Diesel price movement is sharper in international market and if oil companies follow the global price trend, diesel prices will surpass that of petrol later this week. It will be after many years that this would happen and is expected to sustain for some time unless government changes the tax structure of the petroleum products again," said an oil sector expert from one of the big four audit and advisory firms asking not to be named.

Interestingly, even in India the base price of diesel is expensive than petrol. According to the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), while the base price of petrol in Delhi currently comes to Rs 22.11 per litre, the same for diesel is higher at Rs 22.93 per litre (effective from June 16, 2020). This has been the case for a long time, but retail price of petrol can be higher than diesel due to central and state taxes.

What has now brought diesel prices to a whisker of petrol prices in the capital is the Delhi government's decision early May to increase the Value Added Tax on diesel from 16.75 per cent to 30 per cent and on petrol from 27 per cent to 30 per cent. This increased the retail price of diesel and petrol in Delhi by Rs 7.10 and Rs 1.67 a litre respectively. With Central taxes on the two products already reaching identical levels, the Delhi governments move hastened price parity between petrol and diesel.

Currently, the Central excise on petrol is Rs 32.98 a litre while that on diesel it is Rs 31.83 a litre. The VAT on petrol in Delhi is Rs 17.71 a litre and that on diesel is Rs 17.60 a litre.

While the movement of retail pricing is being seen with a sigh of relief by vehicle owners whose cars run on petrol, those buying the relatively expensive diesel cars are now repenting on their decision. The development is also being seen with caution by automobile companies who have spent millions to ramp up their facilities for diesel run vehicles. The expectation is that demand for such cars will now fall, causing more damage to companies where sales are already impacted due to persistent economic slowdown and now the spread of COVID-19 pandemic.

"The pricing development would push automobile companies to strategies being followed by companies in the western markets where diesel run cars are not sold on fuel pricing differential, but on overall make and quality that puts them ahead of petrol run cars," the expert quoted earlier.

Yes, but for commercial vehicle sector the rising price of diesel had not been welcomed. In fact, the commercial transport sector had time an again threatened strike against the move to raise fuel prices.

With petrol and diesel retail prices closing, the case for adultering fuel has also gone down much to the relief of vehicle owners.

The Centre on Sunday extended the COVID-19 lockdown for two more weeks till May 31 with more exemptions as the Centre allowed states more powers for profiling its zones, re-starting of inter-state and intra-state bus travel, plying of autos and taxis and opening of all shops, including in markets but barring those in malls.

Here are the answers to all your questions:

What is 'Lockdown 4.0'?

On March 24, 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day nation-wide lockdown to prevent the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. India follows several countries in its measures to curb the pandemic, which was the first lockdown. Prime Minister then extended the coronavirus lockdown till May 3, which was dubbed as 'Lockdown 2.0'. This lockdown was further prolonged till May 17 which became 'Lockdown 3.0' and now, as the government aims at a staggered re-opening of the country while maintaining the norms such as social distancing, the fourth extension till May 31 is called 'Lockdown 4.0'.

Who issues the guidelines for the lockdown?

The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) issues the guidelines for the lockdown.

Are guidelines different during a lockdown compared to normal life?

Well, of course. Guidelines during a lockdown instruct people on all matters from whether you are allowed to leave your house, to whether an MNC is allowed to function and with what percentage of attendance.

Are masks compulsory even now?

Masks are made mandatory in all public places, by the Union Health Ministry. All the states and UTs are to strictly abide by this law. Not wearing masks will attract penalties which are specified by the state.

How would that be determined for an area?

By Lockdown 3.0, all areas of state districts were segregated into containment, red, orange and green zones. In the Lockdown 4.0, states will categorise the areas into red, orange and green zones.

Colourful... but what are red, orange and green zones?

According to the guidelines issued by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, states can categorise districts or municipal corporations as red or orange zones.

"States may, however, also choose to categorise a sub-division or ward or any other appropriate administrative unit as red/orange/green zone after detailed analysis at their end, duly taking into consideration the geographical spread of cases, contacts and their zone of influence in terms of disease spread," the ministry said.

With the commencement of the third phase of lockdown, the Union Health Ministry listed 130 districts across the country in the red zone, 284 in the orange zone and 319 in green zones based on the incidence of cases of COVID-19, doubling rate, the extent of testing and surveillance feedback.

Districts were earlier designated as hotspots/red-zones, orange zones and green zones primarily based on the cumulative cases reported and the doubling rate.

A district will be considered under green zone if there have been no confirmed cases of COVID-19 so far or there is no reported case since last 21 days in the district, according to the letter.

Now, what is a buffer zone?

A buffer zone is an area of spread in a 5-kilometre radius (7 Kms in rural areas) of a containment zone.

How do I find out the zone I am in?

You either look at your state or city's municipal corporation pages to avail the zone details. You can also look at your district magistrate's Twitter handle or Facebook account to find out the list of the zone under which your area falls.

Can I leave my home now?

That depends. If you are in a containment zone or a red zone, you may not be allowed to leave your residence. Otherwise, in the other zones, the state governments and the district magistrates will decide upon the level of movement within and outside the zones.

Can I shift from a red zone to an orange or green zone?

You cannot. The residents of a red or containment zone cannot move out of their zones, nobody may enter the zones as well.

What about my office?

The private offices can operate in non-containment zones. The guidelines for offices to work will be listed by the state governments and the DMs (district magistrates).

Will I be allowed to use my bike/car or any other personal vehicle?

There is a likely chance of you being allowed to take out your bike or car or other vehicles (not helicopters or aeroplanes), if you are not in a containment zone. You need to check the rules listed by your state government or DM. The number of people who can ride at one time will also be decided by the state.

Can my driver, house help or neighbour drive me to my office/destination? Will I be allowed to take them to my workplace?

Yes, provided they are not from a red zone which may be risky for the passenger. This facility is prohibited in a containment zone. Also, check with your workplace regarding the norms to follow within the office. For the details on travelling with others in the car, look into the info provided by your state government, DM and Resident Welfare Association (RWA).

Will be able to fill petrol or diesel for my vehicle?

Definitely, yes. All petrol pumps, LPG and oil agencies will continue to be open.

What if I need to take a cab, auto or book one via Ola/Uber?

The same rules apply to them as well. Unless you are in a containment zone, the restrictions for using cabs and autos will be eased.

What if I need to use public transport like buses?

Some states have allowed buses to run, such as in Tamil Nadu in certain areas. You will have to check with the state government or DM's regulations enlisted for knowing the routes and norms to follow inside a bus.

Can I use my city's Metro line?

Unfortunately, metro lines are not allowed to open and will remain closed until further notification from the Centre.

Can I walk around in my area?

Walking will be permitted under the guidelines issued by the state and DM. Walking in groups will be prohibited and social distancing norms are to be followed in public at all times. Movement is allowed between 7 am to 7 pm in any zone - containment, red, orange or green.

Can I take my grandparents/kids out for a walk?

People older than 65 years of age, or younger than 10, persons with co-morbidities, pregnant women are not allowed to venture out of their residences, as they are highly susceptible to the infection.

Can I go out with my friends?

A group of less than 5 people are allowed to walk together. If you are planning to use vehicles such as bikes, every induvial must have their own as more than one person on atwo-wheeler is not allowed in certain areas. Curfew timings are from 7 am to 7 pm as movent is prohibited beyond these timings. Check the regulations issued by your local DM or state government to know further details.

What if I need to see my friends, relatives or others?

The Resident Welfare Association (RWA) will make a decision about allowing visitors inside a zone, barring containment zones. Nobody is allowed within the containment zone or permitted to leave.

Can we now go to restaurants?

Restaurants are still closed irrespective of the zone. Take-away or delivery services will be available, nevertheless.

Can we go to malls?

Malls and restaurants and shops in the malls will remain closed irrespective of the zone, as these are crowd-pulling zones.

Does that mean multiplexes, theatres and drama/concert halls are closed as well?

Cinema halls, theatres, multiplexes and drama/concert halls will remain closed regardless of which zone they are in, till further instructions are sent by the Centre.

Can I go to the beach or a monument/heritage site?

Since such public places will attract a huge crowd that will be tough to control, beaches, monuments, heritage sites and such public places will be closed.

Can I go to coffee shops?

As coffee shops will fall under the category of restaurants, they will also be closed. Take-away and delivery services can be availed from the shops.

What about essentials?

Grocery shops, milk vendors, newspaper circulation are allowed to stay open. Proper sanitisation must be done from time-to-time to ensure customer and vendors’ safety.

I need to repair my phone. Will stand-alone non-essential services be open?

Such non-essential services are allowed to open in non-containment zones. Refer the state governments and DMs rules for knowing the type of shops and state and districts they are permitted in.

What about in-house repairs or services? Can I call a mechanic to my house?

Yes, provided your RWA has permitted to allow mechanics, workmen and labourers inside in non-containment zones.