RBI leaves rate unchanged,sees more upside risks to inflation

June 7, 2016

Mumbai, Jun 7: RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan today kept the key policy rate unchanged citing higher upside risks to 'inflation trajectory' but said the central bank will remain accommodative provided data are supportive.

raghuramAccordingly, Rajan retained the short-term lending rate at 6.5 and the cash reserve requirement of banks at 4 per cent.

"The inflation surprise in the April reading makes the future trajectory of inflation somewhat more uncertain... rising crude prices and implementation of the seventh pay commission awards being the key risks," Rajan said in the second bimonthly monetary policy for the current fiscal.

Explaining the rationale for keeping the rates unchanged, Rajan said: "Incoming data since the April policy announcement show a sharper-than-anticipated upsurge in inflationary pressures emanating from a number of food items (beyond seasonal effects), as well as a reversal in commodity prices."

Despite citing upside risks to prices, Rajan retained the inflation target at 5 per cent with an upside bias.

He was however quick to list the Met prediction of an above normal monsoons with a reasonable spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, coupled with various supply-side management steps and introduction of the electronic national agriculture market (e-NAM) trading portal, as factors that should help moderate unanticipated flares of food inflation.

"In addition, capacity utilisation indicators suggest that the available headroom in industry could keep output prices subdued even as demand picks up," the RBI Governor said.

Nonetheless, he said, there are upside risks to the price index trajectory such as firming international commodity prices, particularly crude oil and the 7th pay commission awards which will have to be factored into projections as soon as clarity on implementation emerges.

This is in addition to upturn in inflation expectations of households and corporate, and also the stickiness in inflation excluding food and fuel.

"Taking these factors into account, the inflation projections given in the April policy statement are retained, though with an upside bias," Rajan said, adding that considerable uncertainty surrounds these projections.

He also noted that domestic conditions for growth are improving gradually, mainly driven by consumption demand, which is expected to strengthen with a normal monsoon and the implementation of the pay commission award.

There are firm signs of recovery, which though is still uneven, he said but the central bank retained its GDP forecast at 7.6 per cent for the current fiscal year.

On private investment, which has been mission for years now, the RBI said higher public sector capital expenditure, led by roads and railways, should crowd in private investment, offsetting somewhat the subdued appetite for fresh private investment due to financial stress.

"Yet, business confidence will be restrained to an extent on account of unrelenting global factors. On a reassessment of balance of risks, the GVA growth projection for 2016-17 has been retained at 7.6 per cent with risks evenly balanced," Rajan said in the policy statement, which would probably the last policy where interest rate is anchored by RBI Governor.

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Agencies
February 14,2020

Lucknow, Feb 14: Uttar Pradesh doctor Kafeel Khan was on Friday booked under the National Security Act (NSA) over his alleged anti-CAA speech at Aligarh Muslim University on December 12, 2019.

The Uttar Pradesh slapped NSA on Kafeel Khan on Friday even as the doctor waited to be released from jail despite being granted bail on Monday in connection with his alleged inflammatory speech.

SP Crime Dr Arvind said that there were sufficient grounds to book the doctor under NSA.

The suspended pediatrician, Kafeel Khan, was arrested for allegedly delivering a controversial speech during Anti-CAA protests on December 12 at the Aligarh Muslim University or AMU. While he was granted bail on Monday, his family members claimed on Thursday that he was yet to be released.

Dr Kafeel Khan's brother Adeel Ahmed Khan had issued a statement saying that despite being granted bail Mathura jail authorities had not honoured the court's order.

Dr Kafeel Khan was arrested by the UP Special Task Force from Mumbai on January 29 for participating anti-CAA protest at AMU. A case was registered against him at the Civil Lines police station here for promoting enmity between different religions.

After his arrest in Mumbai, Dr Khan was brought to Aligarh, from where he was shifted to the district jail in neighbouring Mathura.

According to police, this was done as a precautionary measure in view of the anti-CAA protests on the AMU campus and at the Eidgah grounds in the old city. Police had said that the Dr Khan's presence in the Aligarh jail could have aggravated the law and order situation in the city.

The doctor was earlier arrested for his alleged role in the death of over 60 children in one week at the BRD Medical College in Gorakhpur in August 2017. Short supply of oxygen at the children's ward was blamed at that time for the deaths.

About two years later, a state government probe cleared Khan of all major charges, prompting him to seek an apology from the Yogi Adityanath government.

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News Network
January 24,2020

New Delhi, Jan 24: Although India's Ujjwala programme encouraged adoption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking among the poor, households availing the scheme have not shifted away from using highly polluting fuels like firewood, a study reveals.

The researchers, including those from the University of British Columbia (UBC) in Canada, found that additional incentives to encourage regular use of cooking gas are necessary for a complete transition to clean cooking fuel among poor rural households.

They noted that about 2.9 billion people across Asia, Africa, and Latin America burn solid fuels like firewood to meet their cooking energy needs.

This has significant negative implications for public health, the environment, and societal development, according to the researchers.

Through the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), India has provided capital cost subsidies to poor women to adopt a clean-burning cooking fuel or LPG.

The researchers explained that within the first 40 months of the scheme, more than 80 million households obtained LPG stoves.

However, the full benefits of LPG adoption depend on near complete replacement of polluting fuels with LPG, according to a research-based policy brief published in the journal Nature Energy.

The scientists said this cannot be assumed solely on the basis of LPG presence in the household.

"Our research shows that Ujjwala was able to attract new consumers rapidly, but those consumers did not start using LPG on a regular basis," Abhishek Kar, a postdoc at Columbia University in the US, told PTI.

The study analysed LPG sales data for over 25,000 consumers, including PMUY beneficiaries, as well as general rural LPG consumers in Koppal district of Karnataka.

The scientists employed data covering all LPG purchases of PMUY beneficiaries through their first year in the programme.

They also assessed the general rural population's purchases during their first five years as consumers to assess the effect of experience on use.

The findings estimate that an average rural family needs to purchase five 14.2 kilogramme-cylinders annually to meet half of their cooking needs.

However, the study said just seven per cent of PMUY beneficiaries in Koppal purchased five or more cylinders annually, suggesting that the beneficiaries seldom use LPG.

The general (nonPMUY) consumers in this region use on average two times more LPG cylinders than PMUY beneficiaries, the researchers noted.

Yet, only 45 per cent of nonPMUY consumers use five or more cylinders per year -- even after several years of experience with LPG, they said.

The team assessed price and seasonal factors affecting LPG use among the general population over a three-year period.

It found that LPG consumers are sensitive to price and seasonality -- LPG cylinder refill rates are lower in the summer when agricultural activity is limited, and cash is scarce.

"There was no scheme incentives to promote use, except general LPG subsidies which is available to all, including the urban middle class," said Kar, who was a Ph.D. scholar at UBC when the research was published.

"If there is no additional income, what cost would a poor family on an already tight budget cut to pay for an extra expense on a regular basis.

"Ujjwala has started the scheme of 5 kg-cylinder in response, but the impact of that on LPG sales is still publicly unknown," he said.

These findings, the researchers noted, suggest the need for additional measures to promote regular LPG use for all rural populations.

Although the finding come from a single district in Southern India, it may also apply to other areas with similar socio-economic conditions, they said.

A more expansive evaluation of PMUY would help design targeted incentives to transform infrequent users to regular users, according to the researchers.

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News Network
March 4,2020

Mar 4: Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Wednesday that he has decided not to participate in any 'Holi Milan' programme as experts have advised reducing mass gatherings to avoid the spread of coronavirus.

"Experts across the world have advised reducing mass gatherings to avoid the spread of COVID19 Novel Coronavirus. Hence this year, I have decided not to participate in any 'Holi Milan' programme," the PM tweeted.

This year, Holi is on March 10.

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