RBI new bad loan rules may improve prospects of loan recovery

The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said. 

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 20:  Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Monday said that the government would revoke the order, which allowed the opening of barbershops and restaurants in the State.

The development comes after the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) objected to the move.
When asked about the letter issued by the MHA terming certain decisions as to the dilution of guidelines, Chief Minister Vijayan said: "There is no confrontation between the State government and the Centre."

"Kerala is following all directions issued by the Centre. Barbershops will not be opened and restaurants will only provide online delivery," he told the reporters, adding that public transport would not be allowed.

"There was a decision to open barbershops but many experts have pointed out against the decision. So the Kerala government is withdrawing the decision," he said.

Earlier, Chief Secretary Tom Jose said that if needed, then the State government will make necessary modifications to the lockdown guidelines in the wake of a communication received from the Central government.

The MHA had objected to the decision of Kerala government to allow services like barbershops, local workshops, restaurants, etc., and had urged the State government to revise its lockdown guidelines.

The Government of India had said that violation to lockdown measures reported posed a serious health hazard to the public and risk the spread of COVID-19.

Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla wrote to all Chief Secretaries and a separate letter had been sent to the Kerala Chief Secretary asking them not to dilute lockdown guidelines in any manner.

In his letter to the Kerala Chief Secretary, Bhalla had stated that the consolidated revised guidelines on the measures to be taken by the Ministries/Departments of the Government of India has been circulated on April 15 for containment of COVID-19.

Kerala Minister Kadakampally Surendran had said that relaxations have been given abiding by the direction issued by the Central government. He had added that the Centre may have asked for an explanation due to some misunderstanding.

India is under a nation-wide lockdown that came into force on March 25 to contain the spread of coronavirus, which has claimed 559 lives in the country. Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the extension of lockdown till May 3.

Mumbai, Feb 9: Given the slow progress on the ongoing Rs 38,000-crore capacity expansion at the four largest metro airports, and also the surging traffic, the snaky queues will continue at least till 2023, warns a report.

The four largest airports -- New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad -- handle more than half of the traffic and are operating at 130 per cent of their installed capacity. These airports are under a record Rs 38,000-crore capex but the capacity will not come up before end-2023, says a Crisil report.

“With the dip in traffic growth largely behind, we expect congestion at the top four airports of New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad, which handle more than half of the load, to continue till about FY23,” says the report.

Already these airports are operating at over 130 percent of installed capacity, and the ongoing healthy traffic growth this operating rate is expected to rise further in the next 12 months.

“Operationalising of capacities in the following two fiscals will bring down utilisation levels albeit still high at over 90 per cent by fiscal 2023 and that is despite an unprecedented Rs 38,000 crore capex being undertaken by the operators of these airports over five fiscals 2020-24,” says the report.

Despite this unprecedented capex that is debt-funded, ratings are likely to be stable given the strong cash flows expected due to healthy traffic growth, low project risks associated with the capex and improving regulatory environment, notes the report.

“Capacity at these four airports will increase a cumulative 65 per cent to 228 million annually (from 138 million now) by fiscal 2023. However, traffic is expected to grow strong at up to 10 per cent per annum over the same period. Since additional capacities will become operational in phases only by fiscal 2023, high passenger growth will add to congestion till then,” warn the report.

High utilisation will ride on pent-up demand (accumulated in 2019 as traffic was impacted with the grounding of Jet Airways) and one-off issues with new aircraft of certain airlines.

Further impetus will also come from improving connectivity to lower-tier cities and reducing fare difference between air and rail. Increasing footfalls at airports provide a leg-up to non-aero streams such as advertising, rentals, food and beverage and parking, which comprise around half of the revenue of airports already.

These are expected to grow strongly at over 10-12 per cent, also supported by higher monetisation avenue coming along with current capex. The other half of revenue (aero revenue) is an entitlement approved by the regulator, providing a pre-determined, fixed return over the asset base and a pass-through of costs.

Aero revenue is also expected to get a bump up during fiscals 2022-24, when a new tariff order for airports is likely. Overall aggregate cash flows are likely to double by fiscal 2024 and provide a healthy cushion against servicing of debt contracted for capex, the report concludes.