Republic Day parade under unprecedented security cover

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, May 12: Stranded for over 50 days due to the lockdown and suspension of passenger train services, many people in the national capital will finally be able to reach their destinations in different parts of the country after the railways resumed services on Tuesday.

Three special AC trains will leave the New Delhi railway station for Dibrugarh, Bengaluru and Bilaspur.

The train to Dibrugarh in Assam will leave at 4.45 p.m, while the one leaving for Bilaspur in Chhattisgarh and Bengaluru in Karnataka will leave the New Delhi station at 5.30 p.m and 9.15 p.m respectively.

Entry to the station has been facilitated from the Paharganj side for all confirmed ticket holders. No entry for passengers holding such tickets will be permitted from the Ajmeri Gate side, the railways said.

Railway authorities have put barricades outside the station premises and only those with confirmed tickets are being allowed to enter.

All passengers are undergoing thermal screening before entering the station premises. For this purpose, they have also been asked to reach the station 90 minutes prior to the departure of the train.

A senior Railway Police Force officer said every passenger is being subjected to thermal screening. Hand sanitiser machines have also been placed at the entrance and the passengers are being advised to sanitise their hands before entering the station premises.

Syed Yasir, a private retail sector executive, said due to the resumption of services he will now be able to go to Nagpur to be with his family on Eid. 

Surendra, an engineer with a PSU, was on an assignment in Agra when the lockdown was announced. After the Railways decided to resume passenger train services, he came to Delhi in a private vehicle to board the train to Bengaluru.

"I was on an assignment in Agra where I was stuck. I have come from Agra in a private vehicle and now going to board the train to Bengaluru," Surendra, who identified himself with his first name, said.

Five more trains bound for Delhi will leave from Patna, Bengaluru, Howrah, Mumbai and Ahmedabad, the railways said.

Jun 19: Ten Indian Army soldiers including four officers were released by the China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Friday capping three days of hard negotiations that followed the bloody battle at the eastern Ladakh’s Galwan valley on Monday.

The 10 jawans returned around 5.30 PM on Friday to Patrol Point 14 (PP-14) after Indian team leader Major Gen. Abhijit Bapat, the commanding officer of the Third Div made it clear to the Chinese that there couldn’t be any progress in the disengagement talks unless the soldiers were returned safely.

Asked to comment on the release of Indian soldiers, the Indian Army maintained silence. The force released a brief statement on Thursday stating that all its men were accounted for.

However, the extent of the brutal clash can be gauged from the fact that 76 Indian Army soldiers are still in the hospital out of which 58 soldiers have “minor injuries” and “should be back on duty within a week”, according to Army sources.

Return of the Indian soldiers has been the main point of negotiations for the last two days. The situation is now calmer at areas near PP-14 in the Galwan valley after the return of Indian soldiers even though large numbers of troops from both sides are still present in the area.

Meanwhile analysis of satellite images has revealed a large presence of Chinese troops in the northern banks of Pangong Tso, a disputed territory for years.

“In the past month, Chinese forces have become an overwhelming majority in the disputed areas (on the north bank of the 135 km long lake). Significant positions have been constructed between Fingers 4 and 5, including around 500 structures, fortified trenches and a new boat shed over 20 km further forward than previously. More structures appear to be under construction,” says a report published in the Strategist, the journal of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“The scale and provocative nature of these new Chinese outposts is hard to overstate: 53 different forward positions have been built, including 19 that sit exactly on the ridge line separating Indian and Chinese patrols,” says the report, accompanied by satellite images showing overwhelming PLA presence.

The June 6 Corps Commander level meeting between the Indian and PLA armies did not result in a solution to the contentious muscle flexing by the Chinese on the shores of the Pangong lake. The meeting ended with the conclusion that more Lt Gen level talks between the two armies were needed to resolve such issues.