Rupee may touch 76 levels against dollar in next 3 months: UBS

Agencies
November 4, 2018

New Delhi, Nov 4: With global crude prices remaining elevated, the rupee is likely to be under pressure, and may touch the 76 levels against the US currency over the next three months, says a report. The domestic currency has already crossed the 74 mark owing to continued strengthening of the dollar, lack of foreign flows and higher crude oil prices. The unit lost over 15 percent since the beginning of the calendar year.

“Assuming global crude prices stay elevated (slightly above USD80/a barrel), we retain our bearish view on the rupee and see it plumbing to 76 over the next three months,” says a weekend report by the Swiss brokerage UBS. From April to the first week of August 2018, the RBI has been intervening in the forex markets to contain volatility, which lead to a massive drop in the forex reserves that plunged by USD 25 billion to USD 393 billion last week.

This has led to two successive repo rate hikes to the tune of 50 basis points in total. By keeping policy rates on hold in October, the RBI hinted that it will not use interest rate defence as a tool to manage currency weakness, the report said. Between April and October, the forex reserves has come down by USD 32.78 billion, while foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 392.078 billion as on October 26. “Unlike in 2013, even as the rupee has weakened by 15 per cent calendar year-to-date against the dollar, it remains outside that group of most vulnerable currencies and the countrys forex reserves position is still reasonable,” UBS analyst Gautam Chhaochharia said in the report.

He said while the country remains vulnerable in its external position, there is no need to press the panic button for NRI bond issuances, to stabilise the rupee, yet unless it becomes a political issue in the run-up to the 2019 general elections. “However, in case external stress continues to rise from here (Brent continue to rise towards USD 100/a barrel and/or the rupee weakens towards the 80 levels, the option of raising dollar deposits (USD 30-35 billion) could be explored to stabilise the rupee,” Chhaochharia said.

The report said the loose monetary and fiscal policy pursued by the policymakers five years ago led to exacerbated macroeconomic imbalances when the US Fed announced the start of tapering. This caused the rupee to be amongst the “fragile five” currencies. It believes that the macro fundamentals compare favourably with those in 2013 as policy buffers have been created.

“The inflationary pressures are manageable thanks to lower food prices, and the government remains committed to fiscal discipline although the deficit targets are quite stretched, and even as we expect the CAD to widen to 2.7 per cent of GDP in FY19, it is well below the 4.8 per cent peak registered in FY13,” the report said, adding the RBI’s policy tilt is no longer accommodative. The report further says the current liquidity shortage triggered bydefault by IL&FS and group companies on their debt obligation is a liquidity squeeze and not systematic risk. “We expect the RBI to neutralise the liquidity squeeze but think that an `easy money’ period is not coming back in a hurry,” it added.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
Agencies
January 11,2020

New Delhi, Jan 11: The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear the curative petition of two death row convicts in 2012 Nirbhaya gang-rape case on January 14.

A five-judge Bench of Justices N V Ramana, Arun Mishra, R F Nariman, R Banumathi and Ashok Bhushan will hear the petition filed by Vinay Sharma and Mukesh.

The duo had moved a curative petition in the top court after a Delhi court issued a death warrant in their name and announced January 22 as the date of their execution.

Besides them, two other convicts named Pawan and Akshay are also slated to be executed on the same day at 7 am in Delhi's Tihar Jail premises.

They were convicted and sentenced to death for raping a 23-year-old woman on a moving bus in the national capital on the night of December 16, 2012.

The victim, who was later given the name Nirbhaya, died at a hospital in Singapore where she had been airlifted for medical treatment.

A curative petition is the last judicial resort available for redressal of grievances. It is decided by the judges in-chamber.

If it is rejected, they are legally bound to move a mercy petition. It is filed before the President who has the power to commute it to life imprisonment.

The court after issuing a black warrant in their name gave them two weeks' time to file both the curative and mercy petition.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
Agencies
June 14,2020

Kashmir, Jun 14: An Army personnel was killed and two others were injured as Pakistani troops opened fire and shelled areas along the Line of Control in Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir, officials said on Sunday.

This is the third fatality in the Pakistani firing and shelling on forward posts and villages in the twin districts of Poonch and Rajouri this month.

The officials said the latest firing and shelling from across the border took place in Shahpur-Kerni sector on Saturday night, drawing strong retaliation by the Indian Army.

Three Indian Army personnel were injured in the Pakistani firing and were immediately evacuated to hospital, where one of them succumbed to injuries, the officials said.

They said the casualties suffered by the Pakistani Army in the retaliatory action were not known immediately.

On June 4, havaldar P Mathiazhagan fell to Pakistani firing in Sunderbani sector of Rajouri district, while on June 10, Naik Gurcharan Singh lost his life in a similar incident in Rajouri sector.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
July 10,2020

London, Jul 10: India's Reliance will load its first cargo of Venezuelan crude in three months this week in exchange for diesel under a swap deal the parties say is permitted under the US sanctions regime on the Latin American country, according to a Reliance source and a shipping document from state oil firm PDVSA.

Washington has exempted some Venezuelan oil trade from sanctions when transactions are in exchange for fuel and food or to repay debts rather than for cash. But that trade slowed as the US tightened restrictions and refiners, shippers and insurers have been steering clear of Venezuela to avoid any risk they may fall foul of sanctions.

Washington aims to deprive Venezuelan socialist President Nicolas Maduro of his main source of revenue with the sanctions, which have driven Venezuelan oil exports to their lowest level since the 1940s.

Reliance gave the US State Department and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) notice of the diesel swap and received word back that the policies that allowed the transaction were still in place, the Reliance source told Reuters.

Reliance has previously said that its supplies of fuel to PDVSA in exchange for crude were permitted under sanctions.

An oil tanker named Commodore would load the cargo of crude in Venezuela and ship it to India, the tanker's manager NGM Energy said.

"All details of the transaction and transportation were shared with US authorities, who confirmed that the U.S. policy authorizing such transactions remained in place," NGM Energy said in a statement to Reuters.

"The shipment is made in connection with the humanitarian exchange of oil for diesel fuel."

The Commodore is loading a 1.9-million barrel cargo of crude for Reliance at Venezuela's main oil port of Jose, according to an internal PDVSA cargo schedule seen by Reuters.

The Liberian-flagged Commodore was at the Jose Terminal on Thursday, ship tracking data on Refinitiv Eikon showed.

The US State Department, Treasury's enforcement arm OFAC, and PDVSA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Reliance has a swap deal to provide diesel to Venezuela in exchange for fuel but has not received a cargo of crude since April. Sources at Indian refiners told Reuters earlier this year they planned to wind down their purchases of Venezuelan oil to avoid any problems with supply due to sanctions.

Other long-time customers of PDVSA, including Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol, have continued taking cargoes of Venezuelan crude this year under permission granted by the US Treasury Department to exchange the oil for diesel supply as part of debt repayment deals, according to sources from the companies.

NGM Energy also manages the Voyager I tanker, which the United States removed from its list of sanctioned vessels last week after NGM and the ship's owner Sanibel Shiptrade said they would increase measures to ensure vessels complied with international sanctions.

"Last month, NGM Energy SA adopted a firm policy of not allowing vessels under its commercial management to trade to Venezuela, or to carry Venezuelan petroleum cargoes, absent US government authorization," NGM said.

"NGM continues to stand by that pledge."

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.