Rupee may touch 76 levels against dollar in next 3 months: UBS

Agencies
November 4, 2018

New Delhi, Nov 4: With global crude prices remaining elevated, the rupee is likely to be under pressure, and may touch the 76 levels against the US currency over the next three months, says a report. The domestic currency has already crossed the 74 mark owing to continued strengthening of the dollar, lack of foreign flows and higher crude oil prices. The unit lost over 15 percent since the beginning of the calendar year.

“Assuming global crude prices stay elevated (slightly above USD80/a barrel), we retain our bearish view on the rupee and see it plumbing to 76 over the next three months,” says a weekend report by the Swiss brokerage UBS. From April to the first week of August 2018, the RBI has been intervening in the forex markets to contain volatility, which lead to a massive drop in the forex reserves that plunged by USD 25 billion to USD 393 billion last week.

This has led to two successive repo rate hikes to the tune of 50 basis points in total. By keeping policy rates on hold in October, the RBI hinted that it will not use interest rate defence as a tool to manage currency weakness, the report said. Between April and October, the forex reserves has come down by USD 32.78 billion, while foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 392.078 billion as on October 26. “Unlike in 2013, even as the rupee has weakened by 15 per cent calendar year-to-date against the dollar, it remains outside that group of most vulnerable currencies and the countrys forex reserves position is still reasonable,” UBS analyst Gautam Chhaochharia said in the report.

He said while the country remains vulnerable in its external position, there is no need to press the panic button for NRI bond issuances, to stabilise the rupee, yet unless it becomes a political issue in the run-up to the 2019 general elections. “However, in case external stress continues to rise from here (Brent continue to rise towards USD 100/a barrel and/or the rupee weakens towards the 80 levels, the option of raising dollar deposits (USD 30-35 billion) could be explored to stabilise the rupee,” Chhaochharia said.

The report said the loose monetary and fiscal policy pursued by the policymakers five years ago led to exacerbated macroeconomic imbalances when the US Fed announced the start of tapering. This caused the rupee to be amongst the “fragile five” currencies. It believes that the macro fundamentals compare favourably with those in 2013 as policy buffers have been created.

“The inflationary pressures are manageable thanks to lower food prices, and the government remains committed to fiscal discipline although the deficit targets are quite stretched, and even as we expect the CAD to widen to 2.7 per cent of GDP in FY19, it is well below the 4.8 per cent peak registered in FY13,” the report said, adding the RBI’s policy tilt is no longer accommodative. The report further says the current liquidity shortage triggered bydefault by IL&FS and group companies on their debt obligation is a liquidity squeeze and not systematic risk. “We expect the RBI to neutralise the liquidity squeeze but think that an `easy money’ period is not coming back in a hurry,” it added.

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News Network
March 16,2020

Mar 16: A fourth batch of 53 Indians returned to India from Iran on Monday, taking the total number of people evacuated from the coronavirus-hit country to 389.

This comes a day after over 230 Indians were brought back from Iran to New Delhi and quarantined at the Indian Army Wellness Centre in Jaisalmer, the third batch to be evacuated from that country.

"Fourth batch of 53 Indians - 52 students and a teacher - has arrived from Tehran and Shiraz, Iran. With this, a total of 389 Indians have returned to India from Iran. Thank the efforts of the team @India_in_Iran and Iranian authorities," Jaishankar tweeted.

The Indians came in a Mahan Air flight that landed at the Delhi airport at around 3 am, officials said, adding that they were later taken to Jaisalmer in an Air India flight for being quarantined.

The first batch of 58 Indian pilgrims were brought back from Iran last Tuesday and the second group of 44 Indian pilgrim arrived from there on Friday.

Iran is one of the worst-affected countries by the coronavirus outbreak and the government has been working to bring back Indians stranded there. Over 700 people have died from the disease in Iran and nearly 14,000 cases have been detected.

Jaishankar had told Rajya Sabha last week that the government was focusing on evacuating Indians stranded in Iran and Italy as these countries are facing an "extreme situation".

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Agencies
April 23,2020

More and more Indians have become better prepared in the last one month, as far as stocking of their ration, medicine or money is concerned, according to the IANS-CVoter COVID-19 Tracker.

With the second leg of the lockdown half way through and Prime Minister Narendra Modi saying it's a long haul, 57.2% respondents said they have less than three weeks of stock while 43.3% said they have a stock that will last beyond that

However, if one breaks into weeks, most respondents said they are prepared for a week's time. 24.5% respondents said they have ration, medicine or money to last a week. This is closely followed by 21.9 % respondents saying they are ready for a month.

Meanwhile, 20.4 % said they are ready for a couple of weeks. There are 15.8 % who said they are ready for more than a month with food, ration and medicine. A tiny 5.6 % said they are ready with three weeks of stock.

However, there is 12.3% who still seem to live on the edge with less than a week's preparation.

But, the biggest takeaway from the IANS-CVoter COVID-19 Tracker is that in the last one month, a massive segment of society realised that the fight is long and the preparation should also be to last that long.

o put things into context, on March 16 when the tracker started, a whopping 77.1% said they have stock to last for less than a week. More than a month later on April 21, that number jumped to just 12.3%, which essentially means, people have become better prepared for a long-hauled lockdown period.

Similarly, on April 21, a sizable 21.9% respondents claimed they are ready with ration and medicine that will last them a month. On March 16, not even one respondent could claim they have a month's stock. In fact till March 22, just ahead of the announcement of the first lockdown, no respondent the IANS-CVoter tracker said that they have a month's preparation.

Similarly, when the tracker started, 9.9% said they simply ‘don't know'. As on April 21, that number is a big zero.

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News Network
January 7,2020

Jan 7: A Delhi Court today issued death warrant against four convicts in the 2012 Nirbhaya gang-rape and murder case. The hanging will take place on January 22 at 7 am.

During the hearing, the prosecution said there was no application pending before any court or the President right now by any of the convicts and the review petition of all the convicts was dismissed by the Supreme Court.

On Monday, the court had reserved order on issuing of death warrants against four death row convicts.

Today's order comes days after mother of the victim in the 2012 Delhi gang-rape and murder case moved the Supreme Court on opposing the plea filed by one of the four death-row convicts seeking review of its 2017 judgement awarding him death penalty.

The apex court had on July 9 last year dismissed the review pleas filed by the other three convicts — Mukesh (30), Pawan Gupta (23) and Vinay Sharma (24) — in the case, saying no grounds have been made out by them for review of the 2017 verdict.

The 23-year-old girl was gangraped and murdered by six men on a moving bus on 16 December 2012. The main accused, Ram Singh, allegedly committed suicide in Tihar Jail during the trial. Another accused was a minor at the time of the commission of the crime and was sent to a reform facility and released after three years.

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