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The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said. 

New Delhi, May 17: Spelling out the government’s fourth tranche of initiatives towards achieving Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced significant structural reforms in eight sectors of the economy — coal, minerals, defense production, aviation, power distribution in Union territories, space and atomic energy.

Addressing her fourth and the second-last press conference, Sitharaman said crucial sectors such as coal production and exploration, defence production and space would see an increased participation from private entities.

Coal sector:

In the realm of coal exploration, the government has decided to liberalise the entry norms for private entities, which would mean that any interested party could bid for a coal block and sell it in the open market. The minister said that the government would do away with all the eligibility conditions at the time of bidding for a coal block, except requiring an “upfront payment with a ceiling.”

Nearly 50 coal blocks would be offered to private players immediately, revealed Sitharaman.

She further said that Rs 50,000 crore would be spent by Centre in creating ‘coal evacuation’ infrastructure, which would expedite the transport of mined product to the destination.

Defence sector:

In defence production, Sitharaman revealed that the government would raise the foreign direct investment (FDI) limit in the sector from current 49 per cent to 74 per cent. Further, the government would also work towards corporatising the ordnance factory boards. “Corporatising doesn’t amount to privatization,” added Sitharaman.

In a bid to boost indigenous production of defence products and gave an impetus to Make in India, Sitharaman said that the government was in a process of notifying a list of weapons/platforms for an import ban with year-wise timelines.

These decisions would also help in reducing huge import bills, the finance minister said.

Privatisation of electricity:

In another announcement that could have an effect on electricity charges in the union territories, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced on Saturday that power departments and utilities in all the centrally administered territories would be privatised.

Sitharaman said that the proposed move would lead to better service to consumers and improvement in operational and financial efficiency in distribution.

The finance minister said that decision was guided by 'sub-optimal' utilisation of performance of power distribution and supply'.

She said that the move to that effect would provide a model for emulation by other utilities across the country, in what could be an indicator of what's in the pipeline for utilities in other states as well.

Sitharaman said that the privation reform was in line with the tariff policy reforms and would help in enhancing consumer rights, promote industry and improve the overall sustainability of the sector.

Space sector:

Sitharaman also announced the opening up of the space exploration sector for private players. Till date, the government-run Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has held a monopoly on all activities concerning space exploration and satellite launches.

The Indian private sector will be a co-traveller in India's space sector journey, said Sitharaman, while announcing a series of structural reforms in eight crucial areas of the economy. The Union Finance Minister was addressing her fourth press conference in as many days, as a follow-up towards realising Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of 'atmanirbhar Bharat', which was spelled out in his video address on May 12.

Sitharaman said that the reforms in the space sector will provide a level-playing field for private companies in satellite launches and space-based services.

She said that the private sector would be allowed to use ISRO facilities and other assets to improve their capacities. Stating that the government would provide predictable policy and regulatory environment to private players, Sitharaman also disclosed that future projects for planetary exploration and outer space travel among others would be opened up for private entities.

New Delhi, Jan 31: Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian on Friday said India's GDP is expected to grow at 6-6.5 per cent next fiscal as the economic slowdown has bottomed out.

As per the first advance estimates released by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), the country's economic growth is likely to hit an 11-year low of 5 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2020.

The Economic Survey 2019-20, prepared by a team lead by Subramanian, has projected the GDP to expand in the range of 6-6.5 per cent during 2020-21.

The Indian economy has hit the bottom and it will see an uptick from here, he said in a media briefing post the Economic Survey.

Amidst a weak environment for global manufacturing, trade and demand, the Indian economy slowed down with GDP growth moderating to 4.8 per cent in the first half of 2019-20, lower than 6.2 per cent in H2 of 2018-19.

Based on NSO's first advance estimates of GDP growth for 2019-20 at 5 per cent, an uptick in GDP growth is expected in the second half of the fiscal, it said.

According to it, the uptick in second half of 2019-20 would be mainly due to ten positive factors like picking up of Nifty India Consumption Index for the first time this year, an upbeat secondary market, higher FDI flows, build-up of demand pressure, positive outlook for rural consumption, rebound of industrial activity, steady improvement in manufacturing, growth in merchandise exports, higher build-up of foreign exchange reserves and positive growth rate of GST revenue collection.

The survey also emphasised that merger of public sector banks may increase the financial strength of the merged entities, lower the risk aversion and result in lowering of lending rates.

Further, as the implementation of GST further settles down, the increased unification of the domestic market may reduce business costs and facilitate fresh investment.

Reforms in land and labour market may further reduce business costs, said the survey, presented a day before Sitharaman's Union Budget 2020-21.