Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defence intercepts Houthi drone

Riyadh, Jul 1: Saudis braced Wednesday for a tripling in value added tax, another unpopular austerity measure after the twin shocks of coronavirus and an oil price slump triggered the kingdom's worst economic decline in decades.

Retailers in the country reported a sharp uptick in sales this week of everything from gold and electronics to cars and building materials, as shoppers sought to stock up before VAT is raised to 15 percent.

The hike could stir public resentment as it weighs on household incomes, pushing up inflation and depressing consumer spending as the kingdom emerges from a three-month coronavirus lockdown.

"Cuts, cuts, cuts everywhere," a Saudi teacher in Riyadh told AFP, bemoaning vanishing subsidies as salaries remain stagnant.

"Air conditioner, television, electronic items," he said, rattling off a list of items he bought last week ahead of the VAT hike.

"I can't afford these things from Wednesday."

With its vast oil wealth funding the Arab world's biggest economy, the kingdom had for decades been able to fund massive spending with no taxes at all.

It only introduced VAT in 2018, as part of a push to reduce its dependence on crude revenues.

Then, seeking to shore up state finances battered by sliding oil prices and the coronavirus crisis, it announced in May that it would triple VAT and halt a cost-of-living monthly allowance to citizens.

The austerity push underscores how Saudi Arabia's once-lavish spending is becoming a thing of the past, with the erosion of the welfare system leaving a mostly young population to cope with reduced incomes and a lifestyle downgrade.

That could pile strain on a decades-old social contract whereby citizens were given generous subsidies and handouts in exchange for loyalty to the absolute monarchy.

The rising cost of living may prompt many to ask why state funds are being lavished on multi-billion-dollar projects and overseas assets, including the proposed purchase of English football club Newcastle United.

Shopping malls in the kingdom have drawn large crowds in recent days as retailers offered "pre-VAT sales" and discounts before the hike kicks in.

A gold shop in Riyadh told AFP it saw a 70 percent jump in sales in recent weeks, while a car dealership saw them tick up by 15 percent.

Once the new rate is in place, businesses are predicting depressed sales of everything from cars to cosmetics and home appliances.

Capital Economics forecast inflation will jump up to six percent year-on-year in July, from 1.1 percent in May, as a result.

"The government ended the country's lockdown (in June) and there are signs that economic activity has started to recover," Capital Economics said in a report.

"Nonetheless, we expect the recovery to be slow-going as fiscal austerity measures bite."

The kingdom also risks losing its edge against other Gulf states, including its principal ally the United Arab Emirates, which introduced VAT at the same time but has so far refrained from raising it beyond five percent.

"Saudi Arabia is taking massive risks with contractionary fiscal policies," said Tarek Fadlallah, chief executive officer of the Middle East unit of Nomura Asset Management.

But the kingdom has few choices as oil revenue declines.

Its finances have taken another blow as authorities massively scaled back this year's hajj pilgrimage, from 2.5 million pilgrims last year to around a thousand already inside the country, and suspended the lesser umrah because of coronavirus.

Together the rites rake in some $12 billion annually.

The International Monetary Fund warned the kingdom's GDP will shrink by 6.8 percent this year -- its worst performance since the 1980s oil glut.

The austerity drive would boost state coffers by 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), according to state media.

But the measures are unlikely to plug the kingdom's huge budget deficit.

The Saudi Jadwa Investment group forecasts the shortfall will rise to a record $112 billion this year.

Jeddah, Jul 8: The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) writes to the members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), urging the body to come in the way of a plan announced by Israel for annexation of significant portions of the occupied West Bank.

The letter was addressed by the 57-member organization’s Secretary-General Yousef al-Othaimeen to the UNSC’s members as well as the members of the Middle East Quartet — the European Union, Russia, United Nations, and United States— the Arabic-language Rai al-Youm news website reported on Tuesday.

The letter urged the Council to adopt “the necessary measures” that would prevent the annexation and compel Israel to stop all its illegal activities.

The OIC also urged the UNSC to hold an emergency meeting to “salvage the [remaining] opportunities for peace, and revive attempts at reinstatement of the political process under international supervision.” Such meeting, it added, had to enable realization of “the two-state solution, and [creation of] a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem [al-Quds] as its capital.”

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the plan to annex 30 percent of the occupied Palestinian territory — namely the areas upon which the regime has built its illegal settlements as well as the Jordan Valley — after US President Donald Trump backed the annexation in January.

Trump pledged the support while unveiling details of his Middle East scheme called the “deal of the century.”

The highly controversial scheme allegedly seeks to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but is heavily tilted in favor of the occupying regime. As well as backing the annexation, the scheme re-endorses Washington’s incendiary recognition in late 2017 of al-Quds as “Israel’s capital,” although Palestinians want the occupied holy city’s eastern part to serve as the capital of their future state.

Palestinians have roundly rejected either the American design or the Israeli plan that is rooted in it.

Tel Aviv had previously announced July 1 as the date it sought to start implementing the annexation plan. It, however, is yet to get it off the ground amid far-and-wide international condemnation and speculation that the plan was announced in the first place to deflect attention from a massive corruption scandal involving Netanyahu.

Countries warn Israel of consequences to bilateral ties

Also on Tuesday, Egypt, France, Germany, and Jordan warned Israel against going ahead with the plan, saying that doing so could have consequences for their bilateral relations with the Tel Aviv regime.

In a statement distributed by the German Foreign Ministry, the countries said their foreign ministers had discussed how to restart talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Most other European countries have likewise communicated their objection to the plan.

“We concur that any annexation of Palestinian territories occupied in 1967 would be a violation of international law and imperil the foundations of the peace process,” the European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers said, referring to the year, when Israel occupied the West Bank.

“We would not recognize any changes to the 1967 borders that are not agreed by both parties in the conflict,” they added. “It could also have consequences for the relationship with Israel.”

Israel had no immediate response. In a separate statement, however, Netanyahu’s office communicated Tel Aviv’s intransigence on the matter.

The statement said the Israeli premier had told his British counterpart Boris Johnson on Monday that he was committed to Trump’s “realistic” plan.

“Israel is prepared to conduct negotiations on the basis of President Trump’s peace plan, which is both creative and realistic, and will not return to the failed formulas of the past,” the statement alleged.