This Saudi citizen hosts Iftar with Malayali food throughout Ramadan

Beirut, Apr 5: The novel coronavirus has put global trade on hold, placed half of the world population in confinement and has the potential to topple governments and reshape diplomatic relations.

The United Nations has appealed for ceasefires in all the major conflicts rocking the planet, with its chief Antonio Guterres on Friday warning "the worst is yet to come". But it remains unclear what the pandemic's impact will be on the multiple wars roiling the Middle East.

Here is an overview of the impact so far on the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq:

The COVID-19 outbreak turned into a pandemic just as a ceasefire reached by the two main foreign power brokers in Syria's nine-year-old war -- Russia and Turkey -- was taking effect.

The three million people living in the ceasefire zone, in the country's northwestern region of Idlib, had little hope the deal would hold.

Yet fears the coronavirus could spread like wildfire across the devastated country appear to have given the truce an extended lease of life.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the month of March saw the lowest civilian death toll since the conflict started in 2011, with 103 deaths.

The ability of the multiple administrations in Syria -- the Damascus government, the autonomous Kurdish administration in the northeast and the jihadist-led alliance that runs Idlib -- to manage the coronavirus threat is key to their credibility.

"This epidemic is a way for Damascus to show that the Syrian state is efficient and all territories should be returned under its governance," analyst Fabrice Balanche said.

However the pandemic and the global mobilisation it requires could precipitate the departure of US-led troops from Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

This in turn could create a vacuum in which the Islamic State jihadist group, still reeling from the demise of its "caliphate" a year ago, could seek to step up its attacks.

The Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels initially responded positively to the UN appeal for a ceasefire, as did neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which leads a military coalition in support of the government.

That rare glimmer of hope in the five-year-old conflict was short-lived however and last week Saudi air defences intercepted ballistic missiles over Riyadh and a border city fired by the Iran-backed rebels.

The Saudi-led coalition retaliated by striking Huthi targets in the rebel-held capital Sanaa on Monday.

Talks have repeatedly faltered but the UN envoy Martin Griffiths is holding daily consultations in a bid to clinch a nationwide ceasefire.

More flare-ups in Yemen could compound a humanitarian crisis often described as the worst in the world and invite a coronavirus outbreak of catastrophic proportions.

In a country where the health infrastructure has collapsed, where water is a rare commodity and where 24 million people require humanitarian assistance, the population fears being wiped out if a ceasefire doesn't allow for adequate aid.

"People will end up dying on the streets, bodies will be rotting in the open," said Mohammed Omar, a taxi driver in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida.

Much like Yemen, the main protagonists in the Libyan conflict initially welcomed the UN ceasefire call but swiftly resumed hostilities.

Fierce fighting has rocked the south of the capital Tripoli in recent days, suggesting the risk of a major coronavirus outbreak is not enough to make guns fall silent.

Turkey has recently played a key role in the conflict, throwing its weight behind the UN-recognised Government of National Accord.

Fabrice Balanche predicted that accelerated Western disengagement from Middle East conflicts could limit Turkish support to the GNA.

That could eventually favour forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar, who launched an assault on Tripoli one year ago and has the backing of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Western countries have been hit hardest by the pandemic, which could prompt them to divert both military resources and peace-brokering capacity from foreign conflicts.

A report by the International Crisis Group said European officials had reported that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya were no longer receiving high-level attention due to the pandemic.

Iraq is no longer gripped by fully-fledged conflict but it remains vulnerable to an IS resurgence in some regions and its two main foreign backers are at each other's throats.

Iran and the United States are two of the countries most affected by the coronavirus but there has been no sign of any let-up in their battle for influence that has largely played out on Iraqi soil.

With most non-US troops in the coalition now gone and some bases evacuated, American personnel are now regrouped in a handful of locations in Iraq.

Washington has deployed Patriot air defence missiles, prompting fears of a fresh escalation with Tehran, whose proxies it blames for a spate of rocket attacks on bases housing US troops.

Apr 10: The UAE reported 331 new coronavirus cases - through extensive testing - and two deaths late Thursday night.

The UAE conducted over 40,000 coronavirus tests over the past two days across various segments of society, including citizens and residents, using latest state-of-the-art-technology in line with the Ministry of Health and Prevention's plans to intensify Covid-19 screenings to contain the spread of the virus.

The Ministry also revealed that two patients suffering from Covid-19, an Asian national and an Arab, had died due to complications caused by the virus. Both of the deceased had prior chronic illnesses. The total number of deaths has now reached 14.

UAE announced on Thursday that places of worship will be closed in the country until further notice - amid the coronavirus situation. Authorities decided to extend the closure of mosques, churches and other places of worship in the UAE until further notice for the safety of community members, Wam reported. The measure has been taken to prevent the spread of Covid-19 in the country.

The decision was taken in coordination with the National Authority for Emergency and Disaster Management, the General Authority for Islamic Affairs and Endowments, federal, local religious bodies and health authorities in the state.

Residents face deportation for breaking rules

People who repeatedly flout 'stay at home' measures and endanger others' lives are inviting harsh punishments including deportation, a senior police officer has said.

"The UAE's Attorney-General has already announced the fines and punishments for breaking rules on social distancing and curfew restrictions. Repeated offenders or those who commit crimes that have a 'snowball' effect on the society will be fined, jailed and deported at the end of their term," said Col Saeed Al Hajeri, head of the Cyber Crime Department at Dubai Police, in an exclusive interview with Khaleej Times.

Al Hajeri said the Dubai police are tightening the noose against violators by resorting to 'naming and shaming' them.

The officer said 'reckless residents' will face serious consequences as they are not allowing the government to serve the people.i.  

Movement permit not to be misused

The officer said residents should not misuse the movement permit introduced by the Dubai Police and those who go out without a permit will be fined on their Emirates ID. Al Hajeri said they expect residents to be highly responsible. "Those who are exempted from taking movement permit can use the company letter to go to work but not for other purposes. You cannot fool the system by obtaining a permit for buying medicine and then going out to visit your sister or brother."

Social media as a double-edged sword

Warning people against circulating rumours and videos mocking authorities, the he said people should instead use the time to be productive or creative.

"We encourage people to use this time to learn new skills and not create scams and endanger the society. This is a difficult time and it will pass. What is more important is what you gain out of this."

Col Al Hajeri said the Dubai Police are aware that many people are using social media as a positive tool and encourage them. "We encourage that, and want people to use social media for positive messaging, to spread awareness about personal hygiene, social distancing and various precautions to be followed."

13 new drive-through coronavirus test centres open across UAE

Thirteen new drive-through testing facilities for Covid-19 have been opened across the UAE over the recent days. The Abu Dhabi Media Office on Thursday reported that under the directives of His Highness Sheikkh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, 13 additional Covid-19 drive-through testing facilities were opened in 10 days, in addition to the centre previously opened in Zayed Sports City in AbuDhabi.

According to authorities, more than 12,000 people have been tested since the centres opened .

The examination process begins by booking an appointment in advance by calling the 8001717 Estijaba centre, or through the SEHA smart application, for an initial assessment.

Priority will be given to those with symptoms, senior citizens, pregnant women and those who suffer from chronic diseases.

Precautionary examinations costs Dh370, and payment will be done electronically through the SEHA application.
 
50,000 workers to be screened in a month

A massive initiative has been launched by healthcare provider Right Health and Al Futtaim Health's HealthHub to screen 50,000 workers for Covid-19 within a month.

Out of the 58 facilities across the UAE, 33 primary health centres of the Right Health are located at the workers' accommodation areas in Jebel Ali, Sonapur and Al Qouz.

"We will be working with businesses across the UAE to ensure their workforces stay safe and healthy. It is essential that private healthcare providers do everything they can to support the government's efforts to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. The objective of this campaign is to screen as many people as possible.

Crime falls by 96% in Sharjah

A massive drop in crimes has been observed in Sharjah after the implementation of Covid-19 precautionary measures. The crime rate has declined by 96 per cent, according to the Sharjah Police. Only 48 cases were reported in the emirate during this period compared to 717 cases registered last year.

Dispose of masks, gloves safely, say police

Motorists caught throwing face masks and gloves out of their vehicle windows will be fined Dh1,000 and six black points will be registered against their driving licences, the police have warned. The Abu Dhabi Police on Thursday said some people have been throwing used masks and gloves out of the car windows, violating traffic laws. "The masks and gloves pose a threat to public health and the environment. They may have been contaminated and lead to the spread of diseases," the police said in a statement. The police also noted that adhering to precautionary measures that prevent the spread of communicable diseases is everyone's responsibility.

Medical experts explain UAE's high Covid-19 recovery and low death rates

Compared to global rates of Covid-19, the UAE has been showing very high recovery and very low death rates.

According to statistics made available on the World O Meter, the Covid-19 death rate in the UAE is only 0.5 per cent of the total 2,659 infected.
Khaleej Times reached out to UAE doctors and medical experts who have attributed this phenomenon to the UAE's high healthcare standards, the country's predominant younger population, and residents' compliance to the Stay at Home guidelines.

'UAE age structure plays a role'

However, Dr Standford said: "Although death occurs at all ages, there is a predominance of the elderly. The age structure in the UAE is completely different from most countries outside the GCC as there is a predominance of young expatriates here under work permits.
He added: "Most (expatriates) will leave the country by the age of 60. There is therefore only 1.5 per cent of residents aged 65 or more. Compare this with a country like the UK where the equivalent number is 18.2 per cent."

Early intervention

Dr Jacob Cherian, specialist internal medicine, Medcare Medical Centre Marina and medical director for Medcare Medical Centres, attributed early intervention and intensive testing as one of the main reasons for the UAE's faster recovery rates.

"Compared to other countries, the UAE adopted early intervention measures. The UAE closed schools and limited social gatherings when there were hardly any cases," he said. Compliance from residents and a relatively younger and healthier population are other reasons for the lower death rates and high recovery rates, according to Dr Jacob.

Pakistan extends suspension flight operations till April 21

The Pakistan government has extended the suspension of domestic and international flight operations in the country until April 21 in a bid to contain the coronavirus spread, said a notification issued by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

In its last notification, the CAA had said that diplomatic, special/cargo flights and flights of national carrier to/from Pakistan holding special approval from the competent authority for transporting stranded passengers would be exempted from the ban.

May 11: Saudi Arabia will triple its value-added tax rate and suspend a cost of living allowance for state workers, it said on Monday, seeking to shield finances hit by low oil prices and a slump in demand for its lifeline export worsened by the new coronavirus.

Historic oil output cuts agreed by Riyadh and other major producers have given only limited support to prices after they sank on oversupply caused by a war for petroleum market share between the kingdom and its fellow oil titan Russia.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is also being hit hard by measures to fight the new coronavirus, which are likely to curb the pace and scale of economic reforms launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

"The cost of living allowance will be suspended as of June 1, and the value added tax will be increased to 15% from 5% as of July 1," Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in a statement reported by the state news agency. "These measures are painful but necessary to maintain financial and economic stability over the medium to long term...and to overcome the unprecedented coronavirus crisis with the least damage possible."

The austerity measures come after the kingdom posted a $9 billion budget deficit in the first quarter.

The minister said non-oil revenues were affected by the suspension and decline in economic activity, while spending had risen due to unplanned strains on the healthcare sector and the initiatives taken to support the economy.

"All these challenges have cut state revenues, pressured public finances to a level that is hard to deal with going forward without affecting the overall economy in the medium to long term, which requires more spending cuts and measures to support non-oil revenues stability," he added.

The government has cancelled and put on hold some operating and capital expenditures for some government agencies, and cut allocations for some reform initiatives and projects worth a total 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), the statement said.

Central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20 years and to their lowest since 2011, while oil revenues in the first three months of the year fell 24% from a year earlier to $34 billion, pulling total revenues down 22%.

"The reforms are positive from a fiscal side as greater adjustment is essential. However, the tripling of VAT is unlikely to help that much in 2020 revenue wise with the expected fall in consumption," said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

She said she kept unchanged her deficit forecast of 16.3% of GDP for this year, which already factors in a greater than previously announced spending cut.

About 1.5 million Saudis are employed in the government sector, according to official figures released in December.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia's King Salman ordered a monthly payment of 1,000 riyals ($267) to every state employee to compensate them for the rising living costs after the government hiked domestic gas prices and introduced value-added tax.

DIFFICULT TIMES

A committee has been formed to study all financial benefits paid to public sector employees and contractors, and will submit recommendations within 30 days, the statement said.

In late 2015, when oil prices fell from record highs, the kingdom slashed lavish bonuses, overtime payments and other benefits once considered routine perks in the public sector.

In a country without elections and with political legitimacy resting partly on distribution of oil revenue, the ability of citizens to adapt to such reforms is crucial for stability.

"Tripling the VAT will test the limits of the balance between revenues and consumption as the economy dives into a deep recession. The move will impact consumption and could also lower the expected revenues," said John Sfakianakis, a Gulf expert at the University of Cambridge.

"These are pro-austerity and pro-revenue moves rather than pro-growth ones," he said.

Hasnain Malik, head of equity strategy at Tellimer, said the VAT rise could bring about $24-$26.5 billion in additional non-oil fiscal revenue. The rise would hit consumer spending further but was a needed step towards fiscal sustainability, he said.