Saudi King Salman’s move spurs progress, stability

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Jeddah, Jul 8: The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) writes to the members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), urging the body to come in the way of a plan announced by Israel for annexation of significant portions of the occupied West Bank.

The letter was addressed by the 57-member organization’s Secretary-General Yousef al-Othaimeen to the UNSC’s members as well as the members of the Middle East Quartet — the European Union, Russia, United Nations, and United States— the Arabic-language Rai al-Youm news website reported on Tuesday.

The letter urged the Council to adopt “the necessary measures” that would prevent the annexation and compel Israel to stop all its illegal activities.

The OIC also urged the UNSC to hold an emergency meeting to “salvage the [remaining] opportunities for peace, and revive attempts at reinstatement of the political process under international supervision.” Such meeting, it added, had to enable realization of “the two-state solution, and [creation of] a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem [al-Quds] as its capital.”

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the plan to annex 30 percent of the occupied Palestinian territory — namely the areas upon which the regime has built its illegal settlements as well as the Jordan Valley — after US President Donald Trump backed the annexation in January.

Trump pledged the support while unveiling details of his Middle East scheme called the “deal of the century.”

The highly controversial scheme allegedly seeks to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but is heavily tilted in favor of the occupying regime. As well as backing the annexation, the scheme re-endorses Washington’s incendiary recognition in late 2017 of al-Quds as “Israel’s capital,” although Palestinians want the occupied holy city’s eastern part to serve as the capital of their future state.

Palestinians have roundly rejected either the American design or the Israeli plan that is rooted in it.

Tel Aviv had previously announced July 1 as the date it sought to start implementing the annexation plan. It, however, is yet to get it off the ground amid far-and-wide international condemnation and speculation that the plan was announced in the first place to deflect attention from a massive corruption scandal involving Netanyahu.

Countries warn Israel of consequences to bilateral ties

Also on Tuesday, Egypt, France, Germany, and Jordan warned Israel against going ahead with the plan, saying that doing so could have consequences for their bilateral relations with the Tel Aviv regime.

In a statement distributed by the German Foreign Ministry, the countries said their foreign ministers had discussed how to restart talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Most other European countries have likewise communicated their objection to the plan.

“We concur that any annexation of Palestinian territories occupied in 1967 would be a violation of international law and imperil the foundations of the peace process,” the European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers said, referring to the year, when Israel occupied the West Bank.

“We would not recognize any changes to the 1967 borders that are not agreed by both parties in the conflict,” they added. “It could also have consequences for the relationship with Israel.”

Israel had no immediate response. In a separate statement, however, Netanyahu’s office communicated Tel Aviv’s intransigence on the matter.

The statement said the Israeli premier had told his British counterpart Boris Johnson on Monday that he was committed to Trump’s “realistic” plan.

“Israel is prepared to conduct negotiations on the basis of President Trump’s peace plan, which is both creative and realistic, and will not return to the failed formulas of the past,” the statement alleged.

Asia, Jan 15: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on Wednesday said that killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani showed the ignorance and arrogance of the United States and asserted that Washington looks at things from their perspective and not keeping the interests of the region in mind."The US looks at things from their perspective, not from the perspective of this region. The killing of Qassem Soleimani shows ignorance and arrogance. 430 Indian cities saw protests against killing of Soleimani," Zarif said at an event.

Hitting out at US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, Zarif said that they were the only ones, along with the Islamic State (ISIS) who celebrated the death of Soleimani.

"Who is celebrating Soleimani's killing? President Trump, Pompeo and Daesh (Arabic name of ISIS). You wonder about strange bedfellows?" he said.

Tensions between the US and Iran soared dramatically earlier this month after Washington launched airstrikes at Baghdad International Airport, which killed Soleimani. Tehran retaliated by firing a volley of ballistic missiles at two military bases of US-led coalition forces in Iraq, leading to a strife in the region.

However, Zarif regretted the shooting down of the Ukrainian airline and said it happened because of "tension".

"Nine million people were out in the streets of Iran commemorating Soleimani. You cannot bring out so many people to protest. The shooting down of a plane was a mistake. 180 families are mourning the loss of their dear ones. It happened because of tension," he said.

Asked whether there a chance of a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis, Zarif ruled out negotiating with the US.

"Iran is interested in diplomacy. We are not interested in negotiating with the US. US did not keep its commitments under nuclear deal. We had a US deal and the US broke it. If we have a Trump deal, how long will it last?" he said.