SC commences hearing on Ayodhya land dispute case

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 20:  Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Monday said that the government would revoke the order, which allowed the opening of barbershops and restaurants in the State.

The development comes after the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) objected to the move.
When asked about the letter issued by the MHA terming certain decisions as to the dilution of guidelines, Chief Minister Vijayan said: "There is no confrontation between the State government and the Centre."

"Kerala is following all directions issued by the Centre. Barbershops will not be opened and restaurants will only provide online delivery," he told the reporters, adding that public transport would not be allowed.

"There was a decision to open barbershops but many experts have pointed out against the decision. So the Kerala government is withdrawing the decision," he said.

Earlier, Chief Secretary Tom Jose said that if needed, then the State government will make necessary modifications to the lockdown guidelines in the wake of a communication received from the Central government.

The MHA had objected to the decision of Kerala government to allow services like barbershops, local workshops, restaurants, etc., and had urged the State government to revise its lockdown guidelines.

The Government of India had said that violation to lockdown measures reported posed a serious health hazard to the public and risk the spread of COVID-19.

Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla wrote to all Chief Secretaries and a separate letter had been sent to the Kerala Chief Secretary asking them not to dilute lockdown guidelines in any manner.

In his letter to the Kerala Chief Secretary, Bhalla had stated that the consolidated revised guidelines on the measures to be taken by the Ministries/Departments of the Government of India has been circulated on April 15 for containment of COVID-19.

Kerala Minister Kadakampally Surendran had said that relaxations have been given abiding by the direction issued by the Central government. He had added that the Centre may have asked for an explanation due to some misunderstanding.

India is under a nation-wide lockdown that came into force on March 25 to contain the spread of coronavirus, which has claimed 559 lives in the country. Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the extension of lockdown till May 3.

Thiruvananthapuram, Mar 6: A 12-member team from Telangana on Friday visited Kerala to study how the state contained the spread of novel coronavirus.

Interacting with the team, Kerala Health Minister KK Shailaja said, "The team will be given a presentation at National Health Mission and they will visit Alappuzha district to know how the health facilities are set up by Kerala Health Department on the grassroots level."

"The team comprising doctors and senior health officials will visit the control room set up by the Health Department and also will attend daily review meetings. They will also visit an isolation ward in the hospital and interact with doctors and nurses, " the minister said.

She added, "Kerala model is being followed by other states too. All states are working together and the country as a whole is fighting the coronavirus. They are sharing our experience. All of India is standing together. Contact tracing and isolation is the most important part."

Dr Mahaboob Khan, part of the Telangana team told media persons, that the discussion with the health minister was fruitful.

"Kerala was the first state in India where a positive coronavirus case was reported. All three positive cases reported have been discharged after testing negative. So we wanted to study how Kerala was able to contain it and the health system in place here, " he said.