SC suspends triple talaq for 6 months, asks Parliament to make a law

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Bengaluru, Jul 14: The Karnataka government on Tuesday made changes to the Land Reforms Act 1961 through an ordinance to allow non-agriculturists to buy and own farmland for farming.

“The Land Reforms Act has been amended through an ordinance and notified after Governor Vajubhai R Vala gave his assent to it on Monday night,” a Revenue Department official told media persons.

It now permits non-farmers to buy farmland and grow food crops. But they can’t use it for other activities.

“Sections 79 A, B and C of the Act have been repealed, paving way for bona fide citizens to invest in farmland and take to farming as a hobby, passion or additional occupation, which is rewarding,” the official said.

The amended Act will enable the state to attract investment in the farm sector and boost food output. The farm sector’s contribution to the state’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been less than the manufacturing and services sectors over the last two decades.

Criticism by farmers, the Congress and the JD(S) since the cabinet approved changes on June 11 forced the state government to retain section 80 of the Act, with an amendment, to prevent sale of dam water irrigated farmland.

“The ordinance has also added a new section (80A), which says relaxations under the Act will not apply to land given to farmers under the Karnataka SC and ST (Scheduled Caste and Tribe) Act 1978,” the official said.

The changes permit mortgage of farmland only to the state-run institutions, firms and cooperative societies specified in the Act. The ordinance also makes legal cases pending in courts against the sections amended redundant as the new Act addresses the concerns raised in them.

“Besides generating substantial revenue for the state government, the Act will now allow farmers who find the occupation non-remunerative and risky due to droughts/floods and labour shortage to sell their surplus land to urban buyers,” the official said.

Ruling BJP Rajya Sabha member KC Ramamurthy from Bengaluru said the amended Act would allow any citizen to buy farmland.

“Though hundreds of people petitioned successive governments for the past 45 years to abolish the ‘draconian’ sections, they were ignored. I compliment Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa and Revenue Minister R Ashoka for the decision to allow everyone to buy farmland irrespective of their occupation or profession,” Ramamurthy told media persons.

New Delhi, Feb 28: They could hear shots being fired, sense smell of property and vehicles being burnt and feel the stones being pelted. Despite the mayhem that unfolded just a few steps away from their doorsteps, many Muslim households did not feel unsafe due to their Hindu neighbours during the violence in Delhi earlier this week.

Tarannum, a resident of Chand Bagh, said she cannot thank her neighbour Nem Singh enough for saving 15 members of her family that fateful night of February 25. Singh, an auto-rickshaw driver, lives right across her house.

"I could hear the thumping on the door. Our neighbour came to rescue us and assured us that no harm would come to our family, " said Tarannum who lives in lane number 7.

"We thought khayamat has come. Our kids too got scared. Those indulging in rioting are just terrorists. Hindu brothers gave us shelter and saved us. How should I say that they are Hindus or Muslims? When we were under attack, these Hindu brothers provided us safety. We should not fight, " said Tarannum while recounting the horror.

She said a mob has no face, no religion. "I want to tell everyone mob has no name, no religion. Kaun sa pathar kisne mara kisko laga pata hai kya? Pathar ne mazhab dekha kya? (Which stone was thrown by whom, who was hit, does anyone know. Stone does not have a religion," she said.

Singh said he could not bear the wailings of his neighbour's kids.

"Dar to tha par apni gali mein kisi ko pareshan nahi hone dena tha. (I too was afraid but I could not have let them hurt my neighbours)," said Singh when asked if he could have also been attacked for giving shelter to Tarannum family.

"I told them that the rioters will have to go through us first. We all were equally scared," recalled Singh.

Jameel, another local resident, said that his Hindu neighbours were even ready to sacrifice their lives to save him from the ruthless terrorists hired by pro-CAA politicians to unleash violence against Muslims.