Three tech predictions for 2013

January 2, 2013

tech_prediction

Sometimes the most important ideas in tech are hiding in plain sight. In that spirit, here are three predictions for 2013 that are just waiting to happen. No 3D TVs, wearable computer or jet packs for me — at least not this year.

The Kindle Offer You Can"t Refuse

Demand is rapidly shrinking for e-ink e-book readers. IHS iSuppli predicts that when the books close on 2012 some 15 million will have been sold — down 36 percent from 2011.

And why not? Tablets are getting cheaper. Sure, you can pick up an ad-supported Kindle for as little as $70. But why shell out even that when $200 gets you an e-reader, and a media player, and a gaming machine, and everything else?

Dedicated e-ink readers aren"t falling out of favor because the technology has been surpassed. They"re losing out because the value proposition has changed. There"s a simple solution. Make them inexpensive enough so that it becomes an offer you can"t refuse.

That will happen at $50. At that price, buying a niche item you might use only occasionally is a relatively easy decision. It would be a no-brainer for students. A stocking stuffer for pre-teens that might even tear them away from their gaming consoles. An afterthought.

Nobody but Jeff Bezos & Co. know what Amazon needs to make (or, more likely, can afford to lose) on even a bare-bones Kindle, though it is generally accepted wisdom that the Kindle line has value to the company as a loss leader for the sale of books — razors to blades, as it were. Amazon also has a history of pushing price barriers: it experimented with universally-priced $10 e-books — selling them below cost, to the consternation of publishers.

Amazon started the digital book revolution. E-ink technology was life-altering, and remains far too worthy to disappear. The only thing “wrong” with it is that it"s too expensive. Amazon is uniquely positioned to fix that and breathe new life into this still-revolutionary device.

The Netbook Strikes Back

E-readers managed to survive a metaphysical threat from tablets. Netbooks, not so much.

Netbooks — bare-bones, inexpensive, portable computers — were poised to change the world. But just as they burst on the scene, full-powered computers got just as small and just as light, like Apple"s MacBook Air. And then the iPad sucked out whatever air was left in the room.

Conditions have conspired again to make netbooks attractive. Advances in cloud computing make productivity activities — collaborating on and sharing documents — painless. That in turn makes hard drives — local storage — less important. Indeed, lighter flash drives with less capacity than hard drives are now de rigueur on high-end devices. And the biggest compromise of the netbook — the lack of a CD drive — is now increasingly irrelevant.

So who actually needs to pay for lots of bells and whistles?

Many of us do, of course. But many of us don"t. If you can spend $200 or so for a serviceable laptop you might think twice about “needing” something that costs $1,000 more.

Computing has been Balkanized by the mobile revolution. We work on our phones at least as much as on our laptops. We only discovered a need for tablets three years ago and now they dominate. Laptops are still essential for long periods of typing. But these days they are just another tool in the chest, a computer you resort to rather than seek out first.

Netbooks will become attractive again because the cult of the machine is shifting to big remote servers that allow us to use thinner, less expensive clients. And it is the upstarts in this space that have the most to gain — notably Google.

The search giant may be uniquely positioned to innovate because it has the resources and wherewithal to enter a commodity business with razor-thin margins. Google started pushing netbooks a couple of years ago and last year unveiled leasing plans for businesses and schools. It"s expanding now with direct-to-consumer sales of two models, the most expensive of which is a $250 machine built with Samsung — right in the sweet spot of tablet pricing and a fraction of the cost of comparable ultralights.

There is one big problem: given that these devices arrived with a thud the first time, the word “netbook” itself may have negative connotations — Google doesn"t use it at all, calling their netbooks “Chromebooks.”

So, let the makeover begin.

Take a letter, Siri!

Siri started a quiet revolution when it was introduced with the iPhone 4S in 2011. Like many Apple innovations, voice command was not something new — it was old and mostly reviled. Voice control never seemed to work well — and seemed curiously inappropriate — on desktop computers. And with Siri, sometimes it feels like she is from Venus and we are from Mars.

But, unlike with desktops, we naturally speak into our phones. So speaking to our phones to control our phones doesn"t seem odd at all. Full disclosure: I was hooked on Siri from the start, warts and all. Last year at about this time I described Siri as one of the previous year"s ''tech earthquakes.''

Siri wasn"t exactly the everyman's Watson, but my romance has not waned. There have, however, been some prominent divorces: The New York Times' Nick Bilton wrote a mournful Dear Siri letter in July, confessing that “last week I had what will probably be my last conversation with Siri for a while.”

But stick with me on this. Siri, and its Android equivalents, will catch fire in 2013.

The weakest link with a computer is always input — how we communicate with it. Keyboards, trackpads and gaming controllers are imperfect proxies. We are always looking for shortcuts to operate the computer as fast as we can think.

Much of the iPhone"s success is because it is so easy to operate — the interface keeps up with us like never before. I sketched out this column while running chores. There would have been no other way for me to capture snippets of ideas on the run without the ability to dictate and have my phone transcribe. And we all know we get our best ideas at the worst time: dashing to an appointment; running on the treadmill; sitting in traffic; in the middle of the night when lying in bed.

Siri"s acceptance has been slower than I expected — most iPhone users I know don"t use it (or admit to it). But voice control is everywhere now. Google"s Android-powered devices are, by some accounts, a match for Apple's tech. Siri and Android voice control both now open apps, making the switch among them even less complicated.

So here is what"s going to happen next year: There will be greater awareness of voice tech"s ability to take near-perfect dictation — maybe the least sexy feature, but the most useful in our daily lives. Siri and her cousins will gain wide acceptance for the simplest things they do, as improvements to the more complicated tasks gradually improve.

Google and Apple would be wise to nudge this along with marketing campaigns that emphasize not the Holy Grail 'semantic search' but the seemingly humble ability of mobile devices to do what they are told. It"s a big deal that they"re at our beck and call.

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Agencies
February 25,2020

Tokyo, Feb 25: Japan's Chitetsu Watanabe, recognized at 112 years as the oldest man in the world, has passed away 11 days after he received the Guinness World Record certificate, his family said on Tuesday.

Watanabe died on Sunday night, Efe news reported.

He received the official certificate on February 12 at a nursing home in Joetsu in Niigata prefecture, where he resided.

Soon after being certified as the oldest man, he began to experience a lack of appetite and respiratory problems, the wife of his eldest son told public broadcaster NHK.

Born on March 5, 1907 in a family of farmers, Watanabe moved at the age of 20 to Taiwan, where he worked at a sugar refinery for 18 years before returning to Japan after the end of World War II.

A fan of calligraphy, custard and ice cream, Watanabe told the Guinness team that the key to his long life was laughter.

He was recognized as the oldest male in the world following the deaths in 2019 of German Gustav Gerneth (in October), aged 114 years, and Japan's Masazo Nonaka (in January), at the age of 113, three months older than the German.

It remains to be seen who will be recognized after the death of Watanabe, the only male on the list drawn up by the Gerontology Research Group of the 30 oldest people in the world.

Japan has among the highest life expectancy in the world and the number of centenarians in the country has crossed 71,000, according to the latest government figures.

Since 2000, the number of centenarians censored has quintupled, raising concern for the economic outlook and future workforce of the country - where the birthrate is on a downward trend.

Out of these, 88 per cent are women.

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News Network
May 30,2020

May 30: Patients undergoing surgery after contracting the novel coronavirus are at an increased risk of postoperative death, according to a new study published in The Lancet journal which may lead to better treatment guidelines for COVID-19.

In the study, the scientists, including those from the University of Birmingham in the UK, examined data from 1,128 patients from 235 hospitals from a total of 24 countries.

Among COVID-19 patients who underwent surgery, they said the death rates approach those of the sickest patients admitted to intensive care after contracting the virus.

The scientists noted that SARS-CoV-2 infected patients who undergo surgery, experience substantially worse postoperative outcomes than would be expected for similar patients who do not have the infection.

According to the study, the 30-day mortality among these patients was nearly 24 per cent.

The researchers noted that mortality was disproportionately high across all subgroups, including those who underwent elective surgery (18.9 per cent), and emergency surgery (25.6 per cent).

Those who underwent minor surgery, such as appendicectomy or hernia repair (16.3 per cent), and major surgery such as hip surgery or for colon cancer also had higher mortality rates (26.9 per cent), the study said.

According to the study, the mortality rates were higher in men versus women, and in patients aged 70 years or over versus those aged under 70 years.

The scientists said in addition to age and sex, risk factors for postoperative death also included having severe pre-existing medical problems, undergoing cancer surgery, undergoing major procedures, and undergoing emergency surgery.

"We would normally expect mortality for patients having minor or elective surgery to be under 1 per cent, but our study suggests that in SARS-CoV-2 patients these mortality rates are much higher in both minor surgery (16.3%) and elective surgery (18.9%)," said study co-author Aneel Bhangu from the University of Birmingham.

Bhangu said these mortality rates are greater than those reported for even the highest-risk patients before the pandemic.

Citing an example from the 2019 UK National Emergency Laparotomy Audit report, he said the 30-day mortality was 16.9 per cent in the highest-risk patients.

Based on an earlier study across 58 countries, Bhangu said the 30-day mortality was 14.9 per cent in patients undergoing high-risk emergency surgery.

"We recommend that thresholds for surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic should be raised compared to normal practice," he said.

"For example, men aged 70 years and over undergoing emergency surgery are at particularly high risk of mortality, so these patients may benefit from their procedures being postponed," Bhangu added.

The study also noted that patients undergoing surgery are a vulnerable group at risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in hospital.

It noted that the patients may also be particularly susceptible to subsequent pulmonary complications, due to inflammatory and immunosuppressive responses to surgery and mechanical ventilation.

The scientists found that overall in the 30 days following surgery 51 per cent of patients developed a pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or required unexpected ventilation.

Nearly 82 per cent of the patients who died had experienced pulmonary complications, the researchers said.

"Worldwide an estimated 28.4 million elective operations were cancelled due to disruption caused by COVID-19," said co-author Dmitri Nepogodiev from the University of Birmingham.

"Our data suggests that it was the right decision to postpone operations at a time when patients were at risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 in hospital," Nepogodiev said.

According to the researchers, there's now an urgent need for investment by governments and health providers in to measures which ensure that as surgery restarts patient safety is prioritised.

They said this includes the provision of adequate personal protective equipment (PPE), establishment of pathways for rapid preoperative SARS-CoV-2 testing, and consideration of the role of dedicated 'cold' surgical centres.

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Agencies
May 17,2020

As millions of people get hooked to online dating platforms, their proliferation has led to online romance scams becoming a modern form of fraud that have spread in several societies along with the development of social media like Facebook Dating, warn researchers.

For example, extra-marital dating app Gleeden has crossed 10 lakh users in India in COVID-19 times while dating apps like Tinder and Bumble have gained immense popularity.

According to researchers from University of Siena and Scotte University Hospital led by Dr Andrea Pozza, via a fictitious Internet profile, the scammer develops a romantic relationship with the victim for 6-8 months, building a deep emotional bond to extort economic resources in a manipulative dynamic.

"There are two notable features: on the one hand, the double trauma of losing money and a relationship, on the other, the victim's shame upon discovery of the scam, an aspect that might lead to underestimation of the number of cases," the authors wrote in a paper published in the journal Clinical Practice & Epidemiology in Mental Health.

Around 1,400 dating sites/chats have been created over the last decade in North America alone. In the UK, 23 per cent of Internet users have met someone online with whom they had a romantic relationship for a certain period and even 6 per cent of married couples met through the web.

"The online dating industry has given rise to new forms of pathologies and crime, said the authors.

The results showed that 63 per cent of social media users and 3 per cent of the general population reported having been a victim at least once.

Women, middle-aged people, and individuals with higher tendencies to anxiety, romantic idealization of affective relations, impulsiveness and susceptibility to relational addiction are at higher risk of being victims of the scam.

Online romance scams are, in other words, relationships constructed through websites for the purpose of deceiving unsuspecting victims in order to extort money from them.

The scammer always acts empathetically and attempts to create the impression in the victim that the two are perfectly synced in their shared view of life.

"The declarations of the scammer become increasingly affectionate and according to some authors, a declaration of love is made within two weeks from initial contact," the study elaborated.

After this hookup phase, the scammer starts talking about the possibility of actually meeting up, which will be postponed several times due to apparently urgent problems or desperate situations such as accidents, deaths, surgeries or sudden hospitalizations for which the unwitting victim will be manipulated into sending money to cover the momentary emergency.

Using the strategy of "testing-the-water", the scammer asks the victim for small gifts, usually to ensure the continuance of the relationship, such as a webcam, which, if successful, leads to increasingly expensive gifts up to large sums of money.

When the money arrives from the victim, the scammer proposes a new encounter.

The request for money can also be made to cover the travel costs involved in the illusory meeting. In this phase, the victim may start having second thoughts or showing doubt about the intentions of the partner and gradually decide to break off the relationship.

"In other cases, the fraudulent relationship continues or even reinforces itself as the victim, under the influence of ambivalent emotions of ardor and fear of abandonment and deception, denies or rationalizes doubts to manage their feelings," said the study.

In some cases, the scammer may ask the victim to send intimate body photos that will be used as a sort of implicit blackmail to further bind the victim to the scammer.

Once the scam is discovered, the emotional reaction of the victim may go through various phases: feelings of shock, anger or shame, the perception of having been emotionally violated (a kind of emotional rape), loss of trust in people, a sensation of disgust towards oneself or the perpetrator of the crime and a feeling of mourning.

"Understanding the psychological characteristics of victims and scammers will allow at-risk personality profiles to be identified and prevention strategies to be developed," the authors suggested.

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