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New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, Feb 23: Dreaded underworld don Ravi Pujari, operating from overseas, has been reportedly arrested in South Africa and efforts are on for his deportation to India.

Pujari, who parted ways with underworld don Chhota Rajan, had jumped bail from Senegal, last year and had escaped to South Africa, where he was involved in big-time drug trafficking and extortion racket.

Sources in Indian Intelligence said that Ravi Pujari, who was hiding with a false identity of Anthony Fernandes, a Burkina Faso passport holder, was located in a remote village in South Africa.

On a tip-off from Indian external intelligence agency, the Senegal police air dashed South Africa last week. Pujari, 52, wanted in over 200 cases of heinous crimes, including murder and extortion, was detained with the help of South African agencies.

Sources in Mumbai Police said that Pujari's arrest has not yet been confirmed officially but Ministry of External Affairs is in touch with its mission in South Africa. An official in MEA refused to speak on the issue. Embassy of Senegal in Vasant Vihar, New Delhi, also did not respond to IANS' queries in connection with Pujari's arrest.

The mafioso first came into news in early 2000 when he started extorting huge amounts from famous Bollywood personalties and builders. He was involved in an attempt to murder case, aimed at killing a prominent lawyer of Mumbai.tip-off

Pujari's wife Padma and three children also fled India and some of them hold Burkina Faso passport. His son who was recently married in Australia reportedly holds an Australian passport.

Earlier last year Ravi Pujari, living under the identity of Anthony had jumped bailed from a Senegal court through fraudulent means. IANS had accessed the don's new passport. Pujari now goes under the name of Anthony Fernandes and is a citizen of Burkina Faso, a West African country, his date of birth is shown as 25.1.1961.

Pujari, a movie junkie influenced by Amitabh Bachchan's portrayal as Anthony Gonsalves in 'Amar Akbar Anthony' was using the name, Anthony Fernandes. This passport was issued on 10.7.2013 and is valid till 8.7.2023. The passport showed his profession as Agent Commercial which means that he is designated as a businessman running a chain of restaurants Namaste India in Senegal, Burkina Faso and neighbouring countries.

Pujari's lawyers in Senegal had argued in the court citing that he is Anthony Fernandes, a businessman from Burkina Faso as mentioned in his passport and not a fugitive as claimed by the Indian Government.

Clearly indicating a collision between top government functionaries of Burkina Faso and Pujari in which an influential Indian businessman, who is his partner in a restaurant chain, may have played the role of a conduit.

New Delhi, Jun 26: With the highest single-day spike of 17,296 COVID-19 cases reported in the last 24 hours, India's COVID-19 count reached 4,90,401 on Friday, said the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW).

The country also saw 407 deaths in the last 24 hours, which pushed the death toll to 15,301.

The total number of cases includes 1,89,463 active cases, 2,85,637cured/discharged/migrated cases, as per the MoHFW.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the total number of samples tested up to June 25 is 77,76,228; the number of samples tested on 25 June is 2,15,446.

Maharashtra remains the worst-affected state in the country with 1,47,741 cases. The active cases in the state are 63,357. The number of people cured or discharged stands at 77,453 while the death toll is at 6,931.

Delhi has so far reported 73,780 cases. The active cases in the national capital stood at 26,586. While the cured and discharged numbers stood at 44,765. The death toll in the city is 2,429.

Tamil Nadu has so far reported 70,977. With active cases at 30,067 and the number of cured or discharged at 39,999, while the death toll stood at 911.