Separate lanes for VIPs, judges at toll plazas across India: Court orders NHA

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

Mumbai, Jun 1: Singer-composer Wajid Khan of music director duo Sajid-Wajid, popular for their work on superstar Salman Khan's films such as "Wanted", "Dabangg" and "Ek Tha Tiger", died in early hours of Monday in a city hospital due to complications arising from a kidney infection. He was 42.

Music composer Salim Merchant, who confirmed the news of Wajid's death, said the composer was hospitalised few days ago at Surana Hospital, Chembur where his condition deteriorated.

"He had multiple issues. He had a kidney issue and had a transplant a while ago. But recently he got to know about kidney infection... He was on the ventilator for the last four days, after his situation started getting worse. Kidney infection was the beginning and then he got critical," Salim told PTI.

The music composer duo made their Bollywood debut with Salman's 1998 movie "Pyaar Kiya Toh Darna Kya" and went on to work on actor's various films including "Garv", "Tere Naam", "Tumko Na Bhool Payenge", "Partner" and the popular "Dabangg" franchise.

Wajid also did playback for Salman in chartbusters like "Mera He Jalwa", "Fevicol Se" and for Akshay Kumar in "Chinta Ta Chita Chita" from the film "Rowdy Rathore", among others. He recently co-composed Salman's songs "Pyaar Karona" and "Bhai Bhai", which the actor released on his YouTube channel.

Wajid along with his brother Sajid served as mentor on singing reality shows "Sa Re Ga Ma Pa 2012" and "Sa Re Ga Ma Pa Singing Superstar".

The composer duo also scored IPL 4 theme song, "Dhoom Dhoom Dhoom Dhadaka", which was sung by Wajid.

Soon after the news of the composer's demise broke, many from the film fraternity took to Twitter to pay tributes.

Actor Priyanka Chopra said she will always remember Wajid's smile.

"The one thing I will always remember is Wajid bhai's laugh. Always smiling. Gone too soon. My condolences to his family and everyone grieving. Rest in peace my friend. You are in my thoughts and prayers," she posted on Twitter.

Actor Parineeti Chopra said Wajid was one of the "nicest" men in the industry.

"Always singing. All heart. Always positive. You will truly be missed Wajid bhai," she tweeted.

Actor Varun Dhawan shared a picture of his filmmaker-father David Dhawan with Wajid and remembered the musician as one of the most positive people in Bollywood.

"Shocked hearing this news @wajidkhan7 bhai was extremely close to me and my family. He was one of the most positive people to be around. We will miss you Wajid bhai thank you for the music," he wrote.

Music composer-singer Vishal Dadlani said he was "heartbroken" after hearing the news.

"Both @SajidMusicKhan and @wajidkhan7 have been close & true friends. The kind who might see the light on and show up at our studio in the middle of the night just to meet and talk and share a laugh. Can't believe Wajid and I will never speak again," he wrote.

Singer-composer Shankar Mahadevan said he was still unable to come to terms with the news of Wajid's demise.

"Shocking ! Good bye dear brother.. love you .. till we meet on the other side ! Prayers for your peaceful journey Wajid bhai," he tweeted.

Singer Javed Ali posted, "Feeling Deeply Saddened after hearing shocking news of the sudden demise of Wajid Khan. May his Soul Rest in Peace. My heartfelt condolences to his family. May Allah give strength to the family."

The World Bank says that a lack of credit and drop in private consumption have led to a gloomy growth outlook for India with a steep cut in growth rate for the current fiscal year and only a modest gain projected for the next year.

India's growth rate is forecast to be only 5 per cent for the current fiscal year, weighed down by a growth of only 4.5 per cent in the July-September quarter, according to the 2020 Global Economic Prospects report released on Wednesday.

"In India, [economic] activity was constrained by insufficient credit availability, as well as by subdued private consumption," the Bank said.

The growth rate is forecast by the Bank to pick up to 5.8 per cent in the next fiscal year and to 6.1 per cent in 2021-22.

India's growth rate was 6.8 per cent in 2018-19.

The 5 per cent growth rate projection for the current financial year is a sharp cut of 2.5 per cent from the 7.5 per cent forecast made by the Bank in January last year, toppling it from the rank of the world's fastest growing economy.

India's performance follows a global trend of lowered growth weighed down by developed economies.

The report estimated world economic growth rate to be only 2.4 per cent last year and forecast it to edge up 0.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the current year.

Even with the lower growth rate of 5 per cent in the current fiscal year and 5.8 per cent forecast for the next, India holds the second rank among large economies, behind only China with an estimated growth rate of 6.1 per cent for 2019 and 5.9 per cent this year.

The report blamed "weak confidence, liquidity issues in the financial sector" and "weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies" for India's slowdown.

The Bank predicated India's recovery to 5.8 per cent in the coming financial year for India but "on the monetary policy stance remaining accommodative" and the assumption that "the stimulative fiscal and structural measures already taken will begin to pay off."

It also warned that sharper-than-expected slowdown in major external markets such as United States and Europe, would affect South Asia through trade, financial, and confidence channels, especially for countries with strong trade links to these economies."

The Bank said that the growth of advanced economies was 1.6 per cent last year and "is anticipated to slip to 1.4 per cent in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing."

In contrast the growth of emerging market and developing countries is expected to accelerate from 3.5 per cent last year to 4.1 per cent this year, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is estimated to have the highest growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year, although down from 8.1 per cent last fiscal year.

But its higher regional growth rates are coming off a lower base with a per capital gross domestic product of $1,698 compared to $2,010 for India.

Bangladesh is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the next financial year.

Pakistan's growth rate is estimated at only 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and is projected to rise to 3 per cent in the next, according to the Bank.

The Bank blamed monetary tightening in Pakistan for a sharp deceleration in fixed investment and a considerable softening in private consumption for the fall in growth rate from 3.3 per cent in the 2018-19 fiscal year.

Sri Lanka's growth rate was estimated to be 2.7 per cent last year and forecast to grow to 3.3 per cent this year.

Nepal grew by an estimated 6.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and will rise to 6.5 per cent in the next.