Serpentine airport queues to continue for at least next 3 more years: Report

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

Mumbai, Feb 17: The Shiv Sena on Monday said the ongoing preparation for the much awaited visit of US President Donald Trump is a reflection of the "slave mentality" of Indians.

Trump's India trip is like the visit of a "Badshah" (emperor), an editorial in Sena mouthpiece 'Saamana' said.

Taking a dig at the construction of a wall on a plot having several slum structures in Ahmedabad ahead of Trump's visit there, the Sena said the US president's trip would neither stop the fall of rupee's value in forex market nor offer betterment to those (slum dwellers) behind the wall.

"Before Independence, British King or Queen used to visit one of their slave nations like India. The kind of preparations going on from taxpayers' money for the arrival of Trump is similar to it. This reflects the slave mentality of Indians," it said.

The Sena also took a swipe at Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation's (AMC) move to build wall on a plot to "hide the slums" on the route through which Trump's convoy would pass.

"Former prime minister Indira Gandhi had once given the slogan 'Garibi Hatao', which was ridiculed for a long time. It seems now Modi's plan is 'Garibi chupao' (hide poverty)," the Marathi publication said.

Is there any financial allocation for such a wall being built in Ahmedabad? Is the US going to offer loan to India to build such walls across the country? it wondered.

"We have heard Trump is going to be in Ahmedabad for only three hours but the wall construction is costing almost Rs 100 crore to the state exchequer," it said.

It is basically a political arrangement between Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump, the Sena claimed.

Last year, 'Howdy, Modi!' (a mega event jointly addressed by the Indian prime minister and Trump) was organised in the US, it noted.

A similar programme, "Kem Chho Trump" (Gujarati expression for how are you Trump), has been now organised (in Ahmedabad) ahead of the US elections, chiefly because of a sizable number of Gujarati people living in America, the Shiv Sena claimed.

"But this visit of President Trump is neither going to stop further fall of rupee in the forex market nor offer betterment to those behind the wall (being built in front of slums in Ahmedabad)," it said.

The Sena said Trump is "not someone very wise or a statesman or someone who cares for the whole world", but he has to be treated with respect as he represents the mighty US.

"Sometimes you have to treat someone with respect to get your things done," it quipped.

The AMC on Friday said the construction of the wall, around four feet in height, was approved much before Trump's Gujarat visit was finalised.

Trump is scheduled to visit Modi's home state Gujarat on February 24.

He will visit the famous Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad and take part in a roadshow with Modi. After that, the two leaders will inaugurate a new cricket stadium in Motera and address a gathering there, with an expected audience of over a lakh people.

While it was earlier speculated that the programme would be called 'Kem Chho Trump', the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation on Sunday tweeted a series of posters confirming that the event is now christened as 'Namaste Trump', apparently to give it a pan-India appeal.

New Delhi, Jun 8: Abortion access to around 1.85 million women was compromised across the country due to the nationwide restrictions imposed in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, a study conducted by Ipas Development Foundation (IDF) revealed.

These abortions were compromised at all points of care, including public and private sector facilities and chemist outlets during 68-day lockdown and the first week of Unlock 0.1 period. The study assesses the near-term impact of COVID-19 on abortion access in India since March 25 when the lockdown was imposed across the country with the announcement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to contain the spread of novel coronavirus of COVID-19 pandemic.

It also highlights the need for a specially designed and integrated recovery plan for improving abortion services at facilities. The study estimates that access to abortion was highly compromised during lockdown 1 and 2 ( between March 25 and May 3) in which around 59 per cent of women seeking an abortion could not access the services.

However, with the Unlock phase or the recovery period as mentioned in the study starting on June 1, the situation is expected to improve - with 33 per cent abortions being compromised in 24 days. A huge number of women could not access safe abortion services during the lockdown, therefore it is extremely important that the healthcare system, public and private, is prepared to meet the needs of these women, the Ipas foundation says.

The model of the study strives to quantify the reduced access to abortions across three different points of care -public health facilities, private health facilities, and chemist outlets, said Vinoj Manning, CEO, Ipas Development Foundation in a statement.

"Majority of public health facilities and their staff are now focused on COVID-19 treatments and closures of private health facilities have compromised the access to safe abortions, which is a time-sensitive procedure."

He said that the study conducted by his foundation was to get a clearer picture of how COVID-19 restrictions have affected women seeking safe abortion services and what are the areas that would need focused efforts in the days to come.

Speaking on the methodology, Dr Sushanta Kumar Banerjee from Ipas Development Foundation said: "We conducted telephonic surveys and consulted with several experts from FOGSI leadership and social marketing organizations like PSI India Private Limited."

"After careful analysis of the data received from them, we have concluded that of the 3.9 million abortions that would have taken place in 3 months, access to around 1.85 million was compromised due to COVID-19 restrictions."

To facilitate the process Ipas Development Foundation has issued some initial recommendations which include: rapid mapping of facilities for first and second trimester abortions, assessing facilities' preparedness especially for second-trimester abortions, improving referral linkage and spread the word about the availability of the service, streamlining the supply chain for medical abortion drugs, and lastly including mechanisms to offset additional travel and out of pocket expenditures.

Ipas Development Foundation will be holding consultations with other partners and key stakeholders to facilitate meaningful collaborations to ensure access to safe abortions and ensure that no woman suffers long-term harm to her health due to lack of services.